Close race in Nebraska

We did a short unplanned poll in Nebraska last night because of the sudden shift in the Republican Senate primary that some other surveys had shown. We found a very close race with Deb Fischer at 37%, Jon Bruning at 33%, and Don Stenberg at 17%. With the poll's margin of error at +/-5.9% Fischer's lead is very much within the margin of error and the race could go either way tonight.

Bruning's image has taken a huge hit in the month and a half since our last poll of the race. His favorability rating is a net +13 at 49/36. That's a 27 point decline from late March when he was at +40 (57/17.) Stenberg's seen a large- although not quite as dramatic- drop in his numbers as well from +29 (49/20) to +12 (46/34).

Fischer meanwhile has seen an incredible improvement in how voters view her. On our last poll she had only 44% name recognition and Republicans were split on her 22/22. Now she's by far and away the most popular candidate in the race with a +45 favorability rating at 62/17. Although you might look at her superior favorable numbers to Bruning and think she should win easily, it's worth noting that Mitt Romney beat Rick Santorum in a lot of states where Santorum had better favorability numbers. Voters don't necessarily always go for the candidate they like the most.

This race reminds me a lot of the 2009 Democratic race for Governor of Virginia where front runners Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran beat each other up, plunged their favorability numbers, and allowed Creigh Deeds to come out looking like a saint in comparison. Deeds just kept on picking up momentum and ended up winning by an even larger margin than expected. If that's a model and given the current trajectory of the race Fischer could win by 10. But with it as close as it is Bruning pulling out a win wouldn't be that surprising either.

If Fischer wins there will be inevitable attempts to spin it as a Tea Party triumph but her rise doesn't really appear to be about ideology. Bruning is actually winning the Tea Party vote 39-36 and among voters describing themselves as 'very conservative' Fischer is only up 38-37. The shift in this race has a lot more to do with the candidates' images than it does with issues or philosophy.

A couple other interesting things from the crosstabs: Fischer is winning men 39-31, while Bruning is winning women 37-35. Not necessarily what you would expect. There's also a significant divide along generational lines with Fischer up 41-31 among seniors, but Bruning leading 36-31 with voters under 45.

This one could go either way but whatever the final outcome it's another lesson in the weird dynamics of 3 way races- and the incredible power of negative advertising.

Full results here

Comments

[Lee Atwater]

Amazing how you can do a whole write-up on this and not mention the most significant factor and momentous event that took place in this race over the past week.

Clearly the race swung when the presumptive GOP nominee showed bold leadership and made his choice known and as expected Republicans and conservatives have followed his lead.

Oh, wait...

[Willaim Collins]

Your forgetting the endorsement of Sarah Palin for Deb Fischer last week. Sarah Palin did a Robo call over the weekend for Deb.

[JD]

The race was just called. You guys nailed it!

[Bazinga !]

Good job, PPP !

:-)