Obama has small lead; Christie would help Romney

PPP's newest national poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49-46. A similar poll in February found Obama leading 49-42. Obama's not losing support but Romney is consolidating it as it becomes more and more clear that he will be the Republican nominee for President.

Romney's seen a massive improvement in his personal favorability numbers over the last 2 months as GOP voters have unified around him. He's gone from a -28 spread (29/57) up to a -12 one (39/51). Most of the improvement has come with Republicans, going from 43/41 to 67/22. His numbers with Democrats are steady and he's seen a little bit of improvement with independents from 32/55 to 36/50, although he remains unpopular.

In addition to looking at the head to head between Obama and Romney we also tested to see how some different potential GOP running mates might affect the ticket. Four of the people we tested-Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum- slightly improve Romney's numbers against Obama. And four of the people we tested- Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Marco Rubio, and Paul Ryan- slightly hurt Romney's numbers against Obama. In only one case- Palin's- does the introduction of a running mate make more than a 3 point difference in how Obama and Romney match up.

The running mate who helps Romney the most- allowing him to achieve a 47/47 tie with Obama- is Christie. In contrast to Romney, Christie actually has positive national favorability numbers at 36/34. Christie's inclusion doesn't have a big impact with Democrats or independents but it helps Romney shore up the party base, going from an 82-10 lead with Republicans to an 86/9 one.

Jeb Bush gets Romney to within a point of Obama at 48-47 and Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum both pull him to within two at 48-46. The main positive effect any of those folks has for Romney is helping to shore up the GOP vote. Bush gets him up to 85%, Huckabee to 84%, and Santorum to 83%.

Then there are the potential VP's who hurt Romney- if only slightly. Ron Paul as running mate expands Obama's lead to 4 points at 48-44, Paul Ryan ups it to 5 at 48-43, Rubio to 6 at 49-43, and Palin to 7 at 50-43.

Some other notes on the poll:

-Rubio's favorability with Hispanics nationally is 35/42. Without Rubio on the ticket Obama leads Romney 68-30 with them, with Rubio on the ticket it's cut only to 67-32.

-Michelle Obama (55/33 favorability) and Ann Romney (44/27) favorability are both a lot more popular than their husbands. Voters think Mrs. Obama would be a better President than Mrs. Romney by a 47/36 margin.

-Joe Biden's numbers are a little bit weaker than Obama's with 42% of voters seeing him favorably to 48% with a negative opinion.

-Ron Paul actually does just as well in a head to head with Obama was Romney, trailing by 3 points at 47-44. Newt Gingrich would be down by 9 at 51-42.

Full results here

Comments

[Matt D]

So essentially, all Christie would do is consolidate the GOP vote, which was likely to happen anyway?

[OSUPhantom]

No Condi?

[Bob in Boston]

Interesting how you wait until the very last sentence to point out that Ron Paul does just as good as Romney. At least Romney ties Ron Paul in your poll - in Rasmussen Dr Paul beats both Romney and Obama. Based on the rate Ron Paul is winning delegates, that should have been your first sentence! Romney has been getting killed in recent delegate contests but the media keeps insisting he's winning and ignoring Dr Paul who's pulling crowds 5-7x as big as Romney to his rallys.

[George]

Pretty bizarre. All polling firms now show that Obama does better in swing states than nationally. True of polling from PPP, Quinnipac, Gallup and Rasmussen among others! This means he is either winning blue states such as MA and IL by smaller margins, say 15% instead of 25% or Romney is winning states such as Texas and Utah by over 70%!

[Kabster]

Ron Paul is the only intelligent choice.
With Romney, you get 4 more years of Obama.
Stop doing the exact same thing over and over expecting different results.
The R3volution will not be on the MSM.

[Fletch]

It seems counterintuitive that Ron Paul hurts Romney as VP choice. Romney is Romney, and inevitably the same people are going to vote for him. You add Ron Paul to the mix, and you would assume a certain segment would at least partially gravitate to the ticket (young, independents, anti-war, libertarians). Take for instance myself - I might have voted for Romney (perish the thought!) if he chose Ron Paul. So what am I missing?

[shane]

"Registered voters".

I wonder how much of a difference that makes, and to whose advantage, compared to people (likely voters) that actually vote?

[Ryon Wallace]

"...as GOP voters have unified around him."
This is false. Why can't Romney draw large crowds? Because he is completely uninspiring, untrustworthy, and virtually analogous to Obama. *McCain* produced more enthusiasm. And that is what tips the scales when the average American weighs the options of either 1.) Watching Dancing with the Stars on their couch or 2.) Heading to the voting booth. Enthusiasm.

If the GOP is serious about beating Obama, Ron Paul is the only choice.

[David]

Christie is a day or a year way from a massive heart attack.

[repubnut]

PPP Polls like NBC-MSNBC should be printed on toilet tissue so we could make good use of them !!!

[Joel Davis]

Ron Paul -- I love this guy! He's changed the way I view politics. For the first time ever I have a voice in the government. No matter what happens in the short term, I'll be taking Ron Paul's ideas with me for the rest of my life.

[Obama 2012]

The Ron Paul people are still beating that dead horse, eh? Amazing. It's over people! If Ron Paul wants to remain in the conversation he has to run as an independent, otherwise he's done.

~~~

It's interesting that Obama seems to be doing better in swing state polling now than national polling. This is true even with right wing pollsters (for example see the Fox News poll with Obama up by 4 in Ohio - same as his 2008 margin.)

Obviously if Obama wins Florida & Ohio this thing is over, there's no way the GOP can win without those states... yet the national numbers are too close for comfort.

It's an interesting dynamic.