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April 04, 2012

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Michael Balkin

What is breakdown of GOP vs Dem vs Ind respondents?

grantcart

Dems 43
Reps 39
Ind 18

Tom Johnson

Here were the crosstabs from the exit poll 2008:
Obama McCain
White 69% 45% 53%
Hispanic 15% 76% 22%
Black 10% 94% 5%
Other 6% N/A N/A

The crosstabs from this PPP poll show 71% white, 8% black, 15% hispanic and 6% other, which seems very unlikely given the fact that the hispanic, asian, and black communities are growing way way way faster than whites in Nevada.

I expect the crosstabs to look like this on election day:

Obama Romney
White 66% 42% 55%
Hispanic 17% 69% 29%
Black 10% 92% 6%
Asian 4% 62% 36%
Other 3% 64% 33%

This would come out to: Obama 53.05% Romney 44.26%

There's no way Romney can win Nevada. Obama has it locked up. You can write it down.

Todd Dugdale

With only 38% viewing Romney favourably, it's difficult to see him picking up a lot of support after the RNC. By pulling 43% in the match-up, Romney now has 5% of the electorate who say they will vote for him, while admitting that they don't like him. All that Romney can do is try to convince more people *that don't like him* to side with him. That's an unenviable task.

Obama, on the other hand, has 50% job approval and draws 51% in the match-up. That leaves only an insignificant 1% who will vote for him, while not liking him.

Most of the "undecideds" are conservatives. What, exactly, is supposed to happen at the RNC to persuade these conservatives to like Romney more? Romney isn't some unknown, especially among conservatives. Even if these conservatives shift to Romney, they will be reluctant supporters. It's also unlikely that Romney will be saying much after the RNC that will appeal to conservatives more than moderates.

All of this assumes, of course, that Romney's "unfavourables" won't continue to grow.

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