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March 07, 2012


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Interesting post. Just for interest sake, how likely is there to be a so-called 'Bradley Effect' on the marriage vote - where it will be closer than actually predicted because people aren't always honest with their answers to a pollster on controversial issues?

Thanks in advance for the reply.

Mike P.

Do you guys not ask about marriage/civil unions/no recognition if a majority says they support same-sex marriage when asked yes or no on the question?

Dustin Ingalls

Our polls in '09 on Maine's referendum were dead on, and there's less social desirability bias with automated polling than live interviewer polling.


Steve, PPP uses automated polling. The respondents don't talk to a human pollster. You just press a few keys on the phone.


Response to Steve:

From what I can recall, there has tended to be a Bradley effect, but mostly with live interviewer surveys - automated surveys such as PPP have been quite accurate on marriage polling in the past.

What I am slightly concerned about is that marriage polling tends to do somewhat worse among likely voters (who tend to be older and hence more traditional) than registered voters (which this survey covers), but that effect should be much smaller than the nice margin you found.

casey conley

There was something like a Bradley effect in Maine with the 2009 gay marriage vote. Polls showed 53-54 percent supported keeping the gay marriage law passed by the legislature leading up to the vote. On election day, the vote turned out 47-53 in support of getting rid of the gay marriage law. Something obviously happened...


So how does this work you just keep putting it up for a vote until you get the desired result?


Exactly how many people were questioned? I have seen polls like this everytime and at the end of the day, they majority of the people will ban it!

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