Momentum moving against NC amendment

Momentum is turning against North Carolina's proposed marriage amendment.  PPP's newest poll finds only 54% of voters in the state planning to support it, while 40% are opposed. This is the lowest level of support PPP has found in monthly polling of the amendment since last October. When PPP first polled on it six months ago 61% supported it with only 34% opposed, so its current 14 point lead has been cut almost in half from the 27 point advantage it started out with.

There is some reason to think a huge upset in two weeks is within the realm of possibility. 53% of voters in the state support either gay marriage or civil unions, with only 44% opposed to any recognition for same sex couples. The proposed amendment would ban both gay marriage and civil unions, but voters continue to be confused about that. Just 36% correctly identify that it would ban both while 26% think it bans only gay marriage, 10% think it actually legalizes gay marriage, and 27% admit that they don't know what it does.

When voters are informed that the proposed amendment would preclude both marriage and civil unions for gay couples only 38% continue to support it with 46% in opposition. Voters obviously will be more tuned into the amendment debate over the final two weeks of the campaign than they have been to date, particularly as the against side's tv ads hit the air, and it seems quite possible that as voters become more and more informed about the amendment they will continue to move more and more against it.

The main movement over the last month has been with Democratic voters. Previously they were almost evenly divided on the amendment but now they're moving against it with only 38% still in support and 56% opposed. A big part of that is a shift among black voters. They still support it by a 51/39 margin, but that's well down from 61/30 on our a poll a month ago.

The other thing that really stands out in these numbers is the views of young people. Only 31% of voters under 30 now say they support the amendment, with 62% in opposition. As Thom Tillis has said, regardless of what happens on this vote in two weeks, the tide is strongly turning. Seniors meanwhile are nearly the mirror image of young people on the issue, supporting the amendment 63/31.

The amendment is still favored for passage, but it's looking like less and less of a sure thing.

Full results here

Comments

[Steve]

I think it is safe to say from your analysis this week and last that you guys oppose the amendment and want it to fail. I would hope and assume that this does not show up in your numbers.

I do have one main question about the poll though, and that has to do with unaffiliated voters and democrats seemingly switching places. Pretty much every poll has shown democrats split until now. Independents now support the amendment after opposing it by a healthy margin last month. What do you think explains this shift? Clearly, if it is getting closer, it isn't with all groups. In fact, only democrats have moved against it.

Could it be possible that some type of Bradley Effect is taking place among democrats who do not want to voice differing opinions than their leadership, but still intend to vote for the amendment anyway? I have a hard time believing that black support is only 51%. I expect it to reach 70% on election day, as it has in virtually every other state.

Polls leading up to Florida's vote on a similar amendment were almost identical to this one, and it still passed 62-38. I would anticipate a similar result here in NC. The general rule of thumb on votes like this is that all undecideds will go to the FOR side, so that sounds like a reasonable margin to expect.

I just don't see any way this could fail to pass. But if you guys are releasing more numbers on it before May 8, I guess we will see if this poll is a true trend or just an outlier.

[Ruth Gibson]

But some of us seniors are strongly against it. We believed in love when we were young. Hey, we were young when we rallied and marched for civil rights, to stop a war, to get equal rights for women. Our knees may be creaky now, but we can still stand up for love!

[Sarah]

Hey Steve, I think it's safe to say from your comment that you support the amendment and want it to pass.

I do have one question: why do you harbor so much hate? You're risking denying rights to groups that have nothing to do with the amendment's targets; different groups see different degrees of risk, but why take any when gay marriage is already illegal in North Carolina?

[Wayne]

This isn't about "hate" (the new buzz word for gays), it is about preserving what society know is true: that marriage is a sacred union between one man and one woman, pure and simple. To be against something doesn't mean that you hate it or hate anyone, it means that you have values and convictions about certain things. So stop "hating" people that don't see it your way. Remember, if you want "tolerance", then practice tolerance yourself!

[David]

Wayne, maybe you shouldn't be the one teaching people how to be tolerant when it seems pretty obvious from your post that you're opposed to gay marriage.

What "society knows to be true" is what the people of that society want to be true, not what was true thousands of years ago when someone else wrote down the history and laws of their society. If you want to base our society on the Old Testament why stop at limiting homosexual's freedom to live in civil union? Why don't we continue on with God's decision to kill homosexuals with fire and brimstone? I mean if we're going to live by the Bible, let's REALLY live by the Bible!

[Derek]

If, in fact, marriage is a "sacred union" and has anything to do with religion then the very fact that we are making laws about it is unconstitutional. The government should get its hands out of marriage and allow churches to offer "marriages" to whomever they want. Civil unions, however, are nothing more than contracts offered by the government to a pair of people, and should therefore be made available to all pairs of consenting adults, regardless of their gender make-up. Not doing so is also unconstitutional under the equal protection clause. Amendment one is so clearly unconstitutional no matter which way you look at it, I cant even believe it's up for vote. Even if it passes, it is only a matter of time before it gets struck down by the courts. (Once we have a Supreme Court, that actually upholds the Constitution like they should...)

[Octavia]

You know what ignorance is BLISS... God didn't like ugly and thats ALL He didn't like and since that is the case, maybe you should die . It isn't cool to be inconsiderate of others people feelings , I'm sure theres someone in your family that supports or is homosexual and since that just MIGHT Be the case do you think they should also die , that's todays generation so get it together . Like I said ignorance is bliss .... Or maybe nobody loves you ... might that be the problem ?

[Monica]

What is wrong with you people of today. God said that he WILL accept us HOMOSEXUALS as we are. He doesn't judge us. So why are you? As far as I'm concerned nobody on this Earth is PERFECT! I'm not and neither are you! Everyone is so quick to point their ugly little fingers at Homosexuals as far as I'm concerned NOBODY has the right to judge no one. As a human race why aren't we equal with everyone else. You snobby ass people are so QUICK to look down and turn your nose up at us, for what reason do you know? Everytime that GAY MARRIAGE is brought up someone always wants to bring in religion. Im a Christian and im BISEXUAL. In the bible it says that " Marriage should be between a woman and a man". BUT it DOESN'T say it HAS to be. SO lay the fuck off and chill. I feel bad for you all. You judge someone before you even get to know them. So as far as I'm concerned, I just shitted on you. Have a good day, and God Bless you all. Monica E.

[Monica]

You Christians STAY throwing GAY MARRIAGE and the BIBLE in peoples faces. But yet you all call us FAGGOTS, DYKES,& LESBOS. CHRISTIANS DONT DO THAT!