Brown, Warren tied

PPP's newest poll on the Massachusetts Senate race finds it dead even, with Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown both at 46%. Warren's now been at that exact same 46% mark in three PPP polls in a row dating back to last September. Brown's increased his support from levels of 41% and 44% on those previous two polls.

Brown's numbers have experienced a bit of a resurgence in the last few months. His approval rating is back over 50%, with 51% of voters approving of him to 38% who disapprove. He had been at 45/42 and 44/45 on PPP's last two polls. Brown's approval with independents who have an opinion about him is now better than 2:1 at 60/29. And he's reclaiming some of his crossover support from Democrats with 30% approving of him, up from 23% in March.

Brown is conveying the sort of centrist, independent image he'll need in order to win this fall. Only 34% of voters think he's too conservative to 48% who say he's ideologically 'about right.' And 49% say he's been an 'independent voice for Massachusetts' to 39% who say he's been more a 'partisan voice for the national Republican Party.'

Warren's popular too with 47% of voters rating her favorably to 38% with a negative opinion. Political races where voters like both candidates have been few and far between in recent election cycles. Warren was at 46/33 in March so her negatives have climbed a little bit since then, but it could be a lot worse given the press coverage she's received since that time.

Brown's running even in the heavily Democratic state for two main reasons. One is that strong standing with independents- he leads 57-33 with them, up from 48-36 three months ago. And he's also getting a good amount of crossover support, with 18% of Democrats voting for him compared to 9% of Republicans who are supporting Warren.

This race is ultimately going to be decided by Obama independents. The undecideds for Senate are planning to vote for Obama over Mitt Romney by a 60/13 margin. 62% of them are independents to 31% who are Democrats and just 7% who are Republicans. On paper it seems like Warren has a lot more room to grow. But those who haven't made up their minds yet like both candidates. Brown has a 43/19 approval rating with them and Warren's favorability is 40/15. Unlike in the Presidential race where swing voters are trying to decide who they think is the lesser of two evils, in this contest voters are trying to choose between two candidates who they see pretty favorably. There are already a lot of Obama/Brown voters and it's quite possible there will be more of them.

The Massachusetts Senate contest has been tight ever since Elizabeth Warren announced she was getting into the field, and there's not much reason to think that's going to change any time soon.

Full results here

Comments

[Dan]

Scott Brown is just what the state needs and just what the Senate needs. He's an independent voice who puts the well-being of the American people over party lines. Not only that, he's man we can all relate to. Someone who has worked tirelessly serving not only the American people, but his family.

[Connor]

This is proof that Senator Brown's Independent voice is being heard throughout Massachusetts. It is important to realize that unlike other congressman Senator Brown truly works to represent the needs and wishes of the people of Massachusetts over those of the GOP.

[Charles]

Senator Brown will need the overwhelming support of the independents along with a solid number of democrats willing to vote across party lines in order to win re-election. This is Massachusetts, and the odds have been against him since the special election in 2010- as we all know Massachusetts leans hard left.

That said, I think Scott's election in 2010 and the new poll numbers indicating such high approval ratings at a time when there is very little good will for elected officials serve as testament to the independence and open mindedness of Mass voters. Senator Brown has followed through on his promise to remain an independent voice committed to representing the commonwealth, and I hope we reward him with re-election.

Increasingly the nation divides itself up along part lines, but I'm hoping Massachusetts can buck that trend. In Washington, Senator Brown voted with Massachusetts' best interest in mind. Voters should find the courage to do the same on election day.

[Jerry]

Brown's going all the way! May be tied at the top line but the rest of the numbers look goood

[Jeanabella]

Sen. Brown has not voted in the interests of the people of MA unless you're a banker, not if you're a woman (equal pay was voted down by Brown & gop).
Forbes labeled Brown "Wall Streets Favorite Congressman"
He's a poser!

Elizabeth Warren wants to debate but Scott is afraid!

Koch Bros. support Brown and they don't have our citizens issues in mind, just de-regulation!!!
Wake up to the GOP corporate greed.

[Jeanabella]

just read the first few comments which sound like they were posted by Brown's staff.

Look at Browns voting record & see if he votes for the people of MA.

I can still see him shaking David Koch's hand as he asked him for more help!

[Bruce]

I'm not sure how Scott Brown will pull this off. With each of his votes, his GOP right-wing leanings become more and more apparent. His fundraising emails talk about his intention to obstruct Obama, if Obama is elected to a second term. He joins with the GOP and filibusters the debate on student loan interest rates. Massachusetts voters are beginning to understand that a vote for Scott Brown is a vote for a GOP Senate. He has shown himself to be neither moderate, nor bi-partisan, nor independent. It's an act.

[realnrh]

People in Massachusetts aren't paying a great deal of attention yet. When Brown starts having to actually defend his record of voting with the Republicans the vast majority of the time, he'll lose that crossover support. Particularly if the Presidential race is uncompetitive at the national level and President Obama can do some campaigning for Warren.

[Mike]

Brown votes with his party when his vote counts. Everything else is smoke and mirrors. The more Elizabeth Warren gets his voting record out there the better she will do.