Santorum tops in Nebraska

Rick Santorum is the strongest Presidential candidate in Nebraska- for both the primary and general elections.

Santorum's the top choice of 39% of GOP voters in Nebraska to 25% for Mitt Romney, 16% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Ron Paul. Santorum is very popular with Republicans in the state, at a 64/22 favorability rating. None of the other contenders can even hit 50% there, with Romney at 46/39, Gingrich at 38/42, and Paul at 30/52.

As has been the case everywhere he's done well, Santorum's strength is based on support from the most conservative groups of the Republican electorate. He's up 53-18 on Romney with 'very conservative' voters, and also has a 48-18 advantage with Tea Party voters. Nebraska also provides another example of Romney's difficulty connecting with Evangelicals. He's actually up 29-28 with non-Evangelical voters but is still getting crushed overall because of his 50-22 deficit with Evangelicals.

Nebraska's another state where Santorum would gain in a big way if Newt Gingrich got out of the race. His lead would expand to 21 points with him getting 51% to 30% for Romney and 10% for Paul.

Santorum's the strongest candidate in the general election in Nebraska as well. He leads Barack Obama by 17 points at 55-38. The other Republicans lead by smaller, but still healthy, margins. Romney and Paul are each up by 12 at 51-39 and 49-37 respectively. Gingrich is the weakest of the GOP hopefuls, leading Obama by 9 points at 49-40.

Obama's unpopular in Nebraska with only 38% of voters approving of him to 59% who disapprove. Those numbers have actually improved from PPP's last poll in the state in early October when he was at 35/61 but still make it one of his worst states in the country.

Despite his poor statewide figures, it looks like Obama's in position to compete again for an electoral vote in the state's Omaha based 2nd Congressional District. Obama trails Romney by just a single point there at 46-45, and he ties Santorum at 47% each. Obama's not very popular in that district, posting a 44/52 approval rating. But Romney (37/52 favorability) and Santorum (37/50) aren't all that popular there either. Nebraska should get at least a small taste of swing state excitement again this fall.

Full results here

Comments

[Alan Snipes]

I'm glad that you took this poll. Without it, I would never know that a Republican candidate for President would have been favored in Nebraska!
Here's a novel idea, why not poll states like Iowa which are important and which the last statewide poll there had Romney ahead?

[bonncaruso]

Alan Snipes: you may want to consider that the numbers from core states are as important as the numbers from battleground states. If you will notice, the margins from NE have NOT sprung back to the +20s and +30s like they were for Bush Jr or Reagan or Nixon or Eisenhower. The kinds of margins coming out of Nebraska in no way show a GOP wave forming for November.

So, put your sarcasm aside and learn to learn from all sorts of data.

[Barb Bricker]

Alan, Santorum won IOWA the first time around, and can do it aain.

[Mark B.]

Mr. Snipes,

Polling Nebraska was important. Getting a read on the Senate race there was important; now we know that the state is unfortunate, and knowing that is better than being in the dark on what might have been an important Senate race.

As important as Senate races are this cycle (being a Hoosier I know they are) even the Presidential contest matters in NE-2.

[CindyLou New]

http://www.reservedpowers.blogspot.com/2012/02/who-convinced-me-to-vote-for-rick.html

Reserved Powers: Who Convinced Me to Vote for Rick Santorum? Rick Santorum Did.

reservedpowers.blogspot.com
Life is Precious. Thoughts about life from a Pro-Life Catholic wife, mother, an...

[Alan Snipes]

To my fellow critics: I already knew these things before this poll was done. This poll is not informative at all. I knew Kerry and Obama were losing badly and that Cong -2 was close.
This state means NOTHING this fall so why waste money on polling it, instead of some other states that are key to both the Senate and Presidential races?

[Ann Pierce]

Santorum knows he cannot win the nomination. At this point his only motivation for staying in is to damage the Republican party and to weaken the candidate (Romeny) to where he will not be able to win Obama. Rick is PRAYING for an Obama victory so he can run again in four years. If Romney wins he will most likely have to wait for 8 more years. Every delegate he grabs from Romney makes it more likely Obama will win. If he damages the party and candidate beyond repair we will have Santorum to thank and Santorum to blame. Romney stepped aside in 08 in a timely fashion giving McCain the best chance possible. Santorum will never be able to say that he did the same.

[LKelley]

Barb, Santorum won the Republican Caucus in Iowa, which has only Republicans voting (no stinky Democrats allowed). In 2008, Barack Obama won the general election, 54% to McCain's 44% (3rd party candidates got the other 2% of the vote). That's 10%. Santorum has a chance (hell, Ron Paul has a chance), but it's not a sure thing (though more sure than Ron Paul).

Also, in general, the fact that Nebraska splits its electoral votes is usually forgotten because my state usually goes about as red as our foot ball team (GO BIG RED) and all 5 generally go to the Republican candidate. But, Omaha is a funny place. It's the largest city in the state and comprises almost all of NE-2. NE-1 and NE-3 (especially) are very, very rural, even though NE-1 has the capital city of Lincoln. I'm actually very encouraged (as a Democrat living here) that Obama has a chance of winning one of NE's electoral votes this year.

And, finally, Mark, thank you for pointing out that Mr. Kerrey's Senatorial ambitions are important. My state may suck, but it's not that bad. Hell, we invented Kool-aid in Hastings, NE. Cool people were born here: Malcolm X, Fred Astaire, Marlon Brando, Johnny Carson. (Though so was L. Ron Hubbord, the Scientology guy, and Dick Cheney). So, yeah, I'll get off my "Nebraska isn't the suckiest state ever" soap box.

[Obama 2012]

Good to see the margins not too large in Nebraska. If Romney wins Nebraska by only 12% points that is a very bad sign for him.

[E]

ONLY 12%? Undecideds probably haven't weighed in yet, once they do, McCain's 15% margin of victory will appear