The story in the New Mexico Senate race has been the same every time PPP's polled it- it's close, but Democrats have a small early advantage.
Our newest poll finds Martin Heinrich leading Heather Wilson 48-43 and Hector Balderas with a 44-43 advantage. Both match ups have seen only a small change from when PPP polled the state in December. At that time Heinrich led Wilson 47-40 and Balderas and Wilson were knotted at 43%.
It appears likely Heinrich will be the Democratic nominee. He has a 51-27 advantage over Balderas in the primary, up from 47-30 on our last poll. The candidates are running even with Hispanics at 40%, but Heinrich is leading on the basis of a 64-12 advantage with white voters. Heinrich leads across the ideological spectrum but is particularly strong with somewhat liberal voters (41 points) and very liberal ones (37 points) while holding a more modest 14 point advantage with moderates.
Honestly it's hard to see Wilson pulling this race out barring a big pro-GOP shift in the national political climate. She's pretty much already maxed out on her Republican support. And it seems unlikely she's really going to be able to hold the eventual Democratic nominee to 77% of the Democratic vote- just as Mitt Romney's share of the Republican vote has increased in polls since he became the presumptive nominee, Heinrich or Balderas' Democratic support should rise as well once their primary's in the rear view mirror. It's appropriate to call this race a toss up given its current competitiveness but it would be surprising if Heinrich didn't end up besting Wilson in the end.
Full results here