Obama up in NC, primary hinges on Newt

North Carolina provides a great example of the spoiler role Newt Gingrich is now playing in the Republican Presidential race. With Gingrich in the field a split conservative vote allows Mitt Romney to lead in the state with 31% to 27% for Rick Santorum, 24% for Gingrich, and 8% for Ron Paul. But if Gingrich was out of the picture most of his support would go to Santorum, giving last night's big winner 42% to 38% for Romney and 10% for Paul.

Digging in on the numbers with some key groups shows how the conservative split aids Romney. Among Tea Party voters Santorum gets 31% to 30% for Gingrich and 25% for Romney. Take Gingrich out and Santorum's advantage with those folks is 52-37. Similar story with Evangelicals- full field it's Santorum at 31% t0 28% for Romney and 26% for Gingrich. Take Gingrich out and Santorum's advantage with that group is 49/33. And with 'very conservative' voters Santorum's at 35% to 28% for Gingrich and 23% for Romney full field, but up 57-28 on Romney if Gingrich was out of the race.

Whoever the Republican nominee is Barack Obama has an advantage over him right now. Obama leads Romney by 3 points, 49-46. That's up from a 1 point lead a month ago. And Obama's ahead of Santorum by 5 points, 49-44. That's up from a 2 point lead in February. Obama's up 48-41 on Ron Paul and 51-42 on Newt Gingrich.

Obama's breaking even on his approval numbers in the state with 49% giving him good marks and 49% poor ones. This is the first time since last June Obama hasn't been under water in North Carolina. Obama hit a low water mark in September 43/53. He's seen modest improvement with Democrats and Republicans since then, but the really big shift is with independents. He's gone from 31/62 with them to 46/51- they're still not fond of him but he's coming a lot closer to breaking even now than he did six months ago.

Part of Obama's good numbers in North Carolina are a function of his own improved popularity, but he's also benefiting from the poor image of his opponents. As we're finding in most swing states Mitt Romney is very unpopular with only 31% of voters seeing him favorably to 56% with a negative opinion. Rick Santorum doesn't do much better- his favorability spread is 36/52.

This poll just confirms what we see every month in North Carolina- Barack Obama is holding his ground and although the GOP may gain some ground once it finally unifies around a nominee, this is most definitely a swing state.

Full results here

Comments

[fred]

I know most people are requesting that you poll MA, but it would be interesting to see how Bob Kerry is doing in NE.

[Mark]

In 2008 Obama won 49.7% of the vote in NC. McCain won 49.4%.

In 2008 he was an unknown. Today he has a record. Do you really expect us to believe Obama will better this?

[The Interesting Times]

I hope you don't end up polling Florida, Iowa, Massachusetts, Nevada, or any other states that have already had their primaries, this weekend. Seems like you should prioritize the states that haven't voted yet.

[Alan Snipes]

This is good news for the President and his supporters. If he wins North Carolina, he won't need it.

[Scott]

@ Fred: states like NC keep attracting people (like me) to move here from other states. Changing demographics as well as unpalatable alternatives and a better economy can make it possible for O'Bama to win again in NC.

[Dustin Ingalls]

Mark: You obviously don't know anything about NC, which is one of the fastest-growing states in the country, and has been for 20 years. Some estimate that a third of the state's population did not live here four years ago. Most of the voters who move here are more liberal than the natives and more educated. We asked in a poll one month last year when respondents first lived in NC, and those who moved here or were born 20 years ago or after were going for Obama by 20 points over Romney. (Tom Jensen and I are among this group.) That was a huge chunk of the electorate, and this was when Obama was in worse shape than he is now.

So Obama's decline with independents and and moderate/conservative Dems is buffered by the sheer demographic shifts taking place in this state, plus his continuing popularity with black and Hispanic voters (and growing popularity with the latter because of Republican rhetoric on immigration). That's why you see him holding his ground or even improving in other growing, diverse states like VA, CO, NM, and AZ relative to states which are declining in population and which are older and whiter, like OH, PA, NH, and most of the Midwest.

[realnrh]

To look at it another way, the conservative split also helps keep Romney's numbers down. With Gingrich in the picture, Romney gets about 31/82 of the meaningful vote (excluding no-response and Paul votes, as Paul is not competitive and unlikely to win delegates). With Gingrich out, Romney gets 38/80 of the meaningful vote, which gives him near the ~50% he needs to average at this point. If Gingrich's presence keeps Romney getting about 40% of the delegates instead of 50% going forward, Gingrich's presence could be enough to keep Romney from clinching the nomination. He's pretty well admitted that's his goal now, to block Romney and try to win at the convention.

[Taylor Mills]

What republican rhetoric on immigration? I hear this comment from liberals all the time when in reality, deportations have skyrocketed under Obama and immigration rates are way down. Republicans really haven't done anything to fight illegal immigration, and they certainly could if they wanted to. Furthermore, the vast majority of Americans, democrats included, would support these efforts. We could go around in circles debating the real reasons why minorities tend to back the president, but it is not because of that.

Obama has been terrible for Hispanics, and I doubt that in 20 years they will be a reliably democratic voting bloc unless democrats can successfully play the race card for that much longer. That remains to be seen.

[Obama 2012]

Mark: yes, the President has a record and unlike what you may have seen on Fox - it's actually a pretty impressive record. he has successfully turned around the Bush Recession, he successfully had Bin Laden killed (something Bush couldn't do in 7+ years), he successfully had health care reform passed (something Clinton couldn't do in the 90s), he has decreased US dependence on foreign oil (unlike Bush) ... and that's just a start.

Here's 218 reasons to vote for Obama:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2012/02/24/what-do-americans-think-of-obamas-performance-as-a-president/

[Ron Smith]

Funny how the undecided vote jumps up when Obama is pitted against Paul. The libs can't decide if ending all US foreign occupations is worth giving up Obama's liberal domestic policy. Decisions, decisions...

[tbert]

@Ron Smith: Of course liberals are confused; Ron Paul is really good at making his lassaiz-faire antifederalism come off as some variety of anti-interventionist libertarianism. But the fact is, he's never actually come under the spotlight that a general Presidential campaign would shine on him. Do you really think that those on the left would continue to consider Paul after the constant drumbeat that would arise concerning his intimate involvement with, and probable authorship of, racially-charged newsletters that existed solely to grift money from the small-minded and gullible? Or that his being just fine with a host of state actions that are anathema to liberals (e.g., outlawing abortion) would be just fine with him, as long as it was the states, not the feds, doing it?