Democrats hold small lead in NM Senate race

The story in the New Mexico Senate race has been the same every time PPP's polled it- it's close, but Democrats have a small early advantage.

Our newest poll finds Martin Heinrich leading Heather Wilson 48-43 and Hector Balderas with a 44-43 advantage. Both match ups have seen only a small change from when PPP polled the state in December. At that time Heinrich led Wilson 47-40 and Balderas and Wilson were knotted at 43%.

It appears likely Heinrich will be the Democratic nominee. He has a 51-27 advantage over Balderas in the primary, up from 47-30 on our last poll. The candidates are running even with Hispanics at 40%, but Heinrich is leading on the basis of a 64-12 advantage with white voters. Heinrich leads across the ideological spectrum but is particularly strong with somewhat liberal voters (41 points) and very liberal ones (37 points) while holding a more modest 14 point advantage with moderates.

Wilson is staying competitive with Heinrich and Balderas in this increasingly Democratic state by peeling off 16-17% of the Democratic vote while losing just 4-5% of the Republican vote. What's keeping her from the lead right now is a lack of appeal to independent voters. Her favorability with them is 36/45, worse than her overall spread of 40/45, and she basically ties both Democrats with them. She's up 37-34 on Balderas, but down 40-37 to Heinrich. For a Republican to win New Mexico pretty much requires not just winning independents, but winning them by a healthy margin. Our final poll of the 2010 Governor's race in New Mexico found Susana Martinez with a 60-34 lead over Diane Denish with them.

Honestly it's hard to see Wilson pulling this race out barring a big pro-GOP shift in the national political climate. She's pretty much already maxed out on her Republican support. And it seems unlikely she's really going to be able to hold the eventual Democratic nominee to 77% of the Democratic vote- just as Mitt Romney's share of the Republican vote has increased in polls since he became the presumptive nominee, Heinrich or Balderas' Democratic support should rise as well once their primary's in the rear view mirror. It's appropriate to call this race a toss up given its current competitiveness but it would be surprising if Heinrich didn't end up besting Wilson in the end.

Full results here