MO-Gov tightens, but Nixon still up double digits

Jay Nixon continues to have a double digit lead against his two main Republican opponents for reelection as Governor of Missouri...but the race has tightened up some since late January. Nixon leads Dave Spence by 11 points, 45-34, and has a 14 point advantage over Bill Randles at 46-32.  Those leads are down from 20 points over Spence and 18 over Randles the last time PPP polled the race.

The main reason the race has gotten closer is Republicans starting to unify some around their candidates as the election nears. Spence has improved from 54% to 69% of the GOP vote, and Randles has gone from 58% to 63%. Also, although Nixon continues to have a double digit advantage over both of his rivals with independents, it's not as large as it used to be. He's up 14 on Spence with them compared to 26 on the previous poll, and 17 on Randles compared to 22 last time.

Spence is now looking like a pretty strong favorite for the Republican nomination, although a plurality of voters remain undecided. He's at 32% to 11% for Randles, 4% for Fred Sauer, and 1% for John Weiler. Compared to our last poll of the race Spence has gained 20 points while Randles has dropped by 4. 43% of voters remain undecided but the direction the contest is headed in is pretty clear.

His leads may not be what they were four months ago but Nixon is still in a pretty solid position. 46% of voters approve of him to 29% who disapprove. He's in a very strong place with independents at 51/29 and has much higher than normal approval from Republicans at 29/39. The reason his approval number isn't higher is that a lower than average 57% of Democrats give him good marks, but 78-80% of them still vote for him against his GOP foes whether they're enamored with him or not.

Nixon probably won't replicate his 20 point margin of victory from 2008, but he remains a strong favorite overall.

Full results here

Comments

[Alan Snipes]

In Missouri, it's Democrats for Nixon!