Obama doing better in Nevada

Nevada, more than any other state, symbolizes how much the Presidential race has changed over the last six months.

In October Barack Obama was unpopular there, with a 44/53 approval rating. That was the story in our Nevada polling through most of last year. In July Obama was at 47/50 and in April he was at 45/52.

Mitt Romney, on the other hand, polled much better with voters in Nevada than he did in most of the rest of the country. His favorability on our last poll there was narrowly positive at 45/44, and he managed to tie Obama at 46% in a state where the President won by 12 points in 2008. PPP's other polls in the state in 2011 showed a similarly close Obama/Romney race- a 1 point lead for Obama in July, a 3 point lead for Romney in April, and a 1 point lead for Obama in January.

That's not the case anymore. Over the last 5 months Obama's approval numbers have recovered, Romney's favorability numbers have taken a strong turn in the wrong direction, and Obama's opened up an 8 point lead in the state at 51-43.

Obama's 44/53 approval rating in the state has now flipped to positive territory at 50/46. Most notably what was a 42/53 breakdown with independents is now 55/40. He's seen smaller improvements with Democrats (from a 78% approval rating to 82%) and with Republicans (from a 6% approval to 12%).

Romney's net favorability meanwhile has dropped by 14 points to -13 with 38% of voters seeing him positively to 51% with a negative opinion. Part of his strength in Nevada had been an unusual number of Democrats seeing him favorably, but that crossover appeal has dropped from 27% to 18%. With independents his favorability is 36/54.

Adding Brian Sandoval to his ticket wouldn't do a lot to help Romney win Nevada.

Sandoval has good numbers for a Republican Governor in a Democratic leaning state, with 46% of voters approving of him to 31% who disapprove, highlighted by a much higher than normal 30% approval with Democrats. But a Romney/Sandoval ticket only reduces Obama's lead in the state to 50-44.

With Hispanics choosing Sandoval as his Vice President still leaves Romney down 64-33 to Obama, although that's a modest improvement from 69-30 in the straight Obama/Romney question. Sandoval could be a good running mate for Romney for other reasons, but flipping Nevada to the GOP column doesn't look to be one of them.

The Republican who comes closest to Obama in Nevada is actually Ron Paul, who trails 49-42. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich trail by 54-40 and 54-39 respectively.

Obama's not out of the woods in Nevada. His numbers there are still weaker than in 2008, and Romney could certainly see some recovery once he's the GOP nominee. But things are looking a lot better for the President there than they did over the course of 2011.

Full results here

Comments

[Michael Balkin]

What is breakdown of GOP vs Dem vs Ind respondents?

[grantcart]

Dems 43
Reps 39
Ind 18

[Tom Johnson]

Here were the crosstabs from the exit poll 2008:
Obama McCain
White 69% 45% 53%
Hispanic 15% 76% 22%
Black 10% 94% 5%
Other 6% N/A N/A

The crosstabs from this PPP poll show 71% white, 8% black, 15% hispanic and 6% other, which seems very unlikely given the fact that the hispanic, asian, and black communities are growing way way way faster than whites in Nevada.

I expect the crosstabs to look like this on election day:

Obama Romney
White 66% 42% 55%
Hispanic 17% 69% 29%
Black 10% 92% 6%
Asian 4% 62% 36%
Other 3% 64% 33%

This would come out to: Obama 53.05% Romney 44.26%

There's no way Romney can win Nevada. Obama has it locked up. You can write it down.

[Todd Dugdale]

With only 38% viewing Romney favourably, it's difficult to see him picking up a lot of support after the RNC. By pulling 43% in the match-up, Romney now has 5% of the electorate who say they will vote for him, while admitting that they don't like him. All that Romney can do is try to convince more people *that don't like him* to side with him. That's an unenviable task.

Obama, on the other hand, has 50% job approval and draws 51% in the match-up. That leaves only an insignificant 1% who will vote for him, while not liking him.

Most of the "undecideds" are conservatives. What, exactly, is supposed to happen at the RNC to persuade these conservatives to like Romney more? Romney isn't some unknown, especially among conservatives. Even if these conservatives shift to Romney, they will be reluctant supporters. It's also unlikely that Romney will be saying much after the RNC that will appeal to conservatives more than moderates.

All of this assumes, of course, that Romney's "unfavourables" won't continue to grow.