Barack Obama continues to look like a shoo in to take Minnesota this fall. He leads Mitt Romney 54-39 there, numbers that are almost identical to a May SurveyUSA poll there that found him ahead 52-38.
The wide margin in Minnesota has a pretty simple explanation: voters there like Obama and they really don't care for Romney. Obama has a 52/43 approval rating, including 54/38 with independents. Romney's favorability rating meanwhile is 32/54. It's not terribly surprising to see him with poor numbers given that he didn't even finish in the top two in the Republican contest there- it is not one of his stronger states.
None of Minnesota's prominent Republican politicians would be able to make the state competitive if Romney chose them as his running mate either. Tim Pawlenty would help Romney a little bit, bringing Obama's advantage down to 52-41. Pawlenty's favorability numbers make it clear the Presidential race took a bit of a toll on his image though. Only 37% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 52% with a negative one.
On the other side of the spectrum when it comes to helping as a potential running mate is Michele Bachmann. She would actually cost Romney 6 points if he picked her, stretching Obama's lead out to 56-35. Independents would support Obama by a whooping 61-26 margin if Bachmann was on the Republican ticket. Bachmann could probably lay claim to the title of Minnesota's most unpopular politician. Just 33% of voters have a favorable opinion of her to 60% with a negative one.
Minnesota could get closer between now and November as Republicans start to unify more around Romney but for now it looks pretty safe for Obama.
Full results here
Sorry but I can't help but think that there is some kind of political motivation behind this poll.
You expect us to believe that in a state where voters typically back the democrat by about 1-3 points more than the national average, that Obama is ahead by 15?? That would imply that nationally, Obama is ahead by at least 12, which NOBODY believes.
MN is a D+2 state. Obama is probably ahead there but not by 15; maybe by 5. You guys really need to tone down the bias before it becomes too obvious.
Posted by: Steven M | June 07, 2012 at 04:58 PM
I guess there is now good reason to believe PPP is touching the scales just a little bit. A new poll from Purple Strategies came out today showing Romney up by 3 in Florida which makes perfect sense based on the national polls. You will recall PPP this week said Obama was up by 4, which I questioned. In every swing state you show Obama with a lead. It's just not possible if the state of the national race is even. So, it is with deep regret that while I will continue to read your polls, I no longer believe they are entirely accurate and will have to adjust for whatever bias is present. It appears to be around 3-4 points. I'm sure as we get closer to the election your polls will change and we will hear about how this group or that group suddenly and without warning changed it's views on the candidates thereby changing the results to more accurately reflect the vote. Rasmussen is accused of the same sort of bias in the other direction. Pollsters must be careful if their results seem out of sink with the national numbers.
Posted by: Jay | June 07, 2012 at 06:25 PM
Romney is doing worse than McCain? I find that most difficult to believe. But then again I thought Walker was up by more than 3 and I was right.
Posted by: Don Surber | June 08, 2012 at 11:32 AM