Heller holds small lead in Nevada

PPP's newest look at the Nevada Senate race finds the same thing most of its polling on the contest has found: a narrow advantage for Dean Heller. The incumbent leads with 46% to 43% for Shelley Berkley. Four PPP polls conducted since last April have found a 4 point Heller lead, a 3 point advantage, a tie, and now another 3 point advantage.

One thing worth noting since PPP's last poll of the race is that Berkley's favorability numbers have taken a bad turn. 33% of voters say they have a positive opinion of her to 40% with a negative one.  The 3 previous polls had found her at 38/35, 33/33, and 34/31. Berkley's had some not so great press coverage and it does appear to be impacting her image.

Heller's approval numbers have pretty consistently stayed on narrowly positive ground in the low 40's or upper 30's since he was appointed to the Senate last spring. 43% of voters approve of him to 36% who disapprove. His higher than normal 23% approval rating with Democrats is the key to his success in a state that looks like it will probably go for Barack Obama again in 2012.

There are two key things driving Heller's ability to lead in the state even as PPP numbers that will be released tomorrow show Barack Obama at his greatest strength there since being elected. One is that Heller has the upper hand with independents, leading 52-39. The other is that he's peeling off a healthy percentage of the Democratic vote, getting 16% across party lines.

Berkley's significantly underperforming Obama with both Hispanics and African Americans. Berkley leads Heller by 21 with Hispanics, but Obama has a 39 point advantage over Mitt Romney with them. And Berkley's 47 point lead with African Americans is a good deal less than the 79 point advantage Obama has. Berkley, perhaps more than any other Democratic Senate candidate in the country, may be relying on Obama's coattails to win election.

This remains one of the closest races in the country, but Heller continues to have a nominal advantage.

Full results here

Comments

[atdnext]

On one hand, I can see how Heller's numbers may have gotten a bump from the recent media coverage of Berkley. However, the Latino and African-American numbers still look weird. Especially here in Clark County, there's little love for Heller among any of the minority communities.

Is there any chance of you at least doing a 702 area code (Clark County) and 775 area code (entire rest of state) breakdown in future polls? In other polls, it helps to see the regional breakdown.

[Tom Johnson]

So where are the Presidential figures. They are alluded to in the analysis but they are nowhere to be found when I click on the link.

[Edward Hamilton]

In the 06/12/2012 Nevada Republican primary, RON PAUL's convention DELEGATE EDDIE "In Liberty" HAMILTON has a huge ADVANTAGE over incumbent DEAN HELLER, as follows: the historically low turnout in the Nevada primary --where there is no presidential contest -- only 75,000 GOP voters are forecast to cast their ballots. Republican ED HAMILTON, however, is MOBILIZING some 50,000 new RON PAUL's VOTERS in the Silver state of Nevada. YOU DO THE MATH ....