Washington State Poll

-PPP finds the race for Governor of Washington tied, with Jay Inslee and Rob McKenna each at 42%. McKenna had led 40-38 on PPP's only previous poll of the race, last May. The reason Inslee has closed that small gap is that he's now getting the same percentage of the Democratic vote- 81%- that McKenna is getting of the Republican vote.

Inslee's share of the Democratic vote has gone from 68% to 81%, while McKenna's share of the GOP vote has increased just slightly from 79% to 81%. McKenna continues to lead by double digits with independents, 43-31, but the vanishing of the party unity gap has knotted this race up.

Both of the Gubernatorial candidates are well liked with voters in the state and they've pulled about even on name recognition. 68% of voters are familiar with McKenna and he has a 39/29 favorability. 64% know Inslee and he has a 36/28 favorability. There aren't a lot of races these days where we find voters liking both of their choices.

-The vote on gay marriage in Washington looks like it should be pretty close. 50% of voters say they'll vote to uphold the law legalizing gay marriage, while 46% say they would vote to repeal it. You see the standard huge generational gap on this issue. Young voters support gay marriage 63/32, while seniors oppose it 56/39. Even if voters do repeal the law this fall, it's pretty clear the direction things are moving in.

While Washington voters are closely divided on marriage itself, 78% support some form of legal recognition for gay couples in the form of marriage or civil unions while only 20% think they should have no rights at all. Even 59% of Republicans at least support civil unions. That may bode well if there's a repeal vote this fall- almost all voters in the state are at least somewhat accepting of same sex relationships.

-Washington voters are also leaning toward legalizing marijuana. 47% of voters say they're currently inclined to vote yes on Initiative 502 to 39% who are opposed. This leads by double digits with every age group except for seniors, who oppose it 45/35.

Marijuana legalization is a much less partisan issue than gay marriage. Only 62% of Democrats support it, compared to 81% for gay marriage. But at the same time only 63% of Republicans oppose it, compared to 82% for gay marriage. Independent voters support both marijuana legalization and gay marriage.

-Christine Gregoire continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with 40% of voters approving of her to 53% who disapprove. The only Governors we've found with a higher disapproval rating than her in the last year are Hawaii's Neil Abercrombie and Florida's Rick Scott. Sometimes voters soften their feelings toward an outgoing incumbent as they leave office but that's not the case here.

-Patty Murray has a 50% approval rating, with 43% of voters disapproving of her. That's basically identical to where we found her last May, at 50/42. Only about a third of Senators have an approval at or above 50% in our polling, so those are pretty decent numbers.

Full results here

Comments

[Scott Downer]

http://i54.tinypic.com/xp2c1s.jpg Ron Paul Liberty has no price only Wealth

[mikeel]

Gov poll contradicts both Elway and SUSA, which show McKenna up 9. Looks like an oversample of women (54%).

[Peter in Seattle]

These results are pretty close to what I expected. I've noticed a trend that highlights the difference between automated polling and polling performed using live callers. Automated polls (like PPP) tend to understate support for progressive candidates and causes, and live-caller polls (like the University of Washington poll) tend to overstate support for them. For instance, in 2010, the automated polls constantly had Dino Rossi and Patty Murray running at either a statistical dead heat or with a slight advantage for Rossi. Live polls consistently had Murray ahead by anywhere from 4-8 points. Murray, of course, ultimately won re-election by a narrow margin (52-48 percent). Likewise, this year, the most recent UW poll (http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results.html) has gay marriage winning overwhelmingly (55-38 percent, with just 7 percent undecided). PPP has it polling much closer. Both polls have shown favor for legalizing marijuana.

I suspect that the vote on gay marriage this year (if there is one) will be similar to the results of Referendum 71 in 2009 - perhaps 52-48 or 53-47 in favor of the law, with the liberal central Puget Sound region edging out the much more conservative areas of the state by a narrow margin. (Of course, the margin of victory for gay marriage supporters COULD be larger with the higher turnout of young voters, since 2012 is a presidential election year, and 2009 was not.)

[Steve]

When it comes to a poll on the ballot issue of same-sex marriage to the actual election result, what have you found form your surveys historically speaking? Is the so called 'gay Bradley Effect' a real thing?

[Dave]

www.trunews.com with Rick Wiles.
the RobertScottBell show.
the PowerHour with Joyce Riley.