Obama leads by 8 in Oregon

Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney just 50-42 in Oregon, a state that he won by 16 points in 2008 and where he led by 12 points in PPP's last poll, taken almost exactly a year ago.

The main reason the state's so close is that independents have really turned against Obama, and they support Romney by a 52-30 margin. But Oregon's still a pretty strongly Democratic state and with the party base unified around Obama at 86-8 it allows him to maintain a decent sized overall lead. Obama's also getting more support across party lines than Romney is, taking 11% of the Republican vote.

Oregon voters express only tepid approval for Obama's performance in office, with 49% of voters approving of him to 46% who disapprove. But Romney's lack of popularity makes it hard for him to pull closer in the state. Just 37% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 51% with a negative one.

Obama's approval in Oregon is remarkably unchanged over the last year. In June of 2011 his approval spread was 49/45, and his current 49/46 is basically the same. Romney's favorability numbers have improved slightly from 31/47 to their current 37/51 level.

Oregon has one of the most pronounced gender gaps we've seen in any state over the course of this campaign. Obama leads 60-34 with women, but trails 50-39 with men. Obama's under 50% with every age group except young voters, whose 61-29 support pushes him up to 50% overall.

Obama's not likely to lose Oregon but these numbers certainly do reflect a weakened position relative to 2008.

Democrats look safe in all of Oregon's partisan downballot races for this fall. Secretary of State Kate Brown leads challenger Knute Buehler 48-30, Attorney General nominee Ellen Rosenblum is up 46-33 on foe James Buchal, and Treasurer Ted Wheeler has a 46-34 advantage over Tom Cox.

The one race where Republicans look to have a chance to win is Labor Commissioner, which is a nonpartisan position. In contrast to the partisan offices where most voters have made up their minds, 56% of voters haven't decided who they're voting for yet. The race is essentially tied with Republican Bruce Starr ahead of Democratic incumbent Brad Avakian 23-21.

Full results here

Comments

[Jay Thompson]

I think Obama will win Oregon easily.

[Jeff]

Something tells me that Obama is going to win Oregon by a much bigger margin this election cycle than this poll currently predicts.

[Matt]

PDF link isn't working. Can you please fix or email it to me? Thank you!

[Steve]

Oregon is often oversimplified as a radical left wing state. However, don't forget that President Bush lost the state by just a mere points in 2004 and by less than half a point in 2000 (Ralph Nader to blame in 2000 but still). The fact that Mitt Romney is competitive here points to the fact that President Obama is in trouble this time around.

A question I have for PPP is when you ask for approval/disapproval, have you ever considered the strongly approve/somewhat approve and strongly disapprove/somewhat disapprove do get an idea of intensity? Rasmussen, for instance, does that and it helps illuminate things a little more on why someone's 'unfavorables' seem unnaturally high.

[Stephen Lorimor]

This poll is missing the margin of error information. The lower-left page of the .pdf file gives some minimal methodology information (dates, sample size, registered voters) but no MoE is ever provided. Twould be nice if you could add it to the above article.

[Rainierman]

Oregon might be a purple battleground state in 2012, but I think Obama will win OR by a small margin, echoing Gov Kitzhaber's incredibly tight win over Dudley and a lot of Obama stimulus went to Oregon. The Portland mayoral race is now between two moderate Democrats, both of whom have a SOLID history of working with Republicans (which is big news here.) There is a strong anti-rail, anti-bike-lane backlash in 2011-2012 caused by an uptick in lightrail crime, pedestrian & cyclist deaths by bus and truck. This has divided cyclists (exclusive paths vs car-heavy streets) and rallied motorists (trapped in two-lane hell). This year is going to be a squeaker for Oregon because Dem/Rep voters have already decided while independents have leaned over to Romney.

[Matthew]

No third party candidates polled? Why not?

[John]

Why hasn't a more recent poll been completed in Oregon? Though I know our state has traditionally voted Democratic there are many I know who voted for Obama in 2008 who are angry with what he has (and has not) done. These that I know will be voting against him this election. I believe Oregon will surprise quite a few this Nov. when the votes come in as to how close it will be. That's assuming that no voting fraud happens (on the part of Dems) here in Oregon when it comes to the counting. And Yes . . . I know that's a very big assumption to hope for concerning the lack of voter fraud / ballot counting . . .