They may have dealt a huge blow to her campaign in 2008 but Iowa Democrats love Hillary Clinton and express strong support for her if she was to run again in 2016.
Clinton has an 88/6 favorability rating with Democrats in the state. 62% say they would like her to be the nominee in 2016 to 14% for Joe Biden, 4% each for Elizabeth Warren and Andrew Cuomo, 2% each for Russ Feingold and Brian Schweitzer, 1% for Martin O'Malley, and 0% for Mark Warner. Clinton's support is pretty universal. 66% of women, 57% of men, 65% of liberals, 58% of moderates, 63% of Democrats, and 61% of independents support her.
If Clinton doesn't run Biden is next on the list for Iowa Democrats. He is almost as popular as Clinton, with a 76/8 favorability score. He would be the first choice of 28% of voters in a Clinton-less field to 14% for Cuomo, 10% for Warren, 9% for Feingold, 2% for Schweitzer, 1% for Warner, and 0% for O'Malley.
Things look like they would be really wide open in Iowa if neither Clinton nor Biden runs. None of the remaining candidates have much name recognition. Cuomo is known to 43% of voters and Feingold and Warren each have 30% name rec. Warner (21%), Schweitzer (16%), and O'Malley (13%) are all pretty much completely unknown. In that field 47% of voters would be undecided with Cuomo at 17%, Feingold at 15%, Warren at 13%, Schweitzer at 4%, O'Malley at 3%, and Warner at 1%.
The basic picture on the 2016 Dem race at this very early point seems to be Clinton if she runs, Biden if she doesn't, and who knows if neither of them do.
Maybe Mitt Romney will be the Republican candidate in 2016 but if not the top tier of candidates in Iowa at this point is Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum at 16% and Chris Christie at 15%. We also tested Jeb Bush and Sarah Palin (both at 10%), Rand Paul (9%), Marco Rubio (7%), and Paul Ryan (5%).
Christie is the top choice of Tea Party voters with 18% and no one else getting more than 13%. Huckabee and Santorum basically tie for the lead among Evangelicals at 21% and 20% respectively. Santorum has the upper hand with 'very conservative' voters at 26% to 17% for Huckabee and Rand Paul is up with moderates at 26% to 18% for Huckabee.
Does 2016 Iowa polling right now matter? Not really. Is it interesting? It is to us and will be a good starting point for measuring how things move over time.
Full results here