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February 22, 2012


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Scott Downer

http://i54.tinypic.com/xp2c1s.jpg Ron Paul Liberty has no price only Wealth


Gov poll contradicts both Elway and SUSA, which show McKenna up 9. Looks like an oversample of women (54%).

Peter in Seattle

These results are pretty close to what I expected. I've noticed a trend that highlights the difference between automated polling and polling performed using live callers. Automated polls (like PPP) tend to understate support for progressive candidates and causes, and live-caller polls (like the University of Washington poll) tend to overstate support for them. For instance, in 2010, the automated polls constantly had Dino Rossi and Patty Murray running at either a statistical dead heat or with a slight advantage for Rossi. Live polls consistently had Murray ahead by anywhere from 4-8 points. Murray, of course, ultimately won re-election by a narrow margin (52-48 percent). Likewise, this year, the most recent UW poll (http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results.html) has gay marriage winning overwhelmingly (55-38 percent, with just 7 percent undecided). PPP has it polling much closer. Both polls have shown favor for legalizing marijuana.

I suspect that the vote on gay marriage this year (if there is one) will be similar to the results of Referendum 71 in 2009 - perhaps 52-48 or 53-47 in favor of the law, with the liberal central Puget Sound region edging out the much more conservative areas of the state by a narrow margin. (Of course, the margin of victory for gay marriage supporters COULD be larger with the higher turnout of young voters, since 2012 is a presidential election year, and 2009 was not.)


When it comes to a poll on the ballot issue of same-sex marriage to the actual election result, what have you found form your surveys historically speaking? Is the so called 'gay Bradley Effect' a real thing?


www.trunews.com with Rick Wiles.
the RobertScottBell show.
the PowerHour with Joyce Riley.

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