MT Gov race a toss up

The Montana Governor's race has looked like a sheer toss up every time we've polled it and things are no different in our newest look at the race. Steve Bullock and Rick Hill are tied at 39% each. On the previous two PPP polls of that match up Hill led by margins of 39-38 and 39-37

Bullock is more popular than Hill. 34% of voters have a positive opinion of him to 21% with a negative one. Hill's under water with 20% of voters rating him favorably to 28% with an unfavorable view. Usually that kind of disparity in favorability numbers would have Bullock ahead overall but of course Montana's a Republican state and Hill's taking the GOP vote 77-8, allowing him to achieve the tie.

Bullock would start out with a 41-35 advantage over the other leading Republican candidate, Ken Miller. But that match up looks unlikely. Hill continues to lead the primary field by a wide margin with 33% to 12% for Miller, 7% for Corey Stapleton, 5% for Neil Livingstone, 4% for Jim Lynch and Jim O'Hara, and 1% for Bob Fanning.  The race has tightened up a little bit- Hill led Miller by 27 points on our last previous poll- but with the clock ticking on primary day a big comeback for Miller doesn't appear terribly likely.

Not much else to report on this race- it looks like it will be very close and there's been very little variation in our polls on it.

Full results here

Comments

[Pat]

These polls are shams and simply not scientific or well researched. Not a single local poll from within MT has Miller in double digits. Furthermore, Hill is behind Lynch in several. PPP polls the insiders that make up less then ten percent of the likely primary voters. Watch, Hill will barely receive 15 percent of the primary vote.

To me this race is between Lynch and Hill. Maybe Stapleton will show. Miller doesn't have a chance nor should he. He has lost every debate he has been in, and looked a fool his entire political career.

I just wish PPP wasn't such a corrupt and baseless poll. Maybe the real truth would be brought out. That is that the GOP primary is still very much up for grabs.

[Cathy Kaech]

Bob Fanning is what Montana needs...so does Oregon, where I am from.

[Ben]

Pat's predictive skills were amazing, weren't they?!