Obama holds small lead in NC

PPP's newest poll of the Presidential race in North Carolina finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 48-47. That sort of razor thin margin has been the constant in PPP's 19 monthly polls of the state dating back to November of 2010. Only once has either Obama or Romney led by more than a 3 point margin, suggesting the state's headed for the same sort of photo finish it had in 2008.

This month's poll does represent an improvement for Romney. The one time the race strayed from a 3 point margin one way or the other was last month, when Obama led by 5 points. Since wrapping up the Republican nomination Romney's seen a 13 point improvement in his net favorability from -29 (29/58) to -16 (37/53). He's still not popular, but his standing with independents and GOP voters is getting a lot better as conservatives unify around him for the general.

Republicans have moved from supporting Romney by an 84-7 margin to a 90-5 one in the last month. He's also flipped independent voters, going from a 51-38 disadvantage with them to a narrow 48-44 lead.

Obama maintains strong advantages with several key groups that should ensure North Carolina remains closely contested right on through the fall. He's up 53-43 with women, reflective of the GOP's struggles with that voter group everywhere. He has a 55-35 advantage with young voters, showing little slippage from our polling in 2008 with them. And he's polling at 87% with African Americans and more importantly we continue to see high levels of enthusiasm from black voters, making it likely that they'll again comprise 23% of the electorate as they did in 2008.

There's been some discussion about North Carolina Senator Richard Burr as a potential running mate, but his impact would be negligible in the state. With him on the ticket Obama's lead would basically remain unchanged at 48-46. Burr is one of the most anonymous Senators in the country- 35% of North Carolinians have no opinion about him one way or the other with those who do have one closely divided.

We also looked at what impact Gary Johnson could have as the Libertarian candidate. He gets 6% and draws slightly more from Romney than Obama, pushing the President's lead up to 2 points at 46-44. Third party candidates tend to poll a lot better six months out from an election than they actually end up doing on election day- it seems unlikely Johnson will really get 6%.

There's been a lot of debate over the last month about whether North Carolina is really a swing state. Our polls over the last year and a half certainly suggest that it is, and I doubt either Obama or Romney will end up taking it by more than 3 points. We also put the question to the voters and 58% of them think North Carolina will be a swing state to only 20% who believe it will not. This is one thing there's a bipartisan consensus on- 62% of Democrats, 56% of Republicans, and 53% of independents believe that it will be this fall. Barring a huge shift in the national political climate over the next six months it's going to be close.

Full results here

Comments

[Steve]

There's no doubt that things have tightened up in North Carolina (i.e. shifted away from Obama) but what do you think about the Rasmussen Reports poll today that finds Romney ahead by 8 points? Statistical noise?

[Sally Rotondo]

How in the world do you get and actually have the nerve to publish them? After the Rasmussen study today of Likely Voters in NC and the petition to have the Dem Convention leave the state, your poll results, once again, have to be questioned. Statisticians should be just that. If you are something else, step up and let everyone know who you really are... a left wing political outfit. As a brand marketer, it makes me ill when pollsters do this stuff.

[Mitch Segel]

Rasmussen has Romney up by 8 points in NC , poll released today. I think you guys missed the boat.

Otherwise you have been doing some very good work recently.

[Patrick Stuart]

With all due respect, I know you're based out of North Carolina, but I feel like you do too much polling there. Every few weeks we get to see an update of North Carolina, even though we already have a good idea of where it is based off previous polls by you guys there.

Maybe you could branch out a bit and do other states instead when you would be doing North Carolina?

[Conservative Dem]

Your NC polls have been around 6 points off when compared to actual results -- please see Amendment 1. I'm thinking your selection criteria has been biased towards the metro areas, otherwise you wouldn't have been so far off.

It's pretty clear NC is moving toward leans Republican.

[Andrew]

sally it makes you ill when pollsters do this stuff? rasmussen is the one that does this stuff. please do some research befor blindly commenting on somethng you are uneducated about. per 538, rasmussen last year was off on their polls by an average of 6 points in races with a very heavy republican bias.

[Obama 2012]

I think it's hilarious that these right wingers come in here trumpeting the latest Rasmussen poll while dismissing the PPP poll when PPP has a far better track record.

Look at how badly Rasmussen did at calling Senate races in 2010: http://www.thepresidentialcandidates.us/rasmussen-reports-republican-bias/1297/

They had an average bias of nearly 5% points for the Republican candidate. There were three races that they predicted would be won by the Republican that were not (unsurprisingly they made no such errors in favor of the Democrats.)

[tbert]

So, one polling company with both a documented R house bias and margin of error polls in the other direction, and therefore this poll doesn't count? Not buying it.

[realnrh]

Rasmussen's definition of 'Likely Voters' is the 'voters' he would 'like' to see show up.