Romney holds small lead nationally

PPP's newest national poll finds that Mitt Romney leads with 34% to 31% for Rick Santorum, 20% for Newt Gingrich, and 9% for Ron Paul. But if Gingrich dropped out Santorum would have a small lead with 41% to 40% for Romney and 11% for Paul.

46% of Republican primary voters actually do think it's time for Gingrich to drop out, while 42% think he should continue on. 48% of his supporters would go to Santorum, while 33% would pick Romney. Gingrich dropping out being worth 4 points to Santorum is also what we found on our Illinois poll over the weekend- it would be a boost to Santorum, but not necessarily a game changing one.

A deeper look at the favorability numbers for the two front runners shows two campaigns headed in opposite direction. Romney's net favorability of +19 (54/35) is up 18 points from our national poll in February, a sign of increasing acceptance with the GOP base. Santorum is actually more well liked than Romney with a net favorability of +29 (59/30). But his numbers are headed in the wrong direction, a 13 point drop from his lofty +42 (64/22) standing a month ago.

Romney has much more solid support than either Santorum or Gingrich. 61% of his supporters say they'll definitely vote for him, compared to 48% of Santorum's and 45% of Gingrich's who express that sentiment. Among just voters whose minds are totally made up Romney's lead expands to 12 points at 42-30. It's a little remarkable that as long as this race has gone on, only 53% of voters say they're firmly committed to a candidate right now.

The talk of a brokered convention never seems to die down and one interesting finding on this poll was that Sarah Palin is far more popular than any of the actual Republican candidates in the race. Her net favorability is +48, with 68% of voters rating her favorably to only 20% with a negative opinion. That compares favorably to +29 for Santorum, +19 for Romney, and -26 for Paul.

Palin is someone GOP delegates might be able to unify around in the case of a hopelessly deadlocked convention. She is seen positively by Gingrich voters (85/7), Santorum supporters (80/10), and Romney ones (57/27) alike. That's a contrast to Romney who is disliked by both Santorum (38/48) and Gingrich (32/54) voters and Santorum who is disliked by Romney (38/48) voters and only seen narrowly favorably by Gingrich (46/42) backers.

One other side note after the Puerto Rico primary was in the spotlight over the weekend- only 22% of Republican primary voters support Puerto Rican statehood, while 49% are opposed to it and 29% have no opinion.

Full results here

Comments

[Steve]

Romney is truly a weak frontrunner to still be tied at this stage in the campaign - and Gallup confirms your figures. Will you be doing Louisiana figures before Saturday? I understand if you don't obviously, but it would still be cool.

Oh and I don't mean to be boring about it but we had the North Carolina monthly poll go by and I can't seem to find anything about the marriage amendment. Any news on that?

Thanks!

[Obama 2012]

It's remarkable how bad a candidate Mitt "Etch A Sketch" Romney really is... that he's only barely ahead of Santorum at this point is amazing.

Romney will have to hope his "reset button" works because otherwise he's going to have too much crazy stuck to him to compete this fall.

[Rhonda Sue]

Sarah Palin? LOL. No thanks.

[Patrick Duffey]

Mitt is finding out the hard way, for the second time, that some things just can't be bought...

Like....you can’t purchase a reputation you don’t have on conservatism, abortion, gun control, and mandates.

Or...13,000 negative ads (in FL alone) against your opponents record, that were not true, and deeply offensive to those who lived and participated in the Contract with America.

Mitt may win the nomination but to this Reagan Republican he is damaged goods and unreliable.

I would choose Governor Sarah Palin is an instant over him.

[Morgan Michaels]

"Sarah Palin is far more popular than any of the actual Republican candidates in the race. Her net favorability is +48… That compares favorably to… +19 for Romney…"

But…but… "Sarah Palin isn't a serious human being" & "She won't be even the third or fourth person you think of for the Republican nomination" …Mitt Romney's surrogates assured us of this back in 2008 *during* the presidential campaign.

This must just be a scheme by those 'Pro-Palin' progressives at PPP to undermine the 'true conservative' in this race… Mitt "Etch-a-Sketch" Romney!

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/sarcasm

[JS]

Rhonda Sue:

Don't you mean "Tanks but no tanks"?

You betcha.

[Dan Skinner]

heheheheh... sarah palin...for anything... watch Game Change.. heheheheh sarah palin.... heheheheheh...

[Obama 2012]

I think the fact that there are still people who would support Sarah Palin for President shows how perilous democracy really is. This is a woman who clearly shouldn't ever be in the White House as anything other than a guest ... I mean, this is just ridiculously obvious. She doesn't know anything about anything and she's not particularly bright. Yet there are still people who think she should be President. It's just... scary.

[ThePalinPatriot]

Patrick Duffey is a Romney operative or an Obama operative.
Otherwise,to say someone who is a principled and incorruptable politician who talks about love and forgiveness is "not a worthy human being" needs to take a real hard look at themselves. Sorry, Patrick, but your nasty comments are not very human worthy. But Sarah and I both still orgive you, for you know not what you speak.

[tina]

If Sarah Palin would step in and do us the honor of leading America. You would see a Patriotic Wave across America like none other in your lifetime. "Sarah is Not For Sale" she loves God and Country,America needs you Sarah. We The People need you.