Obama leads GOP field by small margins

PPP's newest national poll finds Barack Obama leading all of his potential Republican opponents, although by slightly smaller margins than he did a month ago.

In the most likely match up Obama leads Mitt Romney 48-44. In February Obama's advantage was 7 points at 49-42. The main difference is that Romney is now taking 15% of the Democratic vote, up from 10% he was getting a month ago.

When Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is included Obama's lead expands to 7 points at 46-39, with Johnson taking 7%. 39% of Johnson voters would support Romney if Johnson wasn't in the picture, while only 18% would go for Obama. I doubt Johnson will really get anywhere close to 7% in the general, but the numbers do make it clear that Obama's base is more committed to him than Romney's is and that any half serious third party bid is more likely to hurt Romney's support.

Reversing a trend of falling favorability numbers Romney's net favorability is -25 this month at 33/58. That's actually a slight improvement from -28 a month ago at 29/57. To put those numbers into some perspective though, we were asked on Twitter this morning whether Romney or George W. Bush is more popular. The answer is Bush by a wide margin. Last month we found 45% of voters rating him favorably to 46% with a negative opinion.

The difference is mainly among Republicans. Bush is at 79/15 with them compared to 49/42 for Romney and there's a good chance once Romney locks up the nomination that the party will unify around him and he'll get closer to Bush. But Bush also does better with independents (36/50 to Romney's 29/58) and they're about equal among Democrats with Romney at 20/71 and Bush at 19/73.

Romney is actually not the most electable Republican candidate on this poll. Ron Paul and Rick Santorum both do a point better than him, trailing by 3 points at 46-43 and 48-45 respectively. As we often find to be the case Paul is the strongest candidate with independents, tying Obama with them while the rest of the GOP field trails by 6-15 points. The reason Santorum does better than Romney is a slightly more unified Republican base, getting 81% of his party vote to 78% for Romney.

The only Republican who doesn't improve on the margin of John McCain's loss in 2008 is Newt Gingrich, who trails by 8 points at 50-42. Only 28% of voters have a favorable opinion of Gingrich to 61% with a negative one.

Full results here

Comments

[Richard]

How on EARTH is Robot Romney getting 15% of the Democratic vote??????....That sample size must have included large # of hardcore Hillary Clinton suppporters who are still mad she didn't win nomination in 2008 and/or too many Reagan Democrats....

[Singapom]

So, let's get this right: the President's vote is lowest against Ron Paul. So Paul weakens Obama's base the most...

[PunchingDonkey]

Sounds like a crock.

[Obama 2012]

That Obama 48% Santorum 45% thing freaks me out. WTF America? WTF?! How in the hell can an obvious lunatic like Santorum be doing that good? ... Creepy.

[Colram]

Since most Republicans will vote the R ticket regardless of who the nominee is, most Ron Paul folks will vote for only Paul, and Independents and disaffected Dems will vote almost exclusively Paul.....Ron Paul is the only Republican candidate who can beat Obama in November.

[Beat The Media]

So this looks like Ron Paul is the best chance at beating Obama. Humm and the MSM has nothing to say about this anywhere?

[Jeff Pierson]

Title should be "Ron Paul is the most electable Republican against Obama".

[George]

With even some states such as Virginia showing Obama leading by a larger margin (even Rasmussen has Obama ahead by high single digits in VA), I believe Romney and Santorum are racking up big numbers in the 65-70% range in some states to remain close in the national polls, and I believe it is happening in states such as Nebraska and Kansas and even in Missouri. Your Nebraska poll this weekend should shed more light into this.

[Steve]

A question I have that surprised me somewhat is that the GOP candidates break into double-digit support amongst African-Americans. Does this mean there is erosion in Obama's black support, PPP?

[Glaba]

Ron Paul 2012!!

President Ron Paul will be a better president than Reagan.

President Ron Paul will cut spending, balance the budget in 3 years, bring the troops home and stop imperialistic nation-building. Ron Paul is the most honest and smartest candidate ever.

Ron Paul 2012!

[Julie]

When the real debates begin, there is no doubt Dr. Ron Paul will be the clear winner. Michelle planting her GMO seeds on the toxic White house lawn will be replaced by really delicious and nutritious homemade cookies inside the kitchen by Mrs. Paul. (I bet she will even tidy up afterwards herself!)

[Derek]

"I doubt Johnson will really get anywhere close to 7% in the general"

I like how you say your polling has no correlation to reality.

[John]

Ron Paul 2012, Knowbody else can make as much change as Ron Paul