Marriage Amendment still leads by 14

PPP's newest poll on the North Carolina marriage amendment shows little movement from a week ago. 55% plan to vote yes next week, while 41% are opposed.

Lack of voter understanding about how far reaching the amendment is continues to be the biggest obstacle for those hoping to defeat it. 55% of voters in the state support some form of legal recognition for gay couples in the form of either marriage or civil unions to only 41% completely opposed. But at the same time 55% of voters plan to support the amendment that would prohibit any legal recognition for same sex couples while only 41% are opposed.

The problem for opponents is that only 40% of voters actually know that the amendment bans both gay marriage and civil unions. With those voters the amendment is failing by a 60-38 margin. But with voters who think all the amendment does is ban gay marriage, 27% of the electorate, it's passing by a 72-27 margin. And with voters who admit they don't actually know what the amendment does, 26% of the electorate, it leads by a 64-28 margin. The more voters understand the full implications of the amendment the less likely they are to support it, but the clock is ticking.

When we informed poll respondents the amendment banned both gay marriage and civil unions and then asked how they would vote, only 38% continued to support it with 46% opposed.

Other notes:

-If the amendment ultimately passes it will have a lot to do with the fact that Republicans (76/21) are considerably more united in their support of it than Democrats (42/54) are in their opposition. Independents are split almost evenly, 48/46 in favor of the amendment.

-Support for the amendment is now more narrow among African Americans (53/43) than it is among white voters (56/41), suggesting that the efforts of the NAACP and other black leaders have had some impact in eroding support for it.

-Voters in the Triangle are opposed to the amendment by a 46/51 margin, while voters in eastern North Carolina support it 64/32. Voters in the Triad (55/42), metro Charlotte (54/40), and Mountains (55/39) track the statewide numbers pretty closely.

-There continues to be a massive generational gap with seniors (60/36) strongly in support of the amendment and young voters (33/59) strongly opposed.

Full results here

Comments

[Steve]

It will be very interesting to see how this amendment plays out in the actual voting. History has generally shown that undecideds break in favor of the amendments. Additionally, it's a very hard issue to poll so it will be very interesting to see how accurate the polling is in the end.

[Kent P]

"And with voters who admit they don't actually know what the amendment does, 26% of the electorate, it leads by a 64-28 margin."

How absolutely horrifying that 64% of people who don't even know the content of the amendment are still planning to amend the constitution of the state! Any time you are unsure about something, when it comes to amending the very founding document of the state, it should be left alone unless you are certain you agree with the changes!

[Margie Harley]

I'm one that does not understand the Amendment, where can I find the difference between the two

[Gerald]

The ballots cast so far are more Democrat than Republican with a very large cohort of independents. 54/46 women to men. But the average age of the voters who have returned ballots so far is 59. There is no way the pro-gay side is going to win with an average voting age of 59. This is the nature of very low turnout off-elections: the gnarled hands of the elderly steer the ship.

If the pro-gay side can get more than 40%, I'd call that a sign of real progress in the Bible belt. If they can get into the mid-40s, that would be a victory. Remember that most of the southern states passed their amendments by margins exceeding 70% just a few years ago and a few surpassed 80%. Only 1 southern state came in under 60% and that was in purple-ized Virginia on a general election day in a very democratic year. If the more solidly conservative NC comes in below 60% in a low-turnout off-election with an elderly electorate, it is no spin to call that a kind of a win.

[Erica]

Margie, I'm adding a website here for you to check out, but the main idea of this amendment is that all civil unions which are not heterosexual marriage are not valid, which would include registered domestic partnerships for heterosexual couples, as well as any future homosexual unions.
http://www.ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/North_Carolina_Same-Sex_Marriage,_Amendment_1_%28May_2012%29

[Parker]

"Pro-gay side"? There isn't a "pro-gay side." There is a pro-equal rights side, which includes every single NC citizen, be he or she gay, straight, black, white, disabled, employed, unemployed. Then there's the I-don't-care-about-anyone-else's-rights-but-mine side, which is trying to regress back into the 1960s. The writers of this amendment largely counted on the majority to NC citizens to be uneducated about the underlying repercussions of this amendment. They are hoping that everyone votes in favor of the amendment, assuming that it's solely about granting gay rights. News flash: same-sex marriage is ALREADY illegal in NC. This amendment you're voting on, has nothing to do with that. It isn't going to reverse the legality of same-sex marriage. It is however going to take away ALL the rights of any unmarried couple (Gasp! Yes this includes all the straight, unmarried couples). The amendment will take away the health care rights of children who belong to ANY unmarried couple. The amendment will take away hospital visitation rights of ANY unmarried couple. The amendment will take away domestic violence protections rights of women involved in relationships out of wedlock. The amendment can jeopardize the legal protection and pension benefits of ANY elderly widow. This isn't a "gay vs. straight" thing, but that's exactly what the government who wrote this amendment is hoping the general population of NC thinks. These law makers are banking on the fact the citizens of NC aren't smart enough to figure out the true consequences of voting this hate-filled amendment into law.

[Amanda Newnam]

https://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php?fbid=241380979302623&set=a.163549347085787.36863.115707938536595&type=1&theater

For anyone who is a little confused about what this amendment is actually about let me be clear - IT IS NOT ABOUT GAY MARRIAGE. It will harm unmarried straight couples, not just gay couples. Check out the link above for a simple breakdown of what this amendment could do if it were passed.

[Chris]

I agree with most of what was written here and I think the amendment will get between 60-65% support.

WRAL came out with a poll today showing that the amendment was ahead with those who have already voted, and even more ahead among those planning to vote. So we know it is going to pass; the question is by how much.

[jen]

Kent P, there is this nice powerpoint created by the UNC Law School:
http://www.law.unc.edu/documents/faculty/marriageamendment/powerpointshowpdfversionofmarriagemendment.pdf

You can also just google the amendment and read articles about the impacts. The language in and of itself suggests that marriage, and only marriage,e between one man and one woman will be the only legally recognized union in the state. While some of the potential consequences of the amendment are contingent upon judicial interpretation, it is without question that this amendment will render civil unions and domestic partnerships illegal in terms of state recognition.

[Chris]

The one issue I have with this poll is that it insinuates the amendment is going to pass because of "ignorance" more than anything else, which I do not believe is true. You can call the voters' view on marriage ignorant, but to say they don't understand what the amendment does is probably false.

How many voters even know what a civil union is?? I know tons of people who would say they support them in theory, but if they knew they were almost identical to marriage except in name, they would oppose them. "Civil union" does not even have a specific definition, and can mean anything depending on where they are offered.

I think PPP should add a "domestic partnership" option to its question about which rights gay couples should have. Survey USA did this in their most recent poll, and it shows that most people do NOT support either gay marriage or civil unions in NC. Rather, they would probably support a loose form of DP that provided some legal rights.

People may not fully understand the amendment, but they don't support civil unions either. I think if you were to ask voters about any ballot measure, most people wouldn't know 100% of what it does because most Americans just aren't that political or in tune with current events.

The main concern I have with the amendment is its potential effect on local DP benefits, such as in Chapel Hill. Since the amendment says that the "state" cannot recognize any domestic legal union other than marriage between a man and woman, that probably still allows municipalities to provide them. It just means that the NC as a whole cannot set up a statewide DP system. However, I could be wrong, and that is why I will likely not vote for this amendment.

If there is any doubt about amending the constitution, it probably shouldn't be done.

Thank you for the quality, consistent polling. I do, however, think that part of the premise here is incorrect. Voters in this state are way more against gay marriage and its equivalent than they are for giving gay couples any kind of legal benefits...maybe it will change one day, but not on May 8.

[Alan Ramsey]

Protect our Constitution.

Protect our Individual Liberties.

Protect the right for adults to choose make their own individual choices free from religious bigotry.

Protect the American Family.

Vote NO on the Marriage Amendment.

It is an anti-Constitutional, bigoted and hateful piece of legislation put forth by the worst representatives of human society: social conservatives.

It has no place in North Carolina values of freedom, constitutional rights to privacy, and the right of all people to "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness"...

..."regardless" of the racial, religious or ethnic bigotries of the few.

[Mad Professah]

Actually Chris I thought Amendment 1 would also only affect statewide DP or civil union but that's not what the amendment says.

It says: "Marriage between one man and one woman is the only domestic legal union that shall be valid or recognized in this State. This section does not prohibit a private party from entering into contracts with another private party; nor does this section prohibit courts from adjudicating the rights of private parties pursuant to such contracts."

One reasonable reading of that language is that NOWHERE in the state can any entity recognize any other domestic legal union other than marriage for any purpose (they are not valid or recognized). It blows every local jurisdiction out of the water.

Honestly, I don't see how the heterosexual supremacist proponents of the measure they get over the 1996 Supreme Court case of Evans v Romer which overturned Colorado's anti-gay ballot measure that tried to ban local gay rights ordinances anywhere in the state.

[Jesus Saves in NC]

I have already voted YES on Amendment One and I fully understand what I have done. Some say that you cannot legislate morality - but they want immorality ok'd by the law. I am encouraging supporters of traditional Bible-based marriage to stand up for what they believe in and take advantage of this opportunity to speak with their vote...don't be intimidated by the propoganda.

[Chad]

I hope and pray the NC will stand up for what is right! God instituted marriage. God defined marriage. Who are we to change it? Stand up for what is right people of NC. Conform not to the ways of the world. Romans 12.

[Ace]

We need to stand up for what's right and vote YES

[Politically Illiterate]

Not sure if anyone is aware of this, but DP and common law marriage isn't recognized in the state of NC as it is. So, what is the big issue about it now. All I see is that this ammendment will just add no same sex marriage into the constitution. "Like it's not already there." All this is doing is solidifying the constitutional law in this matter. I am in agreement for the amendment. Just saying.

[Renard Carter]

Why do you need a state constitutional amendment to ban something that is already illegal. This is a waste of time and tax payer money....How about an amendendment for some jobs, health care, education reform...why are the sex lives of people you don't even know important to governing a state

[smartgardener]

I'm from Washington state and I think that N.C. is trying to get ahead of same sex marriage or domestic partnership 'potential' laws in the future, with an amendment to their Constitution. Some states leadership have allowed both DP and SSM without even a vote from the public. Our Governor here in WA did just that (allow SSM) a few months ago and now the public is scrambling to challenge that law. For or against your Governor can mandate just about anything like this without your consent if there's nothing in the Constitution prohibiting it, and there is a wave of allowing SSM across the country. There are also unintended consequences for allowing SSM. Other groups will want recognition too. This isn't a civil rights case. Gays can have a wedding ceremony and go into a contract that comes very close to replicating marriage in any state. If you want to do that between you fine, but don't make ME recognize it and accept it as it's against my religious beliefs. Keep me out of it.

[smartgardener]

Paul Stam, your Congressman has a piece on this that explains more accurately how this amendment will not affect domestic violence laws and health insurance for those who are receiving it. He also brings forward the problem of forced SSM, CU laws that I mentioned earlier. People are already bringing lawsuits forward challenging current marriage laws forcing SSM in your state on a local level. This amendment would take the step proactively to stop this progression once and for all.

[Adeelah]

Do what's right NC...vote YES to amendment 1. It's not hatred, bigotry or homophobic. It's just what's natural and moral, man and a woman. It's nothing new. I don't hate gay people, I wish them no harm, and I don't talk down to them or about them. I just don't agree with their belief and that is my right, I shouldn't be called a hater, bigot, homophobe (I'm not scared of gays), or ignorant because of what I believe and stand up for.

[Eileen]

Yes, we should only have "traditional marriage" as dictated in the Bible, so we then get to have a wife and her handmaiden (Abraham), two wives who are also sisters (Jacob), several thousand wives and concubines (Samson), simply having children together while not actually being married and after being technically-speaking "born" of the other making it essentially incest (Adam and Eve), women bought and sold as property (pretty much every case of marriage in the Bible), etc. Yep, let's bring those rules back, I'm sure the men will love it! Marriage is secular in the US, you don't have to belong to a religion to get married, you can go to the courthouse, pay for a license (which is essentially a contract anyway), and boom, you're married. Until they mandate that you can only get married by a Bible-believing minister, there is no valid reason to deny marriage to any two mentally-competant adult persons.

[Billy]

Old Testament: Man shall not take a man, Woman shall not take a woman. Good enough for me. Vote Yes on Amoendment One....and straight conservative in November. Take our country back and get away from political correctness.

[Leci]

More people need to stand up for God and less for what they "feel" is right. If we, humans, did what we wanted to do this world would be more crappier than it is now. We wouldn't need our Lord and Savior. I am a Christian and I will not be bullied into being anything less because you want your sin justified. When we "all" fornicate we ALL sin. Do you see us screaming civil rights to commit adultery legally or fornicate. But murdering our children in the womb has become "woman's choice" and sin has become "civil human rights". Open your eyes and see how the devil is attacking us all. This world is not of God and I want to be with God not Satan. Make choices wisely but don't force a state or nation to accept your sin. Do it in private.

[A. Torden]

Also in the Old Testament : Leviticus 19:19, which reads: 'Do not wear clothing woven of two kinds of material.' So is Leviticus 24:16 , which reads : 'And he that blasphemeth the name of the Lord, he shall surely be put to death, and all the congregation shall certainly stone him: as well the stranger, as he that is born in the land, when he blasphemeth the name of the Lord, shall be put to death.'