Public Policy Polling

North Carolina, Virginia, and Wisconsin Question Suggestions

We're not doing any public polls this weekend- the only releases from PPP next week will be a few leftovers from our Massachusetts, Ohio, and Oregon polls this week.

We're going to go ahead and start putting together next weekend's polls in North Carolina, Virginia, and Wisconsin though. Obviously in all three states we'll look at the Presidential race, and we'll look at the contests for Governor in North Carolina and for the Senate in Virginia and Wisconsin. Beyond those things what would you like to see us ask about on these polls?

Have a good weekend!

MA okay with gay marriage, Sox fans with Bobby V

Raleigh, N.C. – As everywhere, public opinion is moving toward same-sex marriage in Massachusetts, which is one of only a few states where it is legal.  62% want it to be legal and only 30% illegal, up from 58-31 in March, 60-30 last September, and 59-33 last June.

Even two-thirds of those who do not like that gay marriage is offered by the state think gay couples should at least have the option of civil unions with the same legal rights.  Overall, 88% of Massachusetts voters think same-sex couples should be able to form a legal union, whatever it is called.

Most voters do not think the advent of gay marriage has had any impact on their lives.  64% said it has not affected their own day-to-day lives at all, and more (20%) say it has had a positive effect than a negative one (16%).  That is consistent with numbers when the same question was asked in the previous two polls.  Even 59% of those who think it should be illegal again say it has not curbed their lifestyle.

Massachusetts Miscellany

-Support is growing for the legalization of medical marijuana in Massachusetts, which is likely to be on the ballot this fall. 57% of voters say they are in favor of it to 33% who are opposed, representing an increase in support from March when the spread was 53/35. This breaks down very much as a generational issue with all three age groups under 65 giving it more than 60% support, but seniors opposed by a 47/39 margin.

Voters are also leaning toward legalizing assisted suicide in the state, but it looks like that one will be a lot closer. Right now 45% say they support that to 36% who are opposed.

-53% of voters approve of John Kerry to 38% who disapprove of him, a slight improvement from his 50/38 spread on PPP's March Massachusetts poll. Kerry narrowly edges out Scott Brown, 47-43, when voters are asked who their favorite Senator is. That speaks to how tight the Senate race would be this fall no matter who the Democrats had on the ballot- Brown is an extremely formidable politician. Deval Patrick has a 49% approval rating with 43% of voters disapproving of him.

-Massachusetts was already more supportive of gay marriage than just about any state in the country, but that support has increased further over the last three months. 62% of voters now say they support gay marriage being legal to only 30% who think it should be illegal. That's up from a 58/31 spread in March.

Most voters in the state say that the legalization of gay marriage there has not been a big deal- 64% say it's had no impact on their lives to 20% who think it's been a positive thing and 16% who believe it's been negative. Even among voters opposed to gay marriage 61% grant that its being legal hasn't affected their lives at all.

-2014 could bring the redemption of the much derided Martha Coakley if she decided to run for Governor.

Sink the ship to drown the captain Aljazeera

Walden could upset Kitzhaber or Merkley in ‘14

Raleigh, N.C. – John Kitzhaber and Jeff Merkley will both be on the ballot in two years, and both are in tenuous position with voters right now, and would struggle to win re-election over at least one little-known but well-liked Republican in this Democratic-leaning state.

Even though he leads by margins of up to 15 points, Gov. Kitzhaber cannot do better than 46% of the vote, similar to his 45% raw approval rating.  He leads the best-known and most popular of the bunch, Congressman Greg Walden, by only one point (42-41).  That rises to ten against state GOP chairman Allen Alley (46-36), 13 versus State House Co-Speaker Bruce Hanna (46-33), and 15 against State Sen. Jason Atkinson (45-30).

Kitzhaber, Merkley could be vulnerable in 2014

Barack Obama has the advantage in Oregon for this fall, but there are early indications that the state could be pretty competitive in 2014.

John Kitzhaber has a 45/39 approval rating in the second year of his second go around as Governor, decent numbers but not exactly ones that will drive off strong opposition. Jeff Merkley's approval rating is only 37% a little more than half way through his first term in the Senate with 34% of voters disapproving of him. A higher than normal 29% of voters have no opinion about him one way or the other, suggesting a pretty low profile in the state.

Republicans don't have a long bench in Oregon. We tested four people in hypothetical contests against both- Congressman Greg Walden, State GOP chair Allen Alley, co-Speaker of the House Bruce Hanna, and State Senator Jason Atkinson. None of them have even 50% name recognition, but they all hold Kitzhaber and Merkley under 50% in hypothetical head to heads.

Walden is the strongest candidate out of that group. He would run basically even if he sought a promotion to either office, trailing Kitzhaber 42-41 but leading Merkley 42-40. 27% of voters have a favorable opinion of Walden to 16% with an unfavorable one, solid numbers among the small swath of the electorate that is familiar with him.

Sen. Brown holds steady, Kasich already in trouble

Raleigh, N.C. – Despite steady increases in name recognition for Republican challenger Josh Mandel, incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown continues to hold onto a modest lead in his first re-election bid.

Brown’s lead has dipped 1 point to 7 points (46-39) since mid-May, despite an 8-point increase in name recognition for Mandel during that same period. Name recognition for Mandel, current state treasurer, is at 63%, up from 39% in February and 55% in mid-May, when the last statewide Senate election poll was conducted.Mandel’s name is more recognized, but not more popular. Mandel’s unfavorability rating has increased 9 points since May and his favorability rating has fallen 1 point since May.

OH-Sen steady, Kasich improving

All of the negative advertising in the Ohio Senate race is having the effect of making both candidates unpopular with voters in the state. A 42% plurality now disapprove of Sherrod Brown's job performance to only 38% who approve, a net 9 point decline since early May when he was on positive ground at 40/35. But Josh Mandel has seen a similar downward spiral in his numbers- only 24% of voters see him favorably to 39% with a negative opinion, down a net 10 points from 25/30 last month.

The net effect of all this on the horse race? Not much. Brown leads Mandel 46-39, numbers little changed from a 45-37 spread a month ago. Brown's ahead 43-34 with independents, and he's winning over 15% of Republicans while Mandel gets only 12% of Democrats. There are more undecided Republicans than Democrats, so Mandel may have more room for growth than Brown. But for now Brown continues to have the upper hand.

John Kasich remains unpopular, with 40% of voters approving of him to 48% who disapprove. But those are actually the best numbers PPP has found for him since he took office. His numbers have improved a net 16 points since the Senate Bill 5 repeal in early November when he was at 33/57. He's steady with Republicans but has seen his standing get better with both Democrats and independents.

Obama leads Romney by double digits in Massachusetts

Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama is in no danger of losing Massachusetts, but his lead there has shrunk since the last time PPP polled the state in March. Obama leads Romney by 16 points, 55-39, down from a whopping 23-point lead three months ago when Romney was in the midst of getting battered by his Republican primary rivals. At that point, Obama led 58-35.

Obama still has a +10% net positive approval rating, with 53% of voters approving of his job performance and 43% disapproving.  But that number is cut almost in half from March, when it was 57-38. The difference is with men and independent voters – in March, the President enjoyed a 52-42 rating with men, and now it’s down to 49-47. And in March Obama was nearly even with independent voters, who gave him a 46-48 mark.  That has since deteriorated to 40-53.

Romney getting crushed in Massachusetts

Mitt Romney's chances of winning Massachusetts in the election this fall continue to look pretty minuscule. He trails Barack Obama 55-39 in the state where he served as Governor. That at least represents some tightening from our last poll in March when he was down 58-35, but it doesn't suggest much of a chance to make the state competitive.

Romney does not have a good image in Massachusetts. Only 39% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 56% with a negative one. When they reflect on Romney's tenure as Governor, only 40% say they approve of the work he did to 46% who disapprove. That represents a downturn since 3 months ago when voters in the state approved of his time in office by a 48/40 spread, suggesting that the Obama's campaigns attacks on his tenure are having an impact.

Massachusetts voters don't even really regard Romney as one of their own despite his time as Governor- only 25% say they consider him to be a Bay Stater, while 65% say they do not. There doesn't seem to be a state that wants to lay claim to Romney- when we polled Michigan last month, only 24% of voters said they considered him to be one of their own to 65% who said they did not.

Obama has decent approval numbers in the state, with 53% of voters giving him good marks to 43% who disapprove. The two candidates are getting about equal portions of their party bases, with Obama taking 85% of Democrats and Romney 86% of Republicans. Romney's up 47-45 with independents, but that's a sharp contrast from the 57-33 lead Scott Brown had with them in the Senate numbers we released yesterday.