Connecticut and Florida Question Suggestions

Connecticut and Florida won our vote on on where to poll this week. Obviously we'll look at the races for President and Senate in both states- what other questions would you like to see us ask?

A few programming notes:

-We're going to switch to likely voters for our polls this week. Here's what that entails. Right now when we call people for a poll the introduction is 'this is a short survey about some important Florida issues. We appreciate your participation. If you're not a registered voter, please hang up now.' Now the introduction will be 'This is a short survey about the Presidential election in Florida this fall. If you don't plan to vote in the Presidential election, please hang up now.' That's the entire shift. We will continue to use people who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 general elections (2006, 2008, or 2010) as the basis for who we call, as we have been doing throughout the cycle. As you can see the difference between our likely voter polls and what we've been doing over the course of the year is pretty subtle so if you're expecting huge shifts toward the GOP in our polls once we make this change you will probably be disappointed.

-Also over the next month we will be shifting toward doing more, but shorter, public polls. Each of the next 3 weeks we'll be doing 2 state polls plus a Republican Senate primary poll (Texas the first week, Missouri the second, Wisconsin the third.) After Wisconsin we'll do 3 state polls a week until Labor Day weekend and after that the plan is to go to 4 state polls a week for the duration. All plans of course subject to change depending on our private, paying, client load.

While we'll be doing more polls they're also going to be shorter- pretty much Presidential race, Senate/Governor race where applicable, and approvals for major politicians...at this point in the cycle I don't think people care about much more than that. After the election we'll go back to doing super comprehensive state polls as we shift our eyes toward 2014.

Comments

[Mark]

Would really like to see Lieberman's approval ratings as he gets ready to leave public office.

[Michael]

I suggest that for both states to have the Vice Presidential candidates for Romney's ticket again, they include:
Condoleezza Rice
Tim Pawlenty
Senator Portman
Bobby Jindal

Finally, I wish that you could add Jill Stein to the poll in Connecticut, the green party could make a big impact there where they could pull many of President Obama's votes from 2008 away and possibly, if Stein campaigns enough, create a race that Romney could win.

[Joe]

I would suggest polling the 5th District Congressional race. Very competitive primaries on both sides (with 1 candidate on each side currently involved in a FBI investigation). I think R and D primary polls on both sides would be much more interesting than R and D Senate primaries as they will be much closer.

[Alex]

CT: I'd like to see the Gov's approval numbers, the city ratings you've been doing lately, and/or favorabilty numbers for the state legislature.

Or a weirder one: favorability numbers for the universities in state: I would love to know what people think of Yale v UCONN etc

[Rich]

How about something along the lines of, "Are you more likely to support a candidate who backs stronger gun control laws this election cycle following the Colorado shootings?" Would be interesting to see in both states.

[John]

Question about shift in methodology:
Will you still be using the same skewed samples that produce results like Obama +14 in Michigan and Obama +10 Iowa or will you be using better representations of the voter populations?

[Dustin]

I would also like to suggest two items that I see above. I think including Jill Stein would be good. Libertarians are generally seen as more conservative which could affect Romney's numbers more than Obama's, but you don't include the Green party which is more liberal. To be balanced, you really should have the full picture or no 3rd party candidates at all. Also, not sure what you are using as an expected voter turnout when calling voters, but if you are using 2008 numbers that could explain your outlier polls and democratic bias compared to the results of the most recent special elections. You may want to make a change in order to keep your status as a reliable polling source.

[Mark Rosenthal]

Actually, a number of PPP polls have already been LV polls as of late, or? For instance, PPP / New America for Arizona (19.06), PPP for Colorado (19.06), PPP for Iowa (17.07), PPP for Maryland (24.05), PPP for Massachusetts (26.06), PPP for Montana (02.05), PPP for Nevada (13.06), PPP for Ohio (26.06), PPP for Oregon (26.06), PPP for Pennsylvania (22.05 but not 25.07), PPP for Washington State (20.06). Based on so many LV polls in the last two months, I assumed that you had already moved to a LV method.

[Srinivas Sunder]

CT questions:

i) To what extent is Linda M's WWE background something that makes her better acquainted with business and economic issues? Does her WWE background concern you at all?

ii) Is Malloy someone you see as a potential Prez/Veep candidate? How about Blumenthal?

iii) Have you seen McMahon's ads? Have they changed your mind about her since the last election?

iv) Also, thoughts about: Ned Lamont, Tom Foley

Florida
-------

i) Which candidate do you believe to be more pro-Israel? (whatever that means to you)

ii) How important is a candidate's pro-Israel stance a driver of your desire to vote for them (both US Sen and Prez)?

iii) Who do you believe will better protect programs like Medicare, Soc Sec and Medicaid?

iv) How important is that to you in your voting preferences for US Sen and Prez?

v & vi) Same set of questions in re: Cuba

Crosstabs between seniors, Medicare beneficiaries, ethnic groups (Cuban-Americans vs. Hispanics), etc. important, as well as having a sample that hits all the relevant groups, and weighting them fairly (not presuming to teach you statistics :-)).

[Hunter]

There's been some new buzz about Charlie Crist making a comeback with a new Op-Ed he wrote for the Washington Post, maybe check his favorables and put him against Alex Sink in a democratic primary.

[Eric]

How about support for Audit the Fed?

The House passed their Audit the Fed bill on July 25 by a vote of 327-98. Harry Reid has vowed to not bring up the Senate bill, S. 202, to the floor for a vote. Maybe if he sees how much support there is, he may change his mind.

[Steve]

How do you account for people who turned 18 after 2010?

[Dan]

I would like to see Governor approval ratings - and also potential matchups for the next election... would be interesting to see as some of Malloy's policies have not been popular.

Gay marriage favorability.

A question about gun laws as well.

[MO]

I'd like to see how much support Gary Johnson gets for the presidential race in both states.

[E]

The house race for CT4 should be interesting. The district only recently went to a Democrat during the 2008 wave, and every election since has been very close. It is a battle between moderates, so it would be great to get some information on how well Steve Obsitnik, the opponent with no prior public office experience, has introduced himself to the public.

[Justin]

It would be interesting to see whose vote Gary johnson takes more of. Also, ask about the recently repealed death penalty law in Connecticut, and same-sex marriage there as well.

[Mike]

In adition to the habitual data I would like to see:

CT
Gubernatorial 2014:
Malloy vs McMahon

FL
Jeb Bush for VP.
Marco Rubio for VP.

[Harrison]

FL Charlie Crist Dem Primaries for Governor (2014) and Senate (2016)
Conneticut- Approval ratings (Dan Malloy),Joe Lieberman
U.S House District 5

Also FL CT for presidential see about adding the following as possible VP nominees: Kelly Ayotte, Marco Rubio, Condoleeza Rice and Scott Walker.

[RAJensen]

PPP uses robo calls in their polls as does Rasmussen. Both are biased, Rasmussen to the GOP and PPP for the Democrats. Election laws forbid robo calls to cell phones. Time to drop Rasmussen and PPP from the 'poll of polls'.

[Daniele]

As for your polling going forward, I do hope that you will include some polling on referenda and initiative in those states that have high profile contests. This would include for example, referenda over the DREAM Act (MD), marijuana legalization (WA), gay marriage (WA, MD, MN, ME), and voter ID (MN).

[Bart DePalma]

"We will continue to use people who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 general elections (2006, 2008, or 2010) as the basis for who we call, as we have been doing throughout the cycle. As you can see the difference between our likely voter polls and what we've been doing over the course of the year is pretty subtle so if you're expecting huge shifts toward the GOP in our polls once we make this change you will probably be disappointed."

Just one of the past three elections? That is a none too subtle way of assuming that 2012 will be a replay of 2008. 2008 was an outlier election whose turnout pattern was unlike any prior and subsequent election over the past decade. If PPP is weighting their polls assuming a Democrat 39% to GOP 32% turnout, it will have a very rude surprise indeed in November.

[GH]

It would be cool to know how favourably Floridians view both Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush, and to know whether or not adding Rubio to the GOP ticket would help Romney's chances in Florida.

[Sal]

I'd like to see Gov. Malloy's approval ratings. Also, a hypothetical match up of Dem Senate candidate Chris Murphy and Republican Senate candidate Linda McMahon. The match up between Rep Jim Himes (D) and Steve Obsitnik (R) for CT-4 would also be very interesting.