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June 26, 2012

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Jay Thompson

I seriously don't think the candidate for VP is going to make a huge difference in any state. I just don't see it. I feel like Ohio is a must win the both sides democrats and republicans. Whoever wins it WILL win the general election.

smintheus

Romney isn't gaining, Obama is dropping slightly, mostly among Dems. How much of this drop is due to his low profile in the Wisconsin recall? Looking at long term trends, it's hard to see Obama dropping much further among either whites or Dems. So on the whole I see this as further bad news for Romney, who has a lot of persistent problems among Ohioans.

smintheus

Obama is supported by liberals by huge margins and moderates by substantial margins. Romney wins conservatives by large but not huge margins, that is by smaller margins than he needs with Obama winning moderates.

Romney also continues to be massively unpopular with women.

hilde

Interesting poll. But to poll 2 percent more dems in a state that the last election had 1 percent more registered reps makes it look a little skewed. I'd have to say a dead heat in this poll with other polls giving Romney the advantage.

Jeff

I don't agree with the comment that Ohio is a must win. I've been going through a lot of different sceneros and Obama can still win the election without Ohio or Florida. He just needs to carry Virgina and the rest of the swing states.

Either way I find it unlikely that Romney will win Ohio. He might win Florida but that depends on how much they can suppress the vote which can backfire on Romney.

Dustin Ingalls

2010 was a midterm election and a Republican wave year. Of course there was an R turnout advantage. But that's a different beast than a presidential election. 2012 will be much closer to 2008, which was D+8, according to exit polls.

John

Well, given the fact that FiveThirtyEight calculates PPP's house effect as D +3.1, I would say this race is a dead heat.

realnrh

The 'last election' had the highest Republican voter advantage in the last sixty years. Relying on a repeat of the 2010 electorate in 2012 is extremely unrealistic.

Obama 2012

Obama can win without Ohio (with Virginia and some western states.)

Romney needs it.

Matthew

Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, and Virgil Goode are all on the ballot in Ohio and were not included in the poll, so the results are invalid.

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