Obama at a high in North Carolina

Mitt Romney may have effectively wrapped up the GOP nomination with Rick Santorum's withdrawal yesterday, but PPP's newest North Carolina poll really shows how much Romney was hurt by the process with Barack Obama as the ultimate beneficiary.

Obama now leads Romney by 5 points in North Carolina, 49-44. That's the largest lead we've found for him in monthly polling dating back to November of 2010. Obama has a 51-38 advantage with independents and is particularly strong with women (54-39), African Americans (90-7), voters under 30 (61-33), and folks in the Triangle (60-33).

The Republican nomination process has taken a huge toll on Romney's image in North Carolina. In February of 2011 voters in the state were almost evenly divided on him with 37% rating him favorably to 39% who had a negative opinion of him. Now that spread is a dreadful 29/58. His numbers with GOP voters are about where they've been, but he's seen a considerable drop in his appeal to Democrats and independents.

He was actually popular with independents at 45/36 last winter, now he is incredibly unpopular at 25/62. And what was once a decent amount of crossover appeal to Democrats with 23% seeing him favorably to 52% with a negative opinion is now a 12/77 spread. Romney may see some improvement in his numbers as conservative leaning voters start to unify around him, but for now they're pretty dreadful.

Obama's rise isn't completely because of Romney's unpopularity though. He's becoming stronger in his own right. 49% of North Carolinians say they approve of the job he's doing to 48% who disapprove. This is the first time since last June that he's been on positive ground in the state. Obama's numbers with Democrats and Republicans are about where they always are, but with independents he has majority approval at 52/42.

Ron Paul matches Romney's general election viability in North Carolina, also trailing Obama by a 5 point margin at 48-43. Newt Gingrich would be far weaker, trailing Obama by 10 points at 51-41. His favorability spread is 26/64. It's irrelevant now but we found Rick Santorum trailing Obama 50-44 on this poll.

It's unlikely Obama will really end up taking North Carolina by 5 points in the fall. Things will probably tighten up as Republicans unify around Romney. But it's a great position for Obama to be in a state that he really doesn't need in order to be reelected this fall.

Full results here

Comments

[Obama 2012]

I'm assuming that Romney's reputation will recover somewhat now that he's going to move to the middle for the general election... I'm hoping the Obama campaign does everything they can to slow that process down (keep reminding people that Romney/Etch A Sketch cannot be trusted, ever.)

[Jessica]

"It's unlikely Obama will really end up taking North Carolina by 5 points in the fall."
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I disagree. Obama's GOTV apparatus will have a huge advantage, that alone can add 3 to 5 points to his tally.

[Xerxes]

Wow, a D+11 sample for a purple state! So, that really means that Romney is ahead of Obama in NC based on these results

[Christopher Estes]

According to the NC State Board of Elections, Democrats make up 43.5% and Republicans 31.4% of North Carolina's registered voters. If the sample is off, that's because not enough Democrats were polled.

[Dustin Ingalls]

Xerxes: You obviously know nothing about NC. The state has about a D+13 registration advantage. '08 was also D+11.

[Joe]

"Wow, a D+11 sample for a purple state!"

This is in line with who came out in 2008, per CNN's exit poll (42 D, 31 R, 27 I). NC has a Democratic registration edge.

You could make an argument regarding Dem/Rep enthusiasm vs. 2008 I spose, but the party ID numbers are generally logical.

[Ny]

Xerxes is obviously not too bright.

[Obama 2012]

People like Xerxes really tickle me... the funny thing is they really think they are making a good point... and then even when things are explained to them... well; they aren't the type that learn from their mistakes.

[Austin Bodger]

You guys need to start polling likely voters. there is no way in hell Romney is losing by five points. in reality he is probably winng by a couple.

[Donna]

NEWT WILL BE THE BEST PRESIDENT. ROMNEY IS A DISHONEST MAN