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June 13, 2012

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Sophie

I'm a bit concerned that most of your polls regarding the recent contests (Wisconsin gubernatorial race, Senate recalls, and AZ-08) were Democrat-biased by ~3-6 points. I realize that polling in special elections and recalls is an extremely difficult job, which you've done a stellar job with at the post, but I think it may be useful to do a postmortem analysis post, in which you assess the potential reasons for this.

I've tended to rely on PPP results to the exclusion of other pollsters in the past due to your stellar record, but I'm starting to worry that doing so this year will give me an overly optimistic view of the electoral battleground.

John

The Daily Kos actually looked into a possible bias for PPP using the 8 most recent elections (WI recall, 4 house special elections, 1 gov special election, and 2 gov elections in 2011). The average came to D+3.75 for those races, so I would say that there may be some kind of variable that PPP is not accounting for that's producing a bias.

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