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June 05, 2012

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Mitch

You are polling "voters" in this poll. What does this mean? Registered voters? Likely voters? Neither? Please don't play games with us, as something doesn't sound right.

If it is registered voters, say so in your summary.

Scoonie

I'm pretty sure it's a poll of registered voters. This early in the election, pretty much every poll you'll see if of registered voters.

mary

Please identify who you are polling? Registered, likely, or just any and all who answered the phone for goodness sakes.

brooke

So UNLESS Florida cheats again (hanging chads), Obama will win the state.

Jay

Your remark about the exit polls in Wisconsin showing Obama with a lead that corresponds to you polling was a bit surprising. First, you neglected to mention that the exit polls were wrong. It showed a tight race. It ended up being called within the first hour. Walker won by 7 points and your poll only had him up by 3. So, please don't get upset when I knock off 4 points from your Florida poll which would show an even race and would further be in line with the national polls.

Todd Dugdale

The confusion over registered vs. likely voters is compounded by HuffPo listing PPP surveys as "likely voters", even when the actual survey makes it clear that a RV sample is used.

Bazinga!

Mitch,

PPP has said before that they will switch to "likely voters" starting in August.

Until then they are polling "registered voters".

BTW:

PPP, are you polling the AZ-08 special too? If so, when?

Kevin

PPP is a democratic polling firm that over samples democrats for the most part while undersampling republicans and independents.

All one has to do is walk around florida to see that Obama is not going to win there this year.

Bruce

Jay: PPP's last poll showed the race at 50/47 Walker, with 3% undecided. The margin of error in that poll was 2.8%. Walker won by 53/46/1, which was basically within the margin of error. If anything PPP has a slight Republican bias as measured by Nate Silver. To count on an across the board 4% Democratic bias is lunacy... but go right ahead and think that.

Manu

If economy don't get much worse, Obama will win by a little shorter landslide than in 2008.This election's key is white voters not latinos, Midwest states and the southern swings in which improving Mccain white voters performance could boost Obama like Bush did in 2004, just look at the exit polls.

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