Obama up in Florida

PPP's newest Florida poll finds little change in the state compared to mid-April. At that time Barack Obama led Mitt Romney 50-45 there, and now his advantage is 50-46. Voters in the state narrowly approve of Obama, 49/46, and continue to dislike Romney, giving him a 39/53 favorability rating.

Obama's strength is based on what's become a pretty predictable set of groups. He's up 57-39 with women, 61-36 with Hispanics, 93-7 with African Americans, and 65-27 with voters under 30. Romney's up 52-46 with seniors and 55-41 with whites but he'd need larger advantages with those demographics to be ahead overall.

Neither of Florida's most discussed Vice Presidential prospects would have a huge impact on the race. Marco Rubio is slightly popular with a 44/40 approval rating, but his presence on the ticket would only narrow Obama's lead to 49-46.  Rubio would help some with Hispanic voters, taking Obama's lead down to 55-40 with that group, but doesn't make a huge dent overall.

Jeb Bush wouldn't help Romney either. He has a 48/42 favorability rating but with him as the VP Obama's lead actually increases ever so slightly to 5 points at 50/45.

We also looked at a pair of longer shot Vice Presidential hopefuls- Governor Rick Scott and Congressman Allen West- and they would both be detrimental to Romney's prospects in the state. Scott's approval numbers have taken a step back in the wrong direction compared to April and now only 31% of voters give him good marks to 56% who disapprove. Only North Carolina's Bev Perdue is more unpopular among current Governors in our polling. If he was on the ticket Obama would lead Romney 52-38. Obviously Scott won't be on the ticket for that very reason but it really speaks to how much he hurts the Republican brand in the state, something that could help put Obama over the top come November.

West has a 21/30 favorability rating. It's 9/49 with African American voters, which should probably scuttle any Republican hope that he might help appeal to that segment of the electorate. If he was on the ticket Obama would lead Romney 49-38.

The bottom line on Florida has been the same in our last two polls of the state- it will be close this fall as it always is, but for now Obama is a modest favorite to take it again.

Full results here

Comments

[Mitch]

You are polling "voters" in this poll. What does this mean? Registered voters? Likely voters? Neither? Please don't play games with us, as something doesn't sound right.

If it is registered voters, say so in your summary.

[Scoonie]

I'm pretty sure it's a poll of registered voters. This early in the election, pretty much every poll you'll see if of registered voters.

[mary]

Please identify who you are polling? Registered, likely, or just any and all who answered the phone for goodness sakes.

[brooke]

So UNLESS Florida cheats again (hanging chads), Obama will win the state.

[Jay]

Your remark about the exit polls in Wisconsin showing Obama with a lead that corresponds to you polling was a bit surprising. First, you neglected to mention that the exit polls were wrong. It showed a tight race. It ended up being called within the first hour. Walker won by 7 points and your poll only had him up by 3. So, please don't get upset when I knock off 4 points from your Florida poll which would show an even race and would further be in line with the national polls.

[Todd Dugdale]

The confusion over registered vs. likely voters is compounded by HuffPo listing PPP surveys as "likely voters", even when the actual survey makes it clear that a RV sample is used.

[Bazinga!]

Mitch,

PPP has said before that they will switch to "likely voters" starting in August.

Until then they are polling "registered voters".

BTW:

PPP, are you polling the AZ-08 special too? If so, when?

[Kevin]

PPP is a democratic polling firm that over samples democrats for the most part while undersampling republicans and independents.

All one has to do is walk around florida to see that Obama is not going to win there this year.

[Bruce]

Jay: PPP's last poll showed the race at 50/47 Walker, with 3% undecided. The margin of error in that poll was 2.8%. Walker won by 53/46/1, which was basically within the margin of error. If anything PPP has a slight Republican bias as measured by Nate Silver. To count on an across the board 4% Democratic bias is lunacy... but go right ahead and think that.

[Manu]

If economy don't get much worse, Obama will win by a little shorter landslide than in 2008.This election's key is white voters not latinos, Midwest states and the southern swings in which improving Mccain white voters performance could boost Obama like Bush did in 2004, just look at the exit polls.