Romney up big, Clinton and Christie have early 2016 leads

PPP's newest- and perhaps final- poll on the national GOP race finds Mitt Romney running away with 54% of the Republican vote to 24% for Newt Gingrich and 14% for Ron Paul. Those numbers don't suggest Gingrich will have much of an ability to compete in any of the remaining primaries. Romney's net favorability is now +42 at 65/23, a 23 point improvement from a month ago when he was at +19 (54/35).

Romney is now winning all of the groups that he had struggled with over the course of the primary season. He's up 47-35 on Gingrich with Tea Partiers, 50-30 with Evangelicals, and 48-33 with 'very conservative' voters. The most striking number in the poll may be Romney's 72/16 favorability with Tea Party voters. That's definitely indicative of a party base ready to get on the same page.

Since the primary's gotten boring and there's a glut of Obama/Romney polls out there we decided to skip ahead and take a super early look at the 2016 primaries.

The Democratic nomination at this point is Hillary Clinton's for the taking if she wants it. She has an amazing 86/10 favorability rating with Democratic voters. In a dream field Clinton gets 57% to 14 for Joe Biden, 6% for Elizabeth Warren, 5% for Andrew Cuomo, 3% for Russ Feingold, 2% for Mark Warner, and 1% each for Martin O'Malley and Brian Schweitzer.

Clinton's appeal to the various different constituencies of the Democratic Party is pretty universal. She's at 58% with 'very liberal' voters, 56% with moderates, 60% with women, 52% with men, 59% with whites, 54% with African Americans, 51% with Hispanics, 64% with seniors, and 44% with young voters.

If Clinton didn't run but Biden did he'd be the leader with 32% to 18% for Cuomo, 8% for Warren, 6% for Feingold, 2% each for O'Malley and Warner, and 1% for Schweitzer. Biden's favorability is 70/21.

And in Biden and Clintonless field Cuomo leads with 27% to 9% for Warren, 8% for Feingold, 4% each for O'Malley and Warner, and 2% for Schweitzer. Cuomo is the only candidate in that version of the field with better than 50% name recognition, boasting a 32/24 favorability rating. Feingold and Warren each have about 45% name recognition while O'Malley, Warner, and Schweitzer are all pretty much completely unknown.

We also looked at the 2016 Republican field if Romney is not the nominee again. There's a clear top tier consisting of Chris Christie at 21% and Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush at 17%. Rick Santorum's further back at 12% and Marco Rubio at 10%, Paul Ryan at 7%, Rand Paul at 4%, and Bobby Jindal at 3% round out the names we tested. It seems unlikely Santorum would be the front runner in a repeat bid.

Other notes on those numbers:

-Bush is the only Republican with a greater than 70% favorability rating, at 71/13.

-Most of the big potential GOP 2016 names have more than 50% name recognition- there are a lot more known quantities in the mix for Republicans that cycle than there are for the Democrats.

-GOP voters clearly see Rand Paul, who has a solid 42/20 favorability rating, in a different light than his dad, who's at 36/49.

-Huckabee is the most popular potential 2016 hopeful besides Bush with a 69/15 favorability rating and would start out with an edge among Evangelicals at 24% to 16% for Santorum.

-Christie has a double digit lead with voters under 45, a group the GOP's had trouble appealing to over the last few election cycles.

Full results here

Comments

[Obama 2012]

I'd love to see Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush... Clinton beats Bush again! (24 years after Bill beat George Sr. in 1992)

[Wouter]

Is this registered voters or likely voters?

[Jean Hodges]

I want to vote for Hillary, too! I've always loved her!

[CoolChange80]

PPP Polls why don't you include Sarah Palin as a choice yet you include. Three guys that will each be 10 Years removed from the last office they held with Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, and Jeb Bush. I bet all three don't run. I guarantee there is a better chance Sarah Palin runs than Huckabee, Bush, and Santorum. Palin beats Christie in really polls done on Fox News.com and Hotair. She will run. There is no logic including three guys that won't and not including somebody that probably and has said she was open to running when she told in CNN. Palin and Christie are the Front Runners for 2012.

[Austin Bodger]

I find it hilariously ironic that Obama 2012 is rooting for Clinton! Haha what happened to your beloved V.P.

[Obama 2012]

CoolChange80 - Palin didn't run this year so when in the heck would she run in 2016?

And to your point: Palin would have quit her job as Governor of Alaska quite some time ago by 2016...

[NormK]

PPP you didn't include Palin in the 2016 yet you include Huckabee. Huckabee hasn't won an election in 10 years, same with Jeb Bush. Quinnipiac did a Poll and had the Top 3 if a Brokered Convention Happened Christie, Palin, and Jeb. Palin runs in 2016. Santorum is finished. Rubio and Paul are up for re-election in 2016. I think they are unlikely to run in 2016. It is Palin, Christie, and if he survives the recall Walker. No way Palin passes up 2016. Redo the Poll without Huckabee and Santorum and include Palin and Walker.

[kj]

Palin is a has been. What other governor do you know who quit their governorship midterm, only to then get a reality show. She could of ran in 2012, but she is more concerned with the $$$ than anything else.

[tbert]

@CoolChange80 possibly because PPP isn't on crack? If there were to be a year for Palin to leverage her waning star power for a presidential election, it would be 2012. After that, unless her primary opponents are Charles Manson and a sack of moldy potatoes, the pearl will have lost its lustre, and even frothing-at-the-mouth, starburst-seeing yahoos who have helped her to continue to avoid reentering the real world will have moved on to the next shiny new thing.

[Mankind]

Elizabeth Warren v. Chris Christie

PLEASE

[Perplexed]

hillary's poll numbers reflect 'name recognition' and nothing more. When scrutiny is applied to her light resume and she has a real person to run against that 'inevitability' starts to decay. What other candidate could blow the same 'inevitability' she had in 2008 and so horribly mismanage a campaign that was amply funded against a neophyte called obama? Sorry, but no cigar.

[Monica]

God save us from another Clinton in the white house

[Obama 2012]

Perplexed - Disagree. Her resume isn't so light now that she's been Secretary of State. And yes she lost to Obama, but Obama is one of the best politicians of the modern era. She will not be going up against anyone of his caliber in 2016.

[troy]

first its amazing how your 2016 poll had no people of color on it, secondly hillary ain't running, biden probably won't either, warren isn't even in office yet and you've got her runnign for president, plus i don't see her as commander and chief of the military, next cuomo is highly afraid of cameras and i doubt liberal primary voters would vote for someone how took money from the koch brothers and is pro-fracking, next warner is to blue dog for the primaries, and schweitzer may not be able to win his own state in a general election.

feingold is like santorum, he lost his last election, o'malley is ok but he's is the former mayor of a very depressed city in baltimore, md. and he didn't make it any better.

your nominee is deval patrick, he is the governor of MA, a proven liberal, a close friend of the president, he can win iowa being that he is from chicago, he can win NH no doubt as well as south carolina in the primaries.

deval patrick is your nominee hell he is already visiting the early 2016 states see http://palmettopublicrecord.org/2012/03/23/two-possible-2016-presidential-contenders-coming-to-sc/

obama '12

[MDDEM]

More Dems need to look at Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley who crushed incumbent Republican governor Robert Ehrlich in 2006 and demolished him again in 2010. Maryland has ranked number 1 for its public school system for four years in a row and rates high in protection of the natural environment. O'Malley's support of Smart Growth and other progressive causes, his natural eloquence, and devotion to Celtic Rock could well ignite a national following.

Check out: http://www.omalleysmarch.com/

[Chris]

MDDEM, I sincerely hope you're joking. O'Malley is a joke in this state among anyone with common sense. What you call eloquence we call 'smarmy and elitist'. How many counties have banded together to fight Smart Growth now, 10? 11? Maryland may have a top-rated school system, but we're down in the lowest ranks for being business friendly, and we have some of the highest taxes in the country. AARP just told seniors don't plan to retire in Maryland - move to DE or PA, where your retirement funds aren't taxed. O'Malley's primary reason for keeping office isn't his eloquence and brains, it's a bunch of liberals in the DC bedroom counties that eat up anything he says. Only 6 counties went Democrat this election, out of 24. But the DC libs have the volume, so they get to pick the tune... even if it is Leprechaun Rock.

[Pasan]

"And yes she lost to Obama, but Obama is one of the best politicians of the modern era. She will not be going up against anyone of his caliber in 2016."

Yes, she will. Chris Christie is a powerhouse that can leach huge numbers of Democratic votes from right under Hilary. He is no Obama, but Obama is no Chris Christie either. They are both brilliant politicians in their own way.