-Several polls have shown now that Rick Scott would lose in 2014 if Charlie Crist became a Democrat and ran against him but our newest survey finds that Democrats might not need that high of a profile candidate to knock off Scott, at least if he remains this unpopular. 5% of voters in the state have a positive opinion of State Senator Nan Rich. Only 14% have even heard of her. And despite that she still leads Scott by 12 points in a hypothetical match up, 47-35.
Obviously that finding has a lot more to do with Scott than it does with Rich. His approval rating has sunk back down to 31%, with 56% of voters disapproving of him. One thing that hasn't done his popularity any favors lately is his push to eliminate some people from the voter rolls. Only 34% of voters approve of that effort to 50% who disagree with it.
Some people have compared Scott to Wisconsin's Scott Walker, saying he could have a similar sort of resurrection in his standing. But the lowest level of popularity Walker ever hit in our polling was 43%. That would be a record high for Scott if he ever got there.
-Like voters in most of the country Floridians are moving on gay marriage. They're still narrowly against it with 45% opposed and 42% supportive. But that three point margin represents an 8 point shift from last September when 48% were opposed and just 37% in support. This very much looks to be an Obama effect. Republicans and independents have moved very little on the issue but Democrats have moved 20 points from +15 support (48/33) to +35 support (61/26). The most dramatic movement has been among African Americans who've shifted 48 points from being opposed -30 in the fall (23/53) to now supporting it by 18 points (49/31).
-There are major partisan and racial divides when it comes to the attitude of Floridians toward the Heat and their playoff run. Overall 36% of voters in the state say they're rooting for the Heat while 28% say they are not, and 35% are not sure. Democrats are pulling for the Heat by a 47/23 margin, but Republicans say they are not by a 29/34 spread. The contrasts are more stark along racial lines. 75% of African Americans are pulling for the Heat to 10% who are not, but only 29% of whites want them to win while 31% don't.
Interestingly only 51% of Florida voters have an opinion about LeBron James (32/19) and that drops to 46% for Dwayne Wade (37/9) and 34% for Chris Bosh (25/9.) There are big divides along racial lines in all their numbers. James is at 26/20 with whites and 63/7 with African Americans. For Wade those breakdowns are 30/8 and 73/4 and for Bosh they're 18/9 and 61/4.
Full results here