Thoughts on Maine

Maine is the first of the Republican contests we haven't conducted a pre-election poll for.  The main reason for that is the lack of a single voting date. Caucuses have been held in the state over the course of the last week and that makes polling pretty much impossible- some folks have already voted, some haven't, etc. The other reasons we didn't poll it are exceptionally low turnout and the fact that the GOP race has undergone a fundamental shift from the start of Maine's voting period, when Mitt Romney was on the top of the world, and the end where we've now seen Rick Santorum take the lead nationally.

It's generally assumed Mitt Romney will win tomorrow, largely because it's another New England state, but I'm a little skeptical. We did 3 Maine Republican Presidential polls between October of 2010 and October of 2011. Here's what we found:

-Romney doesn't have great favorability numbers with Maine Republicans. He was at 51/37 when we polled in October and 47/31 when we polled in March. Those favorability numbers right around the 50% mark are pretty comparable to what we found for him in Minnesota and Missouri last weekend, where of course he got crushed. Maine GOPers are definitely not in love with Romney.

-Romney never led in any of the 3 Maine Republican polls we conducted. He was 2nd behind Herman Cain in October, 4th behind Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, and Sarah Palin in March, and 2nd behind Sarah Palin in October of 2010. All 3 of those polls made it clear Maine Republicans were looking for a more conservative alternative to Romney. Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum don't appear to have much or any organization in Maine and a lot of Maine's caucuses had already been held before the Santorum surge began though, so I don't know if that desire for an alternative will really end up showing in tomorrow's results.

-All indications are that the main threat to Romney in Maine is Ron Paul. On one hand our last Maine poll found that Paul is not that popular with Maine Republicans- only 34% had a favorable opinion of him to 51% with a negative opinion. But that doesn't mean Paul can't win. For one thing if the 34% who do like Paul voted for him, that could certainly be a large enough percentage of the vote to give him a win. And the other thing is that the folks who like Paul, although they might be a minority of the electorate, are more likely to turn out for a caucus.

I'm not making any predictions for tomorrow- I really have no idea- but our past Maine polling certainly suggests some vulnerability for Romney there.

Comments

[Jake]

If the bulk of voters in Maine voted after Tuesday the 7th, then Romney is likely going to lose tomorrow. Romney better hope the voters of Maine voted before Tuesday showed how weak he is in the midwest because if he loses again he will likely lose the nomination to Santorum.

[packeryman]

The good folks of Main can forget Gingrich, he's history. Ron Paul will probably do good good because of his ground game in Maine. The only candidate that can win the general election is Romney, he can carry Independents where the other two can't. Santorum should pickup the non-Romney/Paul votes, he has the "big mo" after winning the last three states.

[Thomas]

Given all this useful background info: I would be least surprised by Romney 36, Paul 34, Santorum 18, Gingrich 9, Scattered 3. Too bad for Santorum the caucuses are not all being held tomorrow. Smart of you not to poll ME, this contest is impossible to poll or predict.

[JC]

I was wondering if it were possible to poll WA's Republican Caucuses on March 3rd. I haven't heard a single comment or mention of them in the national media. It just seems to be Arizona and Michigan and then Super Tuesday's Ohio and Georgia. We're a Pacific state so I don't see who could have an advantage here. Romeny probably would get the Seattle area but Santorum could easily get Eastern Washington. Ron Paul I could see being strong in the far north around Bellingham and down south near Vancouver. And Newt could be a little of everywhere. So I would just like to see some examination of my state to see how the NW votes. At least offer it up as a choice in the next "which state to poll next" poll.

[joey]

You guys don't want to poll Maine because you know Ron Paul is winning. Your organisation is a disgrace to democracy.

[valleyforge]

Your reasons for not polling - drawn out voting period and major change in the race - apply equally to Florida where more than a third of voters cast ballots before Election Day, and where Newt's post-SC surge collapsed during that period. Methinks thou doth protest too much.

[daniel]

Ron Paul 2012!!!!!!

[Tom Jensen]

Thomas:

That was a pretty darn good prediction!