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June 26, 2012

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Jay Thompson

I think Obama will win Oregon easily.

Jeff

Something tells me that Obama is going to win Oregon by a much bigger margin this election cycle than this poll currently predicts.

Matt

PDF link isn't working. Can you please fix or email it to me? Thank you!

Steve

Oregon is often oversimplified as a radical left wing state. However, don't forget that President Bush lost the state by just a mere points in 2004 and by less than half a point in 2000 (Ralph Nader to blame in 2000 but still). The fact that Mitt Romney is competitive here points to the fact that President Obama is in trouble this time around.

A question I have for PPP is when you ask for approval/disapproval, have you ever considered the strongly approve/somewhat approve and strongly disapprove/somewhat disapprove do get an idea of intensity? Rasmussen, for instance, does that and it helps illuminate things a little more on why someone's 'unfavorables' seem unnaturally high.

Stephen Lorimor

This poll is missing the margin of error information. The lower-left page of the .pdf file gives some minimal methodology information (dates, sample size, registered voters) but no MoE is ever provided. Twould be nice if you could add it to the above article.

Rainierman

Oregon might be a purple battleground state in 2012, but I think Obama will win OR by a small margin, echoing Gov Kitzhaber's incredibly tight win over Dudley and a lot of Obama stimulus went to Oregon. The Portland mayoral race is now between two moderate Democrats, both of whom have a SOLID history of working with Republicans (which is big news here.) There is a strong anti-rail, anti-bike-lane backlash in 2011-2012 caused by an uptick in lightrail crime, pedestrian & cyclist deaths by bus and truck. This has divided cyclists (exclusive paths vs car-heavy streets) and rallied motorists (trapped in two-lane hell). This year is going to be a squeaker for Oregon because Dem/Rep voters have already decided while independents have leaned over to Romney.

Matthew

No third party candidates polled? Why not?

John

Why hasn't a more recent poll been completed in Oregon? Though I know our state has traditionally voted Democratic there are many I know who voted for Obama in 2008 who are angry with what he has (and has not) done. These that I know will be voting against him this election. I believe Oregon will surprise quite a few this Nov. when the votes come in as to how close it will be. That's assuming that no voting fraud happens (on the part of Dems) here in Oregon when it comes to the counting. And Yes . . . I know that's a very big assumption to hope for concerning the lack of voter fraud / ballot counting . . .

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