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February 10, 2012


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If the bulk of voters in Maine voted after Tuesday the 7th, then Romney is likely going to lose tomorrow. Romney better hope the voters of Maine voted before Tuesday showed how weak he is in the midwest because if he loses again he will likely lose the nomination to Santorum.


The good folks of Main can forget Gingrich, he's history. Ron Paul will probably do good good because of his ground game in Maine. The only candidate that can win the general election is Romney, he can carry Independents where the other two can't. Santorum should pickup the non-Romney/Paul votes, he has the "big mo" after winning the last three states.


Given all this useful background info: I would be least surprised by Romney 36, Paul 34, Santorum 18, Gingrich 9, Scattered 3. Too bad for Santorum the caucuses are not all being held tomorrow. Smart of you not to poll ME, this contest is impossible to poll or predict.


I was wondering if it were possible to poll WA's Republican Caucuses on March 3rd. I haven't heard a single comment or mention of them in the national media. It just seems to be Arizona and Michigan and then Super Tuesday's Ohio and Georgia. We're a Pacific state so I don't see who could have an advantage here. Romeny probably would get the Seattle area but Santorum could easily get Eastern Washington. Ron Paul I could see being strong in the far north around Bellingham and down south near Vancouver. And Newt could be a little of everywhere. So I would just like to see some examination of my state to see how the NW votes. At least offer it up as a choice in the next "which state to poll next" poll.


You guys don't want to poll Maine because you know Ron Paul is winning. Your organisation is a disgrace to democracy.


Your reasons for not polling - drawn out voting period and major change in the race - apply equally to Florida where more than a third of voters cast ballots before Election Day, and where Newt's post-SC surge collapsed during that period. Methinks thou doth protest too much.


Ron Paul 2012!!!!!!

Tom Jensen


That was a pretty darn good prediction!

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