Obama leads Romney by 13 in Colorado

Barack Obama's opened up a 13 point lead on Mitt Romney in Colorado at 53-40. He's gained 11 points in the state since December when he led just 47-45.

The formula for Obama's gains is the same in Colorado as it is everywhere. He's getting more popular and Romney's getting less popular. In December only 45% of voters approved of the job Obama was doing to 50% who disapproved. Now he's on positive ground with 50% giving him good marks to 47% who think he's doing a poor job. The main thing that's changed is Democrats really rallying around him. In December he was at 76/18 with them, but now it's 89/8. The party is getting a lot more unified as the election comes closer.

Romney's headed in the other direction. His net favorability has gone from -18 (35/53) to an even worse -29 (31/60). Romney had a healthy amount of appeal to Democrats earlier with 20% viewing him favorably but that's now down to 11%. And he's extremely unpopular with independents at 25/65.

In the head to head between them Obama leads Romney by 26 points with independents at 57-31. And Romney's now getting just 7% of the Democratic vote, down from 14% on our December poll. This is the trend we're seeing in most states- the primary campaign has caused much of Romney's crossover support to evaporate and it's also making him lose ground with independents.

Romney's problem with women shows itself in a major way in Colorado. He's down by 24 points with them at 58-34. With men the race is actually tied. Obama's also up by an astounding 72-17 margin with voters under 30 in the state, a pretty good sign of where Colorado is headed politically.

Ron Paul is actually the strongest of the GOP contenders in the state, trailing Obama by only 5 at 47-42. He trails by only 11 with independents where the other candidates are down by 26-32, and he takes 10% of the Democratic vote where none of the others exceed 7%. Rick Santorum trails by 16 at 54-38 and Newt Gingrich with an amazingly bad 21/70 favorability rating does the worst with an 18 point deficit at 55-37.

The race in Colorado may get closer once the focus shifts to the general but for now it looks a lot more likely that it will imitate Obama's wide 2008 margin of victory there than that it will be a closely contested battleground.

Full results here

Comments

[Bazinga!]

Hi

Did you poll the favorability of Lindsey Vonn in Colorado as I've suggested?

[Todd Dugdale]

If every Republican in the State "rallied" to Romney after the RNC, it would only add 6.3% to Romney's side of the margin (.35 x .18).

If every undecided Independent went for Romney, it would add 3.6% to the general election margin in Romney's favour (.30 x .12).

This, of course, assumes that Romney's "favourables" don't go down further once the Republican "brand" is tied to him post-Convention.

There aren't enough undecided voters for Romney to get above water on his favourables nor his general election margin.

[Dustin]

Why do most pollsters use Registered Voters rather than the more accurate group of Likely Voters? Everyone knows that Democrats register more voters, but Republicans get better turnout rates. Seems like taking the easy route and not screening more thoroughly introduces inaccuracies into your polls. Look at the national polls: it's as if pollsters using likely voters are seeing a much different (and closer) race than those using registered voters.

[Bob]

When can we see a Georgia poll? I'd like to see if Obama has a chance of winning it in 2012. He lost by only 5% in 2008.

[Obama 2012]

Agreed with Bob - Georgia seems like a red 2008 state that Obama has a shot to pick up (if he wins by a healthy margin...)

[Dino Velvet]

"Did you poll the favorability of Lindsey Vonn in Colorado as I've suggested?"
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I'd sure like to poll Lindsey Vonn

[brian]

Romney just finished the primary and people that regard themselves independant is at record highs. Lets wait and see how things are going to be going forward. It is pretty simple choice more government with Obama less (hopefully with Romney.

Lets look at recent events.
1) The war on woman (failed)
2) Romneys dog ( are u serious)
3) The Ryan Plan (its a lot to ask the government to balance the budget in 30yrs and by the way congress hasnt passed a budget since Obama Started)
4) Immigration Arizona law upheld. Yet another flop for ths constitional professor.
5) Educational Loans (please refer to NO WE CANT) Jon Stossel. The government like fanie and freddie has greated a bubble in education. 600 Universities host climbing walls in their rec centers. How about selling those and reduce tuition.