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March 20, 2012

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Chris Ar

Translation: Brown is still up by 5.

Steve

If you bias the sample you can get any result you want. If you take 1/3 Democrat; 1/3 Republican and 1/4 Independent you'll get these results:

Brown (R) 89 x.333 = 29.6%
Warren (R) 3 x .333 = 1.0%

Brown (I) 48 x .333 = 16.0%
Warren (I) 36 x .333 = 12.0%

Brown (D) = 17 x .333 = 5.6%
Warren (D) = 72 x .333 = 24.0%

Total Brown = 29.6 + 16.0 + 5.6 = 51.2%
Total Warren = 1.0 + 12.0 + 24.0 = 37.0%

It's all about the sample and the Left loves to play these sampling games...

Raleigh, N.C. – Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren leads Republican Scott Brown
by 5 points, 46-41, a new poll from Public Policy Polling finds. Warren has increased her
lead from 46-44 the last time PPP polled Massachusettes in September 2011. Scott
Brown still enjoys almost unanimous support from Republicans, winning their share of
the vote 89-3. Brown even takes a fair share of Democratic voters, taking 17% of them
to Warren’s 72%, and he also wins independent voters by 12 points, 48-36. The
difference is that in his 2010 victory Brown won independent voters by 32 points.

Josh

Massachusetts has equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans?

Jason Paul

That is hilarious. On what planet is Mass 1/3D and 1/3R

neil

And as we all know, Massachusetts has an equal number of Republicans and Democrats.

RichardC

Steve, do you really believe that there will be an equal number of Republican and Democratic voters in MASSACHUSETTS? Come on, at least try with your trolling.

Chris A.

Steve - There's just one problem with that. It's Massachusettes where Democrats considerably overwhelm Republicans. By your logic, you're predicting that Massachusettes will be close between Obama and Romney in the fall. It won't be.

Here's the key question to ask yourself. Ignore samples for now. How many Obama voters will also vote for Brown? If it's low or none, then Warren will likely win based purely on the amount of Dems/GOP/Indies in MA. If it's high? Then Brown will have a shot.

Alexjon

Sample bias reflects reality and not partisan fantasy. It looks at voter participation and identity, not some contrived knee-jerk vision of what you personally feel a locale's partisan split is.

nv

Uh, Steve: of course it's all about sample — it's a poll... — but if that's your guess as to the Party ID's in MA electorate in presidential year, well, I can't help you.

Typical numbers in actual MA statewide elections are closer to 50% D, 25% R, and 25% I, which makes sense when you realize Obama won MA 61-36 (i.e., he took Dems and about half of Independents).

DCCyclone

I'm so sorry you guys have to endure dunces like the two above in comments, but I hope you at least get humor out of them.

NROCruiseDir

Well, Steve..we Lefties do like to play sampling games....just like you Righties do. But fit this factoid into your sampling analysis.

2008 Presidential results-

Democrats 1.9MM (62% of vote)
Republicans 1.1MM (36% of vote)

With your Republican sponsored war on woman and no jobs economic plan, think you're going to do better this cycle? LMAO

John E.

What is the registration % breakdown in MA? Shouldn't Dems be sampled more based on voting patterns?

Amy

I didn't actually look at his sample, but looking at MA voter registration, 11.34% of registered voters choose to affiliate with the Republican party. Likely, active voters pushes that up to about 14% of the voting population. I cannot imagine why PPP should sample Republicans any more than 15% of the electorate, at most.

SED

I live in MA and the registration break down is 52% indie, 33% Dem, 12% GOP, and 3% Green.

BobM

Ah liberals.... they are born into it and only the smart ones grow up to become Conservatives.

Maybe the split is 62% to 36% but half the Democrats I know won't vote for that phony 1%'r Warren.

George

Are you going to poll Louisiana primary on thursday and friday?

jerold duquette

Actual voter reg in MA is roughly 35%Dems, 14%Rep, and 51% Unenrolled voters.

Obama 2012

Richarddc - I'm afraid this guy isn't "trolling" ... he's just dumb. I know it's hard to tell the difference with these folks...

valar84

According to Wikipedia*, Massachusetts is 37% registered Democrats and 11% registered Republicans. In 2008, in the CNN exit polls**, the voter ID was split 43% Democratic, 17% Republican and 40% Independents, likely because Republicans are likelier to vote than Democrats, who are still much likelier to voter than Independents.

Using the registration ratios, you get 45,7% Warren and 41,0% Brown. Using the ratios of the 2008 election yields 45,6% Warren and 41,6% Brown. So exactly what they report.

If you want to find bias, keep searching, Steve.

*source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states
**source: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#MAP00p1

Joe Sixpack

Demoralized dems won't be out at the polls in Nov.

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