Romney takes the lead in Pennsylvania

Mitt Romney's taken the lead in PPP's newest poll of Rick Santorum's home state of Pennsylvania. Romney has 42% to 37% for Santorum with Ron Paul at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 6%. The numbers represent a dramatic turnaround from when PPP polled the state a month ago. Romney's gained 17 points, going from 25% to 42%. Meanwhile Santorum's dropped 6 points from 43% to 37%, for an overall swing of 23 points in the last four weeks.

Pennsylvania Republicans are expressing major doubts about Santorum's viability both in the primary and the general election. Only 36% of GOP voters think Santorum has a realistic chance at the nomination to 54% who believe he does not. And when it comes to matching up against Barack Obama in the fall only 24% of Republicans think Santorum would provide their best chance for a victory while 49% think that designation belongs to Romney.

Santorum's favorability numbers haven't really changed from a month ago. He was at 64/30 and now he's at 62/31. But Romney's seen quite a bit of improvement in his image, perhaps reflecting growing acceptance that he will be the nominee. His favorability has improved a net 16 points from +6 (46/40) to +22 (57/35).

Romney's made huge in roads with the groups that have tended to fuel Santorum's success. What was a 37 point lead for Santorum with Evangelicals is now only 10 points at 44-34. What was a 32 point advantage for him with Tea Party voters is now only 6 at 41-35. And in the greatest sign that conservatives are starting to rally around Romney a little bit, what was a 51 point deficit for him with 'very conservative' voters is now only 11 points at 44-33.

Romney's leading in Pennsylvania due to strong support from seniors (46-32), men (44-35), 'somewhat conservative' voters (50-36), moderates (39-28), and suburban voters (48-31).

Obviously the race is still tight enough in Pennsylvania that Santorum could yet win...but the momentum is going completely against him and it looks like Romney will have the chance to strike a final crushing blow on April 24th.

Full results here

Comments

[juanita]

Mitt won his home state 62%-12% Santorum will not event win his home state. Time to quit, Rick before you get embarrassed.

[Judith]

Yea! Get behind the wagon and push or get out! W said it best, you are either for us or against us. United we stand or divided we fall.

[costinel pasat]

This is a good one. But Santorun is short minded he want the power, do not care about the party. He in the race thanks to Rush Limbo the man with 2 brains who only attack Mitt and the party for personal interest "Money".

[Wes Comer]

If Mitt lost a liberal state, it would be embarrassing because he's the closest thing to a liberal our party could run. If Santorum loses PA, it'll be because he's too conservative. I can live with that.

[Tennessean]

This isn't surprising to me at all. Santorum alienated PA Republicans years ago with his vicious campaign against Pat Toomey, his sick behavior in the Terri Schiavo case--actually exploiting it for political contributions--and his disastrous eruption at a GOP meeting which HE set up to mend fences with the state GOP. Robert Vickers detailed it in January of this year, when GOP leaders dished on how much they despise Rick Santorum. His history in the state of PA--it's laughable to call it his "home state," since he hasn't lived there in a decade! His real "home state" is Virginia, where he couldn't even get on the ballot! He's a pathetic loser, with a very bad temper and worse character. He set up a charity which defrauded donors and violated state law in PA, so had to be shut down. He set up a PAC to funnel money to HIMSELF and his cronies. He supported energy and infrastructure projects in PA which ended up costing taxpayers MILLIONS and NEVER GOT BUILT. Rick Santorum is the supreme slick talker, but he's nothing but a con artist. He even bought his mansion in VA in a secret deal to be paid for by a "trust" in much the same secretive and slightly shady way Obama bought his house in Chicago's Hyde Park in a slimy deal with Tony Rezko--who's now in prison for his slimy deals! Republicans in Pennsylvania will never forgive Rick Santorum for his support for Arlen Specter--WHICH GAVE US OBAMACARE!

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2012/01/pennsylvania_gop_leaders_santo.html

[royal higgins]

Hooray for Mitt Romney.
Santorum is good, Mitt is better!

[Bazinga !]

When will you be able to poll Indiana ?

[Randy Scott]

Santorum came from no where and is headed back there none to soon! His extreme views on religion,women,minorities and a singular 1960s view of the world(catch, up you missed the 21st century)is not only backward thinking,but apalingly arrogant. What is truly amazing is that he was taken seriously as a candidate for the Republican nomination!

[Matt]

If Santorum doesn't drop out, he will lose. Romney is going to try to seal the deal and will spend $10-20 million. Just look at what happened in Florida. AND there are 3 weeks until then. Santorum will lose and will be embarrassed like the his landslide loss in 2006.

[Guy K]

How could anyone vote for a person seeking the presidency who,unless I am wrong, has not let go of an issue that has been determined by a federal court to be unconstitutional?

[Obama 2012]

If Santorum loses Pennsylvania then I don't see any reason for him to continue.

[bubbaj]

Mitt will win the white house!! Go Mitt!!!

[joeysawit]

Mitt Romney will win!!he is the best candidate for President and to lead the country for the best future of our children.

[Daniel Tourtillott]

Does anyone actually know if Romney or Santorum have any plans or are they going to come up with a plan after they get elected. Not a single comment about their policies on here how sad, you vote for these guys because the GOP limits you to what they feel is acceptable to the establishment, me I vote with my heart and mind. I reject your two party system, 300 million people and we come up with obama and Romney, both backed by the same banks, you know hedging their bet a little.

My candidate receives no money from special interests, does not waiver or pander. I am of course a Proud Ron Paul supporter. And get this we won't vote for any other nominee, we're still voting for Paul. And when it's all said and dust settles Ron Paul's Army will still be there growing steadily, getting louder.

Daniel
Patriot, libertarian
Ron Paul 2012

[Monster Beats Headphones]

My candidate receives no money from special interests, does not waiver or pander. I am of course a Proud Ron Paul supporter. And get this we won't vote for any other nominee, we're still voting for Paul. And when it's all said and dust settles Ron Paul's Army will still be there growing steadily, getting louder.

Daniel
Patriot, libertarian
http://monsterbeatsstudio.us