Obama lead in Ohio down to 3

Barack Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney in Ohio, 47-44.  But that's Obama's weakest showing in the state in PPP's polling since last October. He had led by 50-43 and 49-42 spreads in our two previous 2012 polls.

The big decline for Obama over the last couple months has been with white voters. He and Romney were basically tied with them earlier this year, but now Romney has opened up a 49-42 advantage with them. It's actually white Democrats with whom Obama's seen the biggest decline recently. In early May he had an 89-6 lead with them, but that's now declined to 78-16.

Obama's approval rating in Ohio has dipped to 44/51, a net 7 point drop from the polls earlier this year when voters split evenly on him at 48/48. That Obama has a small advantage in the state anyway is a testament to Romney's weakness as a candidate. Only 35% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 54% with a negative one. With Obama's approval numbers where they are he would almost definitely be trailing if the GOP had a top notch candidate against him- but it really just doesn't.

The breakdown of the undecideds in this race speaks to a deeply unhappy electorate. Obama's approval rating with them is 9%, with 65% disapproving of him. But Romney barely fares better, with 9% rating him favorably and 61% holding a negative opinion of him.

Obama continues to have a tenuous lead in Ohio based largely on his support with three core constituencies: African Americans (93-6), young voters (54-36), and women (52-41).

Rob Portman continues to be at the center of Vice Presidential buzz but that's not doing much to raise his profile in his home state. Only 63% of Ohio voters have an opinion about him with 32% approving and 31% disapproving. PPP's polled on almost every Senator in the country and there isn't any other one who fewer people have an opinion about in their home states. If Portman was added to the ticket it would have basically no impact on the overall numbers, with Obama leading a Romney/Portman ticket 47-43.

We also tested John Kasich and John Boehner as potential running mate choices, less because they're realistic options than because it's a good measure of the Republican brand in Ohio. Kasich has a 40/48 approval rating and if he was on the ticket Obama's lead would expand to 48/42. And Boehner has a 34/46 approval rating- if he was Romney's running mate Obama's lead would push out to 49/41. Ohio doesn't much care for its GOP politicians and that could explain part of the willingness of voters in the state to support Obama despite being less than thrilled with his job performance to date.

Obama remains a modest favorite in Ohio but his struggles with white voters are starting to make it look dicier for him.

Full results here

Comments

[Jay Thompson]

I seriously don't think the candidate for VP is going to make a huge difference in any state. I just don't see it. I feel like Ohio is a must win the both sides democrats and republicans. Whoever wins it WILL win the general election.

[smintheus]

Romney isn't gaining, Obama is dropping slightly, mostly among Dems. How much of this drop is due to his low profile in the Wisconsin recall? Looking at long term trends, it's hard to see Obama dropping much further among either whites or Dems. So on the whole I see this as further bad news for Romney, who has a lot of persistent problems among Ohioans.

[smintheus]

Obama is supported by liberals by huge margins and moderates by substantial margins. Romney wins conservatives by large but not huge margins, that is by smaller margins than he needs with Obama winning moderates.

Romney also continues to be massively unpopular with women.

[hilde]

Interesting poll. But to poll 2 percent more dems in a state that the last election had 1 percent more registered reps makes it look a little skewed. I'd have to say a dead heat in this poll with other polls giving Romney the advantage.

[Jeff]

I don't agree with the comment that Ohio is a must win. I've been going through a lot of different sceneros and Obama can still win the election without Ohio or Florida. He just needs to carry Virgina and the rest of the swing states.

Either way I find it unlikely that Romney will win Ohio. He might win Florida but that depends on how much they can suppress the vote which can backfire on Romney.

[Dustin Ingalls]

2010 was a midterm election and a Republican wave year. Of course there was an R turnout advantage. But that's a different beast than a presidential election. 2012 will be much closer to 2008, which was D+8, according to exit polls.

[John]

Well, given the fact that FiveThirtyEight calculates PPP's house effect as D +3.1, I would say this race is a dead heat.

[realnrh]

The 'last election' had the highest Republican voter advantage in the last sixty years. Relying on a repeat of the 2010 electorate in 2012 is extremely unrealistic.

[Obama 2012]

Obama can win without Ohio (with Virginia and some western states.)

Romney needs it.

[Matthew]

Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, and Virgil Goode are all on the ballot in Ohio and were not included in the poll, so the results are invalid.