Texas is Romney country

If Newt Gingrich was going to win a big victory anywhere between now and the Republican convention Texas would be a logical candidate...but it doesn't look like that's going to happen. Mitt Romney leads the state with 45% to 35% for Newt Gingrich and 14% for Ron Paul.

Texas really shows the extent to which GOP voters have unified around Romney over the last few weeks. When we polled the state in January Republicans were evenly divided in their feelings about him with 44% rating him favorably and 44% giving him poor marks. Now his favorability is a +43 spread at 66/23. That's very much indicative of people jumping on board the train.

There's a few things in the crosstabs that really stand out. Romney's winning Tea Party voters by a 44-38 spread. But he's still losing Evangelicals to Gingrich by a 45-40 margin. That's indicative of those voters still being somewhat tepid toward Romney and while there's little chance those folks would go for Barack Obama in the fall, Romney does need to worry at least a bit about whether they're going to come out at all.

Ron Paul's headed for an embarrassing performance in his home state. Only 37% of Texas Republicans have a favorable opinion of him to 48% with a negative one and his chances of hitting 20% even with most of the rest of the field out of the picture look minimal.

Texas looks like it will remain Republican in the general election, although it might be closer than it was in 2008. Romney leads Obama by 7 points at 50-43. John McCain took the state by 13 points in 2008. Obama leads Romney 56-34 with Hispanics and 57-35 with young voters. This is not likely to be the year Texas goes Democratic, but the trends with those groups make it seem possible it will happen some day.

One thing that would make Obama more competitive in Texas is the- very, very off chance- that Rick Perry was on the ticket. In that case Romney's advantage over Obama would be reduced from 50-43 to 50-45. Perry's Presidential bid clearly did a lot of damage to his reputation. His approval rating has sunk into the 30s at 39%, with 53% of voters disapproving of him. With independents he's even worse off at 30/62. We'll have more on how Texans feel about Perry's political future later in the week but it's clear the hurt to his image from his failed campaign hasn't dissipated yet.

For what it's worth- and that's not much- Obama would trail Paul only 47-43 and Gingrich 47-45 in hypothetical head to heads.

Full results here

Comments

[Andrew]

I have a renewed interest in Texas as I recently spent a vacation there and traveled around a fair bit both to the metro and rural parts of the state.

While I appreciate your poll, seeing your internals that show 1/3 of whites voting for Obama is something I really don't think is going to hold. I live in a conservative southern state and I don't hear the anti-Obama things that I heard coming from the mouths of white Texans and some of their bumper stickers. He is the polar opposite of what Texas represents and many (if not most) view him as a kind of enemy of the state. It's quite probable that Texas will be a GOP landslide in November. The term 'broken glass Republicans' springs to mind. I think you need to include this in your polling in the South. There's a lot of folks down here who regard him as an outsider who wants to destroy America, not merely as a politician who they disagree with.

[Todd Dugdale]

Romney's favourables with Republicans have gone way up (the "rally" to the nominee), but Romney leads Obama by *the same margin* as he did in January. This kind of undermines the conventional wisdom that a settled primary will benefit Romney in the general election.

Seven points is a solid lead, in my mind. But there are a lot of States where Obama is leading by *at least* that much, and Republicans don't seem to think that seven points is a solid lead in *those* cases.

If seven points *is* considered "winnable" by the underdog candidate, then the GOP is in big trouble. Without the 38 EV Texas brings, there is no hope of reaching 270 for Romney.

It's interesting that there isn't a significant gender gap in the match-up.

[dingo]

LOL!! Ron Paul only getting 14% in his home state. Spin that one Paulbots.

[Sallybe]

I'm going with Newt Gingrich who is the only conservative left in the race. Romney is simply too liberal. Informal polling of Tea Party-type conservatives indicates that, if Mittens gets the nod, some plan to sit out the general election - or even vote for half-conservative Ron Paul, as he is at least more trustworthy than Romney. Mitt is simply unacceptable to conservatives, and the prospect of Obama (until he is impeached for not being a citizen) is awful, but we must draw the line at this old establishment GOP trick of manipulating the primaries so that we get stuck with these liberal candidates (in their arrogance that we'll hold our noses and vote for these crony capitalists time and time again...) How can anyone look at a speech, a debate, or the record of Gingrich and not welcome him as our own Winston Churchill here to save the day?

[redscott]

The crosstabs for the presidential general poll seem quite odd. On the one hand, the racial weightings seem considerably whiter (69 v. 63), less Hispanic (15 v. 20), and less black than the exit polls showed in 2008. On the other hand, the voting breakdowns are also all over the place, with Obama doing better with whites now (33 v. 26), less well with Hispanics (56 v. 63), and definitely less well with blacks (82 v. 98). I don't see any particular reason this should be so, other than pure randomness, and perhaps these odd discrepancies might cancel each other out because they pull in different directions. It will be interesting to see what PPP finds in subsequent polls in this state, as wellas what other outfits find.

Along with Arizona and (possibly) South Carolina, I was interested to see whether this state might go more D this cycle than a lot of us might believe. The voting shifts in Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio were significant in '08, and made me wonder whether they might continue this time. Worth watching, and I hope PPP does.

[realnrh]

For perspective, seven points is also the margin by which the most recent Pennsylvania poll had Obama up over Romney. And yet for Obama, Texas is a invest-for-future-gains state, while for Romney, Pennsylvania is a key goal in most of his paths to victory (not all, but if Pennsylvania is off the table there aren't many routes left otherwise).

[Obama 2012]

1. Romney only winning by 10% points when he's already been declared the nominee by the media doesn't seem very impressive to me.

2. If Obama can really keep a Texas loss to single digits that bodes very well for his chances at reelection.

[Jim]

Andrew, there are plenty of young liberal white Texans in Austin, Houston, Dallas, and other metro areas. I know many of them personally. The thing about Texas is it's a big state, and any kind of anecdote from either you or me isn't going to tell the full picture that a scientifically conducted poll such as PPP's will. There is also a lot of Obama hate in parts of California like the "Bible Belt" Central Valley and places like Orange County, but he's winning California by 27%.

Having lived in Texas, not just visited, I do believe it that Obama is only losing by under 10% in Texas. And he should take that as a signal to try to make a play for the state. That is a close enough margin. Texas is purple, not red! If only there were better voter education (no sample ballots are sent out in Texas to let people know when an election is), I think Texas would be a lot more competitive already.

[Sean Pizano]

Dear, Todd Dugdale
If you would look at the number of people that were polled you would have to conclude the total number polled is too low to accurately determine what Texas thinks. Too low is an understatement because Texas has one of the largest population among states. I would be more apt to accepting this poll for my small town election, but to state that Paul has no chance in his state with only 591 Texas voters and an additional 400 non Texas republican voters in one poll is not sufficient to count him down and out. I support Paul, but only because he is the only candidate that is for less government and the protection of Liberty. Paul does what no other president has done since the founder which is ask "what is the role of government." It will not matter what happens in this election. All us young people have to do is wait for our day because it is coming and we are shaping America into the best America you have ever seen.

[A White Man]

Are you blind, look around, straight from texas Romney get's booo'd, in texas the BOOO's are bigger too. HAHAHA Dummies, only fair slice of pie you'd get would be with a black man/women of any race in office. Most White men breed greed.
AND I"M A WHITE MAN, Non greedy, and I'll admit it.