Barack Obama continues to look like a shoo in to take Minnesota this fall. He leads Mitt Romney 54-39 there, numbers that are almost identical to a May SurveyUSA poll there that found him ahead 52-38.
The wide margin in Minnesota has a pretty simple explanation: voters there like Obama and they really don't care for Romney. Obama has a 52/43 approval rating, including 54/38 with independents. Romney's favorability rating meanwhile is 32/54. It's not terribly surprising to see him with poor numbers given that he didn't even finish in the top two in the Republican contest there- it is not one of his stronger states.
None of Minnesota's prominent Republican politicians would be able to make the state competitive if Romney chose them as his running mate either. Tim Pawlenty would help Romney a little bit, bringing Obama's advantage down to 52-41. Pawlenty's favorability numbers make it clear the Presidential race took a bit of a toll on his image though. Only 37% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 52% with a negative one.
On the other side of the spectrum when it comes to helping as a potential running mate is Michele Bachmann. She would actually cost Romney 6 points if he picked her, stretching Obama's lead out to 56-35. Independents would support Obama by a whooping 61-26 margin if Bachmann was on the Republican ticket. Bachmann could probably lay claim to the title of Minnesota's most unpopular politician. Just 33% of voters have a favorable opinion of her to 60% with a negative one.
Minnesota could get closer between now and November as Republicans start to unify more around Romney but for now it looks pretty safe for Obama.
Full results here