North Carolinians support, but don't understand marriage amendment

PPP's newest look at the marriage amendment in North Carolina finds it passing by a wide margin, but also that voters don't really understand what the ban does and that once they do things get a lot closer.

58% of voters in the state say that they'll vote yes on Amendment 1, while 38% are opposed to it. Republicans pretty universally support it, 76/20. Democrats are closely divided with 48% in support and 47% opposed. White Democrats are opposed to the proposed ban, but African Americans support it 61/30.

The group most opposed is actually independents, who say they'll vote against it 55/42. That's an important commentary on unaffiliated voters beyond this issue- they lean Republican in North Carolina right now because they're unhappy with the economy, but they're not hardcore social conservatives. The GOP needs to be careful about going too far out on a limb on social issues if it wants to keep its support with independents.

Although our poll finds support for the amendment, it also finds that 51% of voters in the state support some form of legal recognition for gay couples- 26% for marriage and 25% for civil unions- with only 45% completely opposed to any. It may seem inconsistent that a majority supports either gay marriage or civil unions but also supports the amendment that would ban both of them. But what we find is that voters don't actually know what it does:

-Only 31% of voters correctly identify that Amendment 1 bans both gay marriage and civil unions.

-28% think that it only bans gay marriage.

-7% think that it actually legalizes gay marriage.

-34% admit that they don't know exactly what the amendment does.

When voters are informed that the amendment bans both gay marriage and civil unions their tune changes quite a bit. Only 41% of voters say they'll support it knowing that, while 42% are opposed. So despite the large current lead for the amendment, there is some hope for those trying to defeat it. It's just going to take a lot of education and effort over the final six weeks to make sure voters really understand exactly what they're voting on.

Full results here

Comments

[mikeel]

very gloomy poll on this--

If it passes, this could point a way forward for the GOP to push through amendments similar to this in other states.

[ben]

Thank you for posting this. We will continue to work relentlessly to educate voters and inform them why they should vote AGAINST Amendment One on May 8.

[John]

How will the Dem Governor primary affect the measure? How will the GOP presidential primary affect the measure? If the GOP primary is over (Santorum and Newt are out by May) will that help defeat measure 1? Will a contested Dem primary affect measure 1?

[Steven M]

I understand your point, but I think it is somewhat inaccurate to say that voters "don't understand" the amendment or need to "be educated." Its comments like that which can irritate people and make them more likely to support the amendment.

Why do I say this? My mother is a prime example - she says that she supports civil unions in theory, but she is quite traditional and probably wouldn't support them if she knew they offered nearly identical rights as marriage. She is still voting FOR the amendment because she cares way more about preventing gay marriage than she does about giving same-sex couples legal rights.

Many people I know are annoyed by the gay lobby (which I am a part of - oh well) because they perceive it as too pushy and against their core values. When people say that they support civil unions but not gay marriage, most of them are really saying "I am fine with gay people, I just don't want gay marriage." So, they try to sound moderate in their answer.

This amendment will probably pass with around 65% of the vote. I am against it for sure - but I know my friends and family well and even most of them are in favor. NC may vote for gay rights some day, but it will not be on May 8. The privacy of the voting booth offers a great deal of cover.

In any event, thank you for your polling on this issue - I believe it to be the most accurate out there.

[Shaun]

How is that Democrats are barely braking even while Independents are heavily opposed to the Amendment? I guess I shouldn't be all that suprised. North Carolina is below the mason-dixon line. Maybe turnout will be low during the Republican primary and Bob Ethridge and the others on the democratic side can get voters to the polls. It would be nice to see a southern state buck the trend for once.

[Gene Hoglan]

Shaun: the near even Democratic support/oppose numbers are in large part because roughly half the Democratic party electorate in NC is African-American voters, who as the poll points out support it 2:1. Black voters tend to be socially conservative, especially so in the South.

In the crosstabs under the question of degrees of support for gay partnership recognition a majority (54%) of African-Americans polled respond they support no recognition, the highest percentage among any polled ethnic group. However once informed what the amendment actually does, they responded nearly identically to whites, split almost evenly between voting for/against, though with a slightly higher undecided percentage.

[Steven M]

To answer the post above me, I think its because African-Americans tend to be strongly opposed to same-sex marriage and in favor of this amendment, and they make up a very large proportion of democrats in NC. White democrats are opposed to amendment 1.

[p.brooks]

Thank God our Founding Fathers saw fit to include freedom of speech in our Constitution. There should be no 'approval' needed from the author, it's my opinion and I'm entitled to it, so you have no choice but to post it or face problems with censorship.
It's very clear what our state government wants to do and I agree. Ultra-liberals out there want to muddy the waters and avoid the main point. ANY union other than man & woman is wrong Biblically, morally, ethically they are wrong. Our Nation was founded on Christian beliefs, ergo, we are doing the right thing by banning gay unions and (attempting to) enforce a morally correct way of living. Sadly there are people out there who can't figure it all out. There's still hope.
Look it up: Marriage is between a man and woman, nothing else. It's in the Bible, Koran or what have you. God intended us to marry and procreate...how else can you do that other than man and woman? Wake up people, the right way is the only way. How can two men or two women properly bring up a child, much less have one? Short answer: they can't. I hope like hell this amendment banning gay unions passes and we can get on to more important things. Can I get an AMEN out there?

[Susan Teague Moses]

The righteous are always so right ... not.
I know plenty of church goers down there who still use the "N" word. Plenty of people in NC hate whoever is not like them. You can look it up all day long in any religious book but the truth is you are governed by North Carolina law, not biblical law. If that were so I'm sure plenty of NC Christians
with heterosexual marriages would be stoned to death for adultery. Gays are not threatening your marriage, you are.
I might not ever come home to the state I love if it is filled with bigots and haters who can't live and let live. AMEN

[Mark]

I just don't want the state in more of my, our business Gays don't threaten me let them have a union. All are sinners, for those bible people. I am one but if you think God thinks less of a gay then you have a long way and a lot to learn.

[Petros I-R]

Although my mother is strictly opposed to this, I am all for it. I think homosexuality is wrong and ungodly. I think they do NOT deserve equal rights. As human beings, yes. As homosexuals, no.

[Joe Bloe]

I demand a constitutional amendment banning Gluttony. It's one of the seven deadly sins for Christ's sake, and way worse than homosexuality!

[bob s]

People do not understand what a serious threat the homosexual lobby is to our country, society, and way of life. First off, so called "gay rights" are a threat to the freedoms of speech and religion; in Sweden a pastor was arrested in his own church for preaching a biblical pro-family message, in Philadelphia a 74-year-old grandmother faced 47 years in prison for doing nothing more than standing on a public sidewalk and speaking against homosexuality. Furthermore allowing homosexuals to marry is in direct conflict to religious beliefs, and marriage is a religious institution, not a government institution. Therefore the government cannot redefine marriage for all of us and demand that those opposed to homosexual marriage for religious reasons now must recognize it.
Also, throughout history one can clearly see that marriage is the cornerstone of society- even communist nations have recognized this and that is why they forbid homosexual marriage. Homosexuality had a large role in the decline of ancient Greece (look it up), and if we do not stand against it, it will have a role in our decline as well.
It is vital that NC stand up for freedom, stand up for values, and stand up for America and pass issue 1 on May 8.