Public Policy Polling

Nixon leads Spence, Randles by big but shrinking margins

Raleigh, N.C. – Jay Nixon has managed to move himself up in the rankings of the most popular governors in the country but lose ground in his re-election bid since PPP last polled Missouri in January.  But he still remains a solid favorite for another term against two leading Republicans who are still almost completely unknown to the general electorate.

46% of Show-Me State voters like their governor’s work, and 29% dislike it, versus his 44-31 approval spread four months ago.  He has inched up with his own party and with independents, and he retains unusually strong crossover support—29% of Republicans approve to 39% who disapprove.

But, at the same time, his two potential opponents have creeped up on him in the horseraces, and once a GOP nominee is chosen and is able to broaden his public profile, the race could close further.  Nixon leads frontrunner Dave Spence by 11 points (45-34), down from 20  points in the last survey (47-27).  He tops Bill Randles by 14 (46-32).

MO-Gov tightens, but Nixon still up double digits

Jay Nixon continues to have a double digit lead against his two main Republican opponents for reelection as Governor of Missouri...but the race has tightened up some since late January. Nixon leads Dave Spence by 11 points, 45-34, and has a 14 point advantage over Bill Randles at 46-32.  Those leads are down from 20 points over Spence and 18 over Randles the last time PPP polled the race.

The main reason the race has gotten closer is Republicans starting to unify some around their candidates as the election nears. Spence has improved from 54% to 69% of the GOP vote, and Randles has gone from 58% to 63%. Also, although Nixon continues to have a double digit advantage over both of his rivals with independents, it's not as large as it used to be. He's up 14 on Spence with them compared to 26 on the previous poll, and 17 on Randles compared to 22 last time.

Spence is now looking like a pretty strong favorite for the Republican nomination, although a plurality of voters remain undecided. He's at 32% to 11% for Randles, 4% for Fred Sauer, and 1% for John Weiler. Compared to our last poll of the race Spence has gained 20 points while Randles has dropped by 4. 43% of voters remain undecided but the direction the contest is headed in is pretty clear.

Tough challenge for GOP in Michigan Wall Street Journal
Romney trails Obama in Michigan Detroit Free Press
Hoekstra stirs up 'birther' issue, calls for panel to certify candidates Detroit News
Poll shows Nixon in the lead in Missouri governor's race St. Louis Post-Dispatch
Union vote key for Barrett but not a sure thing Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel
The divisive nature of tribal politics Politico
What Missouri tells us about Obama's coalition American Prospect
Latest polling offers mixed messages for incumbent Missouri Democrats Missouri News Horizon
Poll: Nixon continues double-digit lead over GOP opponents Springfield News-Leader
Poll: Stabenow's lead over Hoekstra growing WKZO 590 AM

Florida and Minnesota Question Suggestions

Florida and Minnesota won our vote on where to poll this weekend. Obviously we'll look at the Presidential and Senate races in both states, and the gay marriage vote in Minnesota. What else would you like to see us ask about on these polls?

Obama edges Romney in Missouri

Raleigh, N.C. – Despite the president becoming a little less popular and Mitt Romney a little more so since PPP last gauged public opinion in the Show-Me State four months ago, the two are just as knotted as they were then.  In a few polls last year, the state had seemed to be slipping away from the president, but is now reverting to its traditional razor’s-edge outcome.

Obama leads Romney 45-44, little change from a 45-all tie in January.  That comes despite Obama’s approval margin slipping from 45-50 to 44-52, and Romney’s personal favorability improving considerably from 30-54 to 38-50 in the same time frame.

Missouri a toss up for President

Voters in Missouri are not real happy with their choices for President. They don't like Barack Obama. But they don't, as evidenced by the Republican primary results in the state, like Mitt Romney either. That has the state looking closely contested again for this fall just as it was in 2008.

Obama has a statistically insignificant 45-44 advantage on Romney in Missouri, a result basically identical to our late January poll of the state that found the two candidates knotted at 45%. Obama has just a 44% approval rating in the state, with 52% of voters disapproving of him. But Romney's even less popular with only 38% of voters rating him favorably to 50% with a negative opinion. Independent voters strongly dislike both candidates with Obama's approval among them falling at 41/53 and Romney's favorability at 36/46.

Missouri's not likely to be one of the more consequential states in the Presidential election this year. If Obama somehow takes it it will just be the cherry on top of an electoral college landslide, while a Romney win won't get him anywhere close to 270 electoral votes. But the tightness does speak to the landscape in the state being much different than 2010 when Democrats were crushed at the polls and to Romney's weakness with Republicans there bleeding through to the general election.

Stabenow extends lead in Mich. Senate race

Raleigh, N.C. – Incumbent Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow is beginning to distance herself from her challengers as the general election nears.

Democrat Stabenow holds a 53-31 lead over potential Republican challenger Clark Durant, and a 53-37 lead over other potential Republican challenger Pete Hoekstra. Stabenow’s 22-point lead over Durant is a 5-point increase from February, when the last statewide poll was conducted. Stabenow’s lead over Hoekstra has grown 2 points since February.

Stabenow leads by double digits

Debbie Stabenow is looking like a safer and safer bet for reelection. PPP's newest poll finds her ahead of Pete Hoekstra by a 53-37 margin and with an even wider 53-31 advantage on Clark Durant.

The numbers are very similar to the 51-37 lead Stabenow had on Hoekstra in mid-February, but they're quite an improvement from last summer when Stabenow led only 50-41. The fallout from Hoekstra's controversial Super Bowl ad really seemed to take a lot of the wind out of his sails.

Stabenow's benefiting from a Democratic Party that's almost completely united behind her (89-5) as well as a 49-33 advantage with independents. One thing that really pops out in the crosstabs is that she's ahead by a more than 2:1 margin, 60-29, with women.

Stabenow's own approval ratings aren't that impressive, with 45% of voters approving of her to 41% who disapprove. But neither of her opponents have very strong numbers with Hoekstra's favorability rating coming down at 29/30 and Durant's at 9/18.

Hoekstra remains an overwhelming favorite for the Republican nomination. He's at 42% to 11% for Durant, 4% each for Gary Glenn and Randy Hekman, and 0% for Peter Konetchy. Those numbers are virtually unchanged from February when Hoekstra led by a 42-9 spread.

Is Ted Cruz the next Marco Rubio? Washington Post
Birther issue has its roots with Democrats Boston Globe
After long slog, Mitt Romney captures GOP nomination Detroit Free Press
The Missouri Senate race: a surge, a wallet, a question Esquire
Dewhurst loses edge in runoff, observers say Austin American-Statesman
Off the Beat: is Birtherism finally dying down? Honolulu Civil Beat
Senate hopeful Pete Hoekstra tries to quell 'birther' controversy MLive.com
Poll: Pete Hoekstra remains clear GOP favorite, would lose handily to Sen. Debbie Stabenow MLive.com
Ted Cruz: the Sarah Palin phenomenon The Hill
Unions vs. Scott Walker: Wisconsin recall fizzles Fiscal Times

Dewhurst should win...but why Cruz could

David Dewhurst should win the Texas Senate runoff in July. He beat Ted Cruz 45-34 last night, and our last poll before the election found that supporters of third place finisher Tom Leppert would support him over Cruz by a 77-13 margin in a hypothetical head to head that has now become a reality. Overall Dewhurst led Cruz 59-34 in a potential runoff.

I think it's going to end up being a lot closer than that though, and think Cruz even has a modest chance to win. It's all about turnout and enthusiasm. We found last week that 49% of Cruz's supporters were 'very excited' about voting for him. Only 27% of Dewhurst's expressed the same sentiment. Among that most enthusiastic group of voters Cruz led Dewhurst 42-37 for yesterday's primary, and trailed only 48-46 in a hypothetical runoff contest. It's hard to say what turnout will be in July but assuming it's lower than it was yesterday that will work to Cruz's advantage due to the passion of his supporters.