Kitzhaber, Merkley could be vulnerable in 2014

Barack Obama has the advantage in Oregon for this fall, but there are early indications that the state could be pretty competitive in 2014.

John Kitzhaber has a 45/39 approval rating in the second year of his second go around as Governor, decent numbers but not exactly ones that will drive off strong opposition. Jeff Merkley's approval rating is only 37% a little more than half way through his first term in the Senate with 34% of voters disapproving of him. A higher than normal 29% of voters have no opinion about him one way or the other, suggesting a pretty low profile in the state.

Republicans don't have a long bench in Oregon. We tested four people in hypothetical contests against both- Congressman Greg Walden, State GOP chair Allen Alley, co-Speaker of the House Bruce Hanna, and State Senator Jason Atkinson. None of them have even 50% name recognition, but they all hold Kitzhaber and Merkley under 50% in hypothetical head to heads.

Walden is the strongest candidate out of that group. He would run basically even if he sought a promotion to either office, trailing Kitzhaber 42-41 but leading Merkley 42-40. 27% of voters have a favorable opinion of Walden to 16% with an unfavorable one, solid numbers among the small swath of the electorate that is familiar with him.

Kitzhaber leads Alley, Hanna, and Atkinson by 10-15 points but runs at only 45-46% against each of them. Merkley likewise leads that trio by 6-9 points but gets only 43% against each of them.

It's impossible to say what the political climate will look like in 2014, but at least for now it looks like a couple of Oregon's leading Democrats could be vulnerable next time around.

One Democrat who wouldn't have anything to worry about is Ron Wyden- he is easily the state's most popular politician with 54% of voters approving of him to 27% who disapprove. That ranks Wyden among the most well liked Senators in the country.

Full results here

Comments

[Michael]

This confirms that Oregon is a very moderate state and in this year should be considered as possibly earning battleground status. With two polls in a row showing President Obama below a double digit lead and one of them below 5 points indicates that if Mitt Romney spent time in Oregon it might pay off with 7 electoral votes.