Obama doing well in Florida

Barack Obama starts the general election with a 5 point advantage over Mitt Romney in Florida, 50-45. This is the biggest lead Obama's had in Florida over the course of five polls PPP's done in the state since the beginning of 2011.

The main reason for Obama's enhanced standing in the state is that his own popularity is on the rise. 51% of voters now approve of him to 45% who disapprove. His numbers with Republicans are unchanged from the last time we polled the state but he's now getting strong marks from independents (57/37, up from 43/50) and Democrats are unifying around him as the general election approaches (he's at 86/11, up from 73/20).

In the head to head with Romney Obama wins independents 53-34, while each candidate gets a pretty even amount of support from his own party with Obama at 84% of the Democratic vote and Romney at 83% of the GOP vote. Obama is up 69-21 with young voters and 52-37 with Hispanics.

We also looked at how four prominent Florida Republicans- Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Allen West, and Rick Scott- might affect the race as Vice Presidential candidates. Only Bush has a positive impact for Romney, bringing the race within three points at 49-46. Bush continues to be a popular figure in the state with 52% of voters viewing him favorably to 40% with a negative opinion.

Rubio's drawn the most attention as a potential Veep pick, but with him on the ticket Romney actually drops from 45% to 43% with Obama staying at 50%. There's not much evidence Rubio would be able to draw Hispanic voters to Romney. In the straight Obama/Romney match Obama leads 52-37 with Hispanics and in the Obama/Biden v. Romney/Rubio match Obama still leads 52-37 with Hispanics. Rubio is not an overwhelmingly popular figure in Florida with 43% of voters approving of him to 41% who disapprove.

West and Scott aren't serious VP possibilities anyway, but they'd both have a negative impact on Romney in Florida. With West on the ticket Obama's lead expands to 10 points at 50-40 and with Scott in the mix it goes even larger to 11 points at 51-40.

Scott continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with 34% of voters approving of him to 54% who disapprove, but those numbers are at least up a little bit from our last poll when he was at 26/58.

I don't know that anyone really thinks West could help Romney with the black vote, but when he goes on the ticket Romney's share of it drops from 10% to 7%. West has a 24/32 statewide favorability rating.

November's a long way off but for now Obama's looking quite good in Florida and it's hard to imagine Romney winning in the fall without it.

Full results here

Comments

[Chris Ar]

Obama will lose Florida by 2-3 percentage points. He's not doing well here. Nice try.

[vietvet]

More BS from the MSM until Nov.............

[Rory Oldham]

A couple of simple and important questions. Does this poll represent the actual registered voters percentages of R/I/D in the state of Florida? Are your samples weighted on current population breakdowns?

[Davidsfr]

Very welcome news in the midst of these national polls showing Romney bouncing--if Obama holds Florida it's game, set, match!

[A Facebook User]

Marco Rubio is NOT eligible to be on the ticket for POTUS. He is NOT a NATURAL BORN CITIZEN as required by the Constitution. One of the requirements of NBC is BOTH PARENTS MUST BE U.S. CITIZENS AT BIRTH. That requirement has been affirmed unanimously by the Supreme Court in Minor v. Happersett.

Of course that would prove that Little Barry the Usurper is likewise Constitutionally INELIGIBLE to be POTUS. But Rubio and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal are Republicans, so they don't get the free pass that secular progressive Democrats / Marxist communists like Obama get.

[Taternuggets]

Not with this Floridian he isn't.

[George]

I would hope that polling firms will follow PPP example and poll only swing states. I am pretty convinced that the Gallup and Rasmussen trackers are not accurate at all and neither is the CNN/ORC national polling. Polls for each of the swing states will give us an excellent picture of where the election stands right now.

[Obama 2012]

I'm curious what you guys have to say about Gallup's tracking poll? (which today has Romney up by 5 nationally... while CNN had Obama up by 9!) ... obviously I'm not pleased with the Gallup numbers... I would like to hear an argument for why they are wrong... fmaklsfjaldk

[Todd Dugdale]

The decrease in percentages of undecided voters, along with the increases in Obama's margins, are illuminating.

In December, 10% of white RV were undecided. Now it's 4%, and Romney hasn't seen any benefit at all from this drop. Obama's gained six points with whites, while Romney's stayed the same. The GOP's barely winning white voters at 53%.

In December, 7% of 65+ aged RV were undecided. Now it's 4%, and Romney's dropped four while Obama gained six. Romney's only winning 50% of seniors.

In December, 12% of women RV were undecided. Now it's 6%, and Obama has gained seven while Romney stayed the same. Obama is winning female voters by 16 points, while Romney is only leading with men by 10. That ten-point lead with men is where Romney was back in December.

Bear in mind this poll was in the field during "Rosengate", and after Santorum dropped out. We aren't seeing any "rallying" to Romney here, nor any drop among female voters.

For a candidate relying on undecided voters to break for him, Romney seems to be failing in that regard.

Undecided Republicans are only 1.2% of the RV electorate here. If every single one rallies to Romney's, it would just be a blip in the Big Picture.

[Diana Walter]

I don't remember getting a call for this poll. I just cannot imagine Romney *NOT* winning Florida.

[Legal Insurrection]

Is this a poll of likely voters or registered voters?

[Austin Bodger]

Obama 2012 the reason there is a big disparity between Gallup and CNN, is that Gallup is a reliable and respectable source, while CNN is obviously biased, and has contorted the demographics

[Obama 2012]

Diana Walter - You may be surprised to find out: You are not the only person in Florida.

A Facebook User - Random caps = crazy person. Time after time I see this with right wingers. Very interesting.

[George]

"Obama will lose Florida by 2-3 percentage points. He's not doing well here. Nice try."

Oh really?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html#polls

[Anybody]

It is weighted for Democrats. They are slanted anywhere from 7 to 10 points.
Nice try, PPP Democrat Pollster, but NOt buying it when you slant this much for Obama. And PPP is fully aware that democrat identity voter is down and republican is way up, adding even more bias to the PPP aka Obama poll.

[Marc]

How many times does it have to be explained to people that being a natural born citizen only requires that that person is born here. Not their parents, not their great-uncles, just them. That's it. I thought the idiot birther movement was finally over!

[Inkan1969]

Anybody, can you actually back up your slanting accusations?

[Marczen Y'cousa]

You're wrong Anybody. The states that register voters by party have seen a drop in both party's numbers. More people are becoming independents.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2011-12-22/voters-political-parties/52171688/1