If Newt Gingrich was going to win a big victory anywhere between now and the Republican convention Texas would be a logical candidate...but it doesn't look like that's going to happen. Mitt Romney leads the state with 45% to 35% for Newt Gingrich and 14% for Ron Paul.
Texas really shows the extent to which GOP voters have unified around Romney over the last few weeks. When we polled the state in January Republicans were evenly divided in their feelings about him with 44% rating him favorably and 44% giving him poor marks. Now his favorability is a +43 spread at 66/23. That's very much indicative of people jumping on board the train.
There's a few things in the crosstabs that really stand out. Romney's winning Tea Party voters by a 44-38 spread. But he's still losing Evangelicals to Gingrich by a 45-40 margin. That's indicative of those voters still being somewhat tepid toward Romney and while there's little chance those folks would go for Barack Obama in the fall, Romney does need to worry at least a bit about whether they're going to come out at all.
Ron Paul's headed for an embarrassing performance in his home state. Only 37% of Texas Republicans have a favorable opinion of him to 48% with a negative one and his chances of hitting 20% even with most of the rest of the field out of the picture look minimal.
Texas looks like it will remain Republican in the general election, although it might be closer than it was in 2008. Romney leads Obama by 7 points at 50-43. John McCain took the state by 13 points in 2008. Obama leads Romney 56-34 with Hispanics and 57-35 with young voters. This is not likely to be the year Texas goes Democratic, but the trends with those groups make it seem possible it will happen some day.
For what it's worth- and that's not much- Obama would trail Paul only 47-43 and Gingrich 47-45 in hypothetical head to heads.
Full results here