Maryland Polling Memo

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Maryland finds a significant increase in support for same-sex marriage among African American voters following President Obama’s historic announcement two weeks ago. The referendum to keep the state’s new law legalizing same-sex marriage now appears likely to pass by a healthy margin. Here are some key findings:

-57% of Maryland voters say they’re likely to vote for the new marriage law this fall, compared to only 37% who are opposed. That 20 point margin of passage represents a 12 point shift from an identical PPP survey in early March, which found it ahead by a closer 52/44 margin.

-The movement over the last two months can be explained almost entirely by a major shift in opinion about same-sex marriage among black voters. Previously 56% said they would vote against the new law with only 39% planning to uphold it. Those numbers have now almost completely flipped, with 55% of African Americans planning to vote for the law and only 36% now opposed.

-The big shift in attitudes toward same-sex marriage among black voters in Maryland is reflective of what’s happening nationally right now.  A new ABC/Washington Post poll finds 59% of African Americans across the country supportive of same-sex marriage.  A PPP poll in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania last weekend found a shift of 19 points in favor of same-sex marriage among black voters.

While the media has been focused on what impact President Obama’s announcement will have on his own reelection prospects, the more important fallout may be the impact his position is having on public opinion about same-sex marriage itself.

Maryland voters were already prepared to support marriage equality at the polls this fall even before President Obama’s announcement. But now it appears that passage will come by a much stronger margin.

Full results here

Comments

[Portmanteur]

I'll be interested to see what black voters think about gay marriage once Obama's re-election is out of the picture. I wonder how much of the change in opinion is truly a change of heart, or rather just folks supporting their president. Time will tell.

[guest]

VERY interesting. Thanks so much for releasing those numbers, I'm curious to see if the trend is reflected in Michigan and MIssouri, where there are significant African American populations as well. As a supporter of same-sex marriage, this is very heartening.

[Steve]

I find this very interesting regarding the black shift in gay marriage. It's sort of incredible that blacks would change their moral views on something just because Mr. Obama told them to.

The thing about Maryland is that the black pastors there are particularly opposed to same-sex marriages and could very well help shift these figures back to normal. Time will tell but a campaign against gay marriage is going to be in full swing in at least 4 states this year: Maryland, Minnesota, Washington and Maine.

[Homer]

I look forward to the day when this is no longer an issue. As an American citizen who pays taxes, volunteers in my community, and votes- I deserve the same rights as straight Americans. I also do not appreciate people voting on whether I should be allowed to have the same rights.

[gaylib]

"...back to normal."

being a bigot is normal?

[Rico]

In fairness, it's a 20 point swing, so 80% of African Americans were not swayed by the President's change of heart. Even these 20% may very well have already sympathized with marriage equality, but felt they had to support their president and hold back. That Obama is out of the closet, so to speak, on how he feels, these voters also feel safer about "evolving."

[JFE]

Two reactions:

1. I'm not going to believe any poll on this issue. You never know what prejudice somebody might feel when they are by themselves, alone in a booth, to secretly vote against a group of people which they are not a part of. It sort of like Christians trying to win a popular vote on religious freedom in Saudi Arabia.

2. To also be fair, three of the four votes this November will (hopefully) be a vote FOR same-sex marriage, rather than a vote for ONLY marriage between a man and a woman. The former vote has not occurred yet in the United States, and I believe the language is very important of how people will vote.

[Thoughtful Steve]

Let's keep our facts straight and not allow ourselves to be misled by falsehoods: President Obama explained his personal belief, and did not "tell" anyone to do anything. Perhaps blacks in Maryland responded to the President's moral courage and, even if not changing their personal moral viewpoint, have adopted a conservative philosophy -- that the government should neither regulate private lives nor religion.

I, too, question the stability of these numbers (also in PA and ABC/WP's national numbers). The rapidity and scope of the change is breath-taking. I won't make any unsupported assertions about black pastors in Maryland, but I wonder what "normal" is in regard to this rapidly-evolving question.

I second Guest's inquiry: are opinions also shifting in Missouri, Michigan, and other states with significant black populations? Or is it more powered through changes in large cosmopolitan areas like DC?

[Don L]

And they say that morality is not just skin deep...

[Gwenevere]

"It's sort of incredible that blacks would change their moral views on something just because Mr. Obama told them to."

Not when you consider that obama is their messiah. If he says it and embraces it then they should, too. The true definition of sheeple...

[Flyboy7588]

Principle be damned. Whatever it takes to keep the tribe together in support of their messiah. Pathetic.

[rob]

More proof that African Americans back Obama because of his race.

[Dana]

"I find this very interesting regarding the black shift in gay marriage. It's sort of incredible that blacks would change their moral views on something just because Mr. Obama told them to."

Haha! They're such morons. They acknowledged the fact by changing their own views. They apparently need someone to tell them how they should think. Pathetic.

[orlandocajun]

I guess this is a pretty good indication of the percentage of blacks that think for themselves vs doing what they're told. I also assume that is the reason 95% of blacks voted for Obama.

[Tina Rocha]

As an Hispanic female and regardless of our precincts endless work on behalf of Obama in 2007-2008 resulted in me and others who ran this precinct being called racist tea baggers now going on 4 years by some twisted default. I find the results in this article repugnant and oozing of blatant racism. You or your Latin lap dogs do not speak for us Barack just like W didn't for us when he was in office. This shows me one more time how you have been successful at one thing, separating American citizens from one another and I've had it.
Yeah, let's bundle another $100,000 and assume costs that come to find out are not tax deductible when you folks told us they were. We were thrown out of the Obama arrogance plane at 36,000ft., and now you want us back? I have now switched political affiliation to Independent, albeit Romney is no prize, but he will be getting my vote and a lot of others as well. Our current precinct is now a key shop but those that made it hum in 2007-2008 have never left politics and now we're humming in a different direction, non-negotiable. And come to think of it W had a better immigration plan because you Barack, regardless of the lip service on a majority of issues have no plan at all concerning immigration or we would be on the last lap of getting this done. You’re not even in the town where the stadium is. So with all due respect Mr. President, go sell crazy someplace else, we're all stocked up here.

[Silver belle]

Follow the money.....this quick change is very suspect. I would be interested in seeing the voting sample since PPP tends to be a very liberal polling group.

[mouell]

Hmmm - wonder why this 'shift' did not occur over three years ago when Dick Cheney said the same thing? Oh - I get it... it is a racist thing. The coler of the President's epidermis all of a sudden is vitally important. Who are the racists again?

[LizardLips]

The black community sold out to a cabal of victimizing, race-baiting poverty pimps long ago and deserve the suffering they whine about.

[Famous Internet Guy]

Well then it is now official:
Gay-rights advocacy has successfully hijacked the Civil Rights movement. They now all agree that blacks and gays are identical in status and cause.

Truly fascinating to watch.

[Sidney Allen Johnson]

Homosexuality has lost every referendum. Polls have been created to try to convince people that opinion is shifting when it is not. I do not believe it. Not until homosexuality starts winning referendums. Everyone knows this is wrong...most people do whats right when they get the chance.

[TXKeith]

The overwhelming passage in North Carolina was just too much for the Homo-lobby to take; it didn't agree with the narrative that a solid majority accepts same-sex "marriage" now.

So the reality revisionists had to yank Obama's chain a few times the day after the NC primary to do their bidding. I'm convinced that they have a hotline to the Oval Office, just like the unions.

[Amash]

I live in Maryland. I do not care what the poll says. Black religious leaders are STILL very much
Against same sex marriage. In my Catholic church, there has been and continues to be a very active
Organized effort to see that this bill doesn't pass. My church is only one of many doing the same thing. If any state passes same sex marriage, it will be Maryland because this state is so overwhelming democratic. However, this poll is still far from spot on.

[eve_anne_gelical]

If same sex marriage didn't pass in California, I have a hard time believing it will pass in Maryland.

[mouell]

So this will be the first of 32 states that voted this down? Unlikely. Even Obama's unicorn isn't going to pull this off.

[pbrower2a]

People are getting wise to the fact that single-sex marriage is going to do them no harm.

[B. Weber]

To the person who wrote "If same sex marriage didn't pass in California, I have a hard time believing it will pass in Maryland": I lived in Maryland for four years and not only is it an overwhelmingly democratic state but it is also (from what i've seen), a very gay friendly state. I've also spent alot of time in California for work and as a whole, i'd say that Maryland is more gay-friendly. They seem to have a much more "live and let live" vibe IMO.

[Ken]

"If same sex marriage didn't pass in California, I have a hard time believing it will pass in Maryland."
The vote in California was 4 years ago, can't compare it to what is happening today. All poll numbers have been moving towards support for equality during the last four years. That said I believe all four votes on marriage equality this November will be close but I expect the pro equality side to win at least a couple of them.

[BruinKid]

To mouell @4:31pm: Or it could be because his administration actively ran an anti-gay campaign and pursued anti-gay agendas, so Cheney's words never matched his actions. Show me a policy where Cheney actively pushed the GOP towards the side of equality for gay people.

Meanwhile, the Obama administration has repealed DADT, stopped defending DOMA in court, allowed federal benefits for same-sex partners, signing the hate crimes act, lifting the travel ban for people living with HIV, urged people to vote against anti-gay initiatives in the states, etc.

Words and actions. They go together. One without the other is just empty rhetoric, and people can see through that pretty easily.

[Adam]

As a first time visitor, I was hoping to come to this website to get facts and figures and was disappointed by what I actually received. Reading over the comments above made me cringe. It was hard to read- so much hate, anger, and suggestive segregation. I'm a supporter of marriage equality and any voter regardless of race; despite diverging views others may hold, I am so hoping that most people do not talk to each other (or about each other) in the same way that folks have written their comments above.

[Debra Mahnke]

What does it matter---people love who they love. WHO CARES! I think Obama is the better qualified person. He was handed a bag of cement when he got there. SO lets blame him not Bush. REALLY? If you think Romney is going to fix things ...Good luck on that!!

[Mark Cook]

No matter what any president, governor, legislator, or voter, or I may choose to define marriage as, the truth will prevail. God established it. He has defined marriage, once and forever. "A man shall leave his father and mother, and be united with his wife, and these two shall be one flesh." Vote away, rant away, love will conquer all, after the last ballot box, and our last breath, is gone.

I agree with what Adam posted earlier, although I'm supportive, and protective, of marriage as it has always been defined since creation. If we believe in love, we show it by our lives and our words, including our posts.

(If this is moderated, it makes me wonder how bad the stuff that's screened out is.)