For the first time in its Washington polling PPP now finds a majority of the state's voters in support of gay marriage. 51% think it should be legal to 42% who believe it should be illegal. When PPP first polled on the issue last May Washington voters supported it 46/44. By February it had inched up to 49/44 before hitting its current 51/42 mark. It looks like the state's new law legalizing same sex marriages will probably be upheld this fall.
Republicans have barely moved over the last year but Democrats and independents have both increased their support for gay marriage. Democrats have gone from 76/17 to 82/13 support over that period of time. Independents have gone from being almost evenly divided at 41/42 to favoring it 53/39.
We see the standard large generational gap on this issue in Washington. Seniors are opposed to gay marriage 56/35, but people under 65 support it by a wide 55/39 margin. When you broaden the discussion to civil unions 77% of Washington voters support some form of legal recognition for same sex couples to only 21% completely opposed. Even 56% of Republicans favor some kind of recognition.
Washington is also leaning toward legalizing marijuana. 50% of voters now say they'll support Initiative 502 to 37% who are opposed. That's a slight increase in support for the initiative relative to our last poll, which found it ahead 47/39.
There's a similar generational divide on this issue to gay marriage. Seniors oppose it 45/35, but voters under 65 favor it by a 54/36 spread.
The Governor's race continues to look like a toss up. Rob McKenna has a slight edge over Jay Inslee at 43-40. The undecideds skew strongly Democratic though. 63% of them voted for Barack Obama in 2008 to only 27% who supported John McCain. Assuming most of those folks end up 'coming home' it's going to be very much a tie race.
We've found this to be a very steady contest over the course of the least year. Our 3 polls have found McKenna +2, a tie, and McKenna +3. This has the potential to be a down to the wire race similar to the 2004 contest in Washington.
The Oklahoma City Thunder skipped out of Seattle but any residual animosity from that in Washington isn't enough to drive the state's voters to root for the Heat. 71% of voters don't care about the NBA finals one way or the other but among those who do 16% are rooting for the Thunder and 13% for the Heat.
Full results here
I am baffled as to why you didn't ask something closer to the ballot wording but rather just a generic legal/illegal question? Considering that polling consistently understates opposition to same-sex marriage (your firm included as shown by your recent failure to accurately predict the North Carolina vote), I would say that the marriage question is a toss-up in Washington State. Wouldn't you agree? After all, it was PPP who said that polls on this issue simply cannot be trusted.
Posted by: Andrew | June 19, 2012 at 02:02 PM
Another way to interpret the results in a much more telling way is looking at the question with civil unions included. When you do that, 51% are against "marriage" (either supporting an alternative or rejecting it entirely) and 47% support it.
Posted by: John | June 19, 2012 at 02:34 PM
For the second time, PPP has failed to properly poll the gay marriage question.
Washington has an approved referendum (R74) which will appear on the ballot. When there is a specific referendum on the ballot, PPP should poll on the language of the referendum and not solely poll in its usual format. This is particularly puzzling since PPP did poll on the specific ballot language in NC and most recently in MN.
In MN, PPP commendably polled on both the actual referendum language and on your standard questions. However, in MN the unique twist in the election is that a non-vote on the question counts as a "no" vote. So it was an omission on PPP's part to not poll on respondents' intent to cast a vote on the specific question.
PPP still does the best polling on this issue of any polling organization. However, the quality of your efforts would improve if you could remember to tweak the questions to match the particulars of the state in which you are polling.
Posted by: Gerald | June 19, 2012 at 05:35 PM
And PPP ignores the historic over stating of support for same-sex marriage again...
Posted by: Michael Worley | June 19, 2012 at 06:00 PM
PPP is a cheerleader for liberal causes, so of course they push that narrative. I predict the marriage law is defeated; in fact, I almost guarantee it. No state will vote in favor of gay marriage this year, if ever. Its proponents really need to move on and find another issue, with 35 states having shot it down by the end of this year. America clearly does not want it.
Posted by: Julianne C | June 20, 2012 at 07:45 PM
Julianne, how about we vote and pass discrimnation against you , lets see how fast you move on from trying to stop it
Posted by: Lee | June 21, 2012 at 02:49 PM
Okay, Julie, if you want to guarantee it, put your money where your mouth is. You go take out a ten thousand dollar bet (you know, the Republican standard size) on InTrade on that position. We'll check back in November to see how you did.
Posted by: realnrh | June 21, 2012 at 04:51 PM
Lee, Give me a break, you are the ones trying to change the law into something most Americans do not want. Maybe if you had any decent arguments for redefining marriage other than "wah wah discrimination" more people would support your cause. Won't ever happen.
Posted by: Julianne C | June 21, 2012 at 11:33 PM
@Michael Worley:
Sorry to disappoint you, but PPP has the best track record of polling on this issue of any polling organization. They call it right, regardless of whether the result will please a "liberal" or a "conservative." They accurately called the ballot measures in CA, ME, and NC.
That having been said, I reiterate my point above that PPP should poll on the actual ballot language, as it did in NC and as it is doing in MN and ME.
Posted by: Gerald | June 23, 2012 at 12:57 AM
Julianne, you little hypocrite: when people are denied their rights, they fight for them! "Wah wah"? Is that what you call women's fight for suffrage, the end of Segregation in America or ending laws against interracial marriages? You obviously don't care about other people than yourself being denied their rights, so try to put yourself in our shoes and imagine to not be able to marry the one you love. Let's hear you "wah wah" for your rights, you stupid piece of shit.
Posted by: Frank Riese | November 05, 2012 at 02:06 PM
Referendum R-74 has been APPROVED! Thank you, Washington! Thank you to everyone who stood in for what is right, who stood in for equality!
Opponents of the measure, watch closely: let us see how none of the lies that have been spread about equality will come into being.
Specifically:
- There will be no religious groups coerced into marrying same-sex couples.
- There will be no change in curricula (I trust whoever wants to will continue lying to their kids).
- There will be no lawsuits (we will take our business where we know it is appreciated).
But there will be one thing: EQUALITY! DOMA IS NEXT!!!
Posted by: Frank Riese | November 06, 2012 at 11:49 PM
I just wished I could see Julianne's face today. I hope she gets over her archaic views and stops hating people and denying their rights. I'm not gay, but I think it's great that our state has made this great step and shows how progressive we are.
Posted by: Eric H | November 07, 2012 at 10:52 AM