Santorum moves ahead in Michigan

Rick Santorum's taken a large lead in Michigan's upcoming Republican primary. He's at 39% to 24% for Mitt Romney, 12% for Ron Paul, and 11% for Newt Gingrich.

Santorum's rise is attributable to two major factors: his own personal popularity (a stellar 67/23 favorability) and GOP voters increasingly souring on Gingrich.  Santorum's becoming something closer and closer to a consensus conservative candidate as Gingrich bleeds support.

Santorum's winning an outright majority of the Tea Party vote with 53% to 22% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich. He comes close to one with Evangelicals as well at 48% to 20% for Romney and 12% for Gingrich. And he cracks the 50% line with voters identifying as 'very conservative' at 51% to 20% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich.

Santorum's benefiting from the open nature of Michigan's primary as well. He's only up by 12 points with actual Republican voters, but he has a 40-21 advantage with the Democrats and independents planning to vote that pushes his overall lead up to 15 points. Santorum is winning by a healthy margin in every region of the state except for Oakland County, where Romney has a 40-26 advantage, and the area around Lansing where Paul actually has an advantage at 30% to 27% for both Romney and Santorum.

Republican voters aren't just declining to vote for Gingrich at this point- they don't even like him anymore. Just 38% have a favorable opinion of him to 47% with a negative one. His numbers are inching back closer to what they were before his surge in the polls began in November. His continued presence in the race is a boost to Romney though. 54% of his supporters would go to Santorum if he dropped out, compared to only 21% for Romney and 14% for Paul. Santorum's lead in a Newt-less field would expand to 21 points with him at 48% to 27% for Romney and 13% for Paul. So every day Gingrich stays in is a saving grace for Romney's hopes.

Michigan is perceived as a state where Romney really has a home field advantage, but only 26% of primary voters actually consider him to be a Michigander while 62% do not. Only 39% have a favorable opinion of George Romney with a 46% plurality having no opinion about him.  Romney really doesn't have some great reservoir of goodwill in Michigan to fall back on. Only 49% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 39% with a negative one. That's down a net 28 points from our last poll of Michigan in July when he was at +38 (61/23).

For all that, Santorum probably shouldn't get too comfortable. There is a lot of potential for fluidity in the Michigan race, with only 47% of voters saying they're strongly committed to their candidate while 53% are open to changing their minds in the next two weeks.

Romney's support is a little more firm with 52% of his voters saying they'll definitely end up supporting him compared to 46% who say that for Santorum. This situation is reminiscent of what happened in Florida right after Newt Gingrich's big win in South Carolina- he took the lead then quickly lost it in a big way after coming under attack by Romney. Given how open voters are to changing their minds a repeat of that in Michigan would not be a huge surprise.

Full results here

Comments

[Bill Mitchell]

Wait, Santorum by 15 over Romney in Michigan? I have to call this a very serious outlier. Oh wait, this is PPP. That explains it.

[mjcc1987]

So, what is the relationship of the moderates to the "very conservative" when comparing Santorum and Romney?

Also, as a percentage of the overall population? Can you put this into perspective?

The other states had moderate to significant downward turnout which means the actual voters voting was even less. Percentage means nothing unless there's a solid number behind it. What is that number?

[Micah]

Is Santorum going to advertise in MI, and how much is he or his super PAC willing to spend? Romney camp is definitely going to go on a major negative blitz against him.

A win for Santorum in Michigan could be a real tipping point in the GOP race.
How hungry is Santorum to win Michigan?

[grunthor]

Polls like this make me happy. I like the idea of Romney losing Michigan, the nomination and if he were to somehow GET the nomination, the election. You see my conservative friends, if Obama wins he's only got 4 more years.....if Romney wins it could be potentially 8 more years of THE SAME SHINOLA!

[wren]

Romney is going to go after Santorum like man on dog. Just watch.

[Elliot]

Interesting results. When will your next Obama v. Santorum poll be? I'm interested about Santorum's favourables with the general population, as opposed to with the Republicans specifically. A PPP poll January 16th put his fav/unfav 30-51, but according to TPM polltracker, most other pollsters had him somewhere around 20-25 or 30-35, suggesting more "don't knows", not surprising given his low national stature. What made your poll different, and where do you think he stands now now that he's had more exposure.

Also, how does it relate with Santorum's apparent Indie/Dem crossover appeal in the Michigan primary? Is it possible to tell whether that's those voters generally liking Santorum's pitch towards "Reagan Democrats" or do they dislike Romney, or (especially in the case of crossover Dems) are they perhaps playing Operation Chaos and attempting to scupper the stronger nominee in Romney?

[Nonie]

If Romney can't even win his homestate, he is toast in the general election. He will lose by double digits against obama cause all the ads that will be run in michigan is Mitt Romney's infamous line, "LET DETROIT GO BANKRUPT". All they would have to do is loop that commercial over and over again. The bottom line is this, Romney is dogfood that the dog don't want to eat. hahahah

[Bosman]

I was currious, Why did you skip polling on the 11th when Romney was fressh off his win in CPAC and Maine that evening?

Was there any difference in Santorum's and Romney's support on the 10th compared to the 12th? Why not show that crosstab?

[Paula]

Almost 75% of these voters describe themselves as cOnsetvative OT very conservative.not proportionate. Not even close. Additionally, 50% may change there minds! And this is an open primary so few Dems or Independents. Don't think so. Can only assume this is a democratic poll not wanting Obama to have to run against Romney.

[777denny]

This is very good news for Rick. And if Rick Santorum can beat RINO Romney in Michigan, then why couldn't Rick beat Obama in November? Go Rick!!!

[Michael Bauser]

Got any numbers of Michiganders' approval of George Romney BEFORE the GOP race started? I'm wondering if Mitt's reputation is dragging down his father's popularity!

[Alle]

PPP has SEVERLY COOKED this poll.

48% of the respondents are Evangelical in a state where only 27% of the population is Evangelical.

PPP is a Dirty Democrat polling firm who really got caught COOKING this poll from Michigan.............FACT

[Ssupak]

Now the question for Willard is, how do you attack someone without the obvious weaknesses of Gingrich?

[Winghunter]

With over four LONG years to know Romney's record, there's no sane excuse for a single supporter other than pathetically stone ignorance.

The Romney Scorecard: RINO http://bit.ly/706p7k

Romney's constant smears against Gingrich did take their toll but, Mitt’s Politics of Division Will Backfire http://bit.ly/wd2hTv

Santorum's support will soon fizzle out when everyone learns;

Santorum wants appx. 12 Million murderers/rapists/kidnappers & the like to be able to vote: Felon Voting & The Constitution http://bit.ly/xATsu7

Rick Santorum's "Real Concerns" About The Tea Party http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLQnoVpkyqc&feature=youtu.be

What A Big Government Conservative Looks Like http://bit.ly/xzpdiV

Santorum’s Redistribution of Wealth: A Massively Expanded Welfare State is ‘The Genuine Conservatism our Founders Envisioned’ http://bit.ly/A0FZeg
Santorum: "I often describe my conservative colleagues during this time as simply ‘cheap liberals'."

Rick Santorum’s anti-gun history http://bit.ly/uiyBCe

[Dustin Ingalls]

mjcc1987: All of that demographic info is in the full results.

Bosman: We did poll on the 11th.

"48% of the respondents are Evangelical in a state where only 27% of the population is Evangelical."

1.) I'm not sure where you got the 27% figure, but obviously the proportion of evangelicals is higher in the party with which almost all evangelicals identify. Evangelicals are also particularly active people by the very definition of the label, so they often vote in higher numbers than non-evangelicals. If they're 27% of the overall population, it'd make sense they're almost twice that among active GOP primary voters.

[General Goose]

@Alle: You're ignoring a very simple fact; this poll only includes likely Republican primary voters. Just like some groups like African-Americans are underrepresented in Republican primaries, groups like evangelicals will be drastically overrepresented.

[Jeff]

@Alle That doesn't mean anything, its all about the turn out and the people who are likely to turn out are 48% Evangelical. Get your facts straight before accusing anyone.

[realnrh]

48% of the respondents are Evangelicals in a state where THE POLL WAS TAKEN OF POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN PRIMARY PARTICIPANTS. Evangelicals make up a larger portion of the Republican primary electorate than of the state population in general. Michigan does permit crossover voting, but the rate is low.

[Daniel Pepe]

The TSunami continues!

[Susan]

Even ARG who only sapmled Registered Votes, as compared to this polls Likely Registered has Santorum up by 6 so says ARG. Now Pew also has Santorum up though that is a National Poll. Romney losing by ANY MARGIN would expose that bullcrap electability mind control spell, that Romney needs to cast on us to fool Conservatives that hate liberal candidates into voting for him. Without it, he is exposed as the Abortion loving, Romney Care socialist he is. Now that Santorum continues to show "Severally Strong Strength, in yet another mid Western State this time Michigan, look like Flip Floppers only I can win garbage is going to the dump for good. Good Riddance Team Flip Flopper Romney.

[Todd Dugdale]

Alle wrote:
"48% of the respondents are Evangelical in a state where only 27% of the population is Evangelical."

Wow. Why do Republicans always mix up primary polling with general election polling? You "caught" PPP sampling Republicans in a poll measuring the support of Republicans for the various candidates. What a sleuth!

Elliot:
"What made your poll different, and where do you think he stands now now that he's had more exposure."

It's the difference between Santorum's popularity with primary voters vs. his popularity with the electorate at large.

[Obama 2012]

Operation Chaos in full effect. All Democrats go out and vote for Santorum (if your state has an open primary...)

[Shirley Freeman]

"Santorum's benefiting from the open nature of Michigan's primary as well. He's only up by 12 points with actual Republican voters, but he has a 40-21 advantage with the Democrats and independents planning to vote that pushes his overall lead up to 15 points."

Democrats and Independents voting for him is strong support for Santorum's 'electability' in the General Election.

Santorum is the Right Man with the Best Plan to renew America's promise as the 'Shining City on a Hill' for the 21st Century!

[Rebecca Fine]

PPP is actually one of the most accurate polling companies there is. In a statistical analysis done last year, it ranked ahead of Rasmussen and several other pollsters in terms of accuracy. But in any event, it's not just PPP putting Santorum ahead - ARG has a poll out today which also puts Santorum ahead of Romney in Michigan, although not by as much. Santorum is also leading Romney nationally in Pew today, and almost tied with Romney in Gallup. So it is not just one pollster that is seeing problems for Mitt.

[Bob A]

An ultra left-wing state Michigan likeS Santorum. Does that tell you anything? Santorum is in the pocket of "BIG COMMUNIST LABOR!" Santorum is also soft on illegals. He voted against E-Verify twice while in the Senate.

[Berbs]

Given Santorum's actual record (which is quite different from his current rhetoric) it's not surprising that Democrats and union supporters want to vote for Santorum. It baffles me why Republicans will allow non-Republicans to vote for the Republican nominee. It makes as much sense as, say, allowing non-U.S. citizens to vote in the U.S. general election, which is to say that it makes no sense at all.

[Frank]

Alle, you are misreading the comment about the 48%. What the writer means is that among evangelical voters, Santorum has a 48-20-12 advantage compared to Romney and Gingrich.

[Lauren]

I'm from Michigan. I was once a democrat. Obama... Two Penny Jenny (Granholm) and her democratic congress helped me to see the light. I'm republican now. All grown up. Michigan does not see Romney as the prodigal son. They see him as an elitist who may have been born here: but who high tailed it out to live in a well to do East Coast homestead. We hadn't heard from him again until he was looking for delegates four years ago.
Representations of Michigan as ultra left wing are grossly exaggerated. Santorum is on fire here. Romney gets the stink eye when mentioned. Let him take Oakland county. That's where the last four jobs in Michigan happen to be. Mitt can have it. The rest of the state is fully prepared to make it to the polls. It is what it is.

[ETX williams]

Ricks a great Guy But I Like Newt Better, I could be happy with either. Newt is just tougher,
already has detailed plans, is a much better communicator, and really knows how to get things through Congress, He's already been there and done it. Newt's so Called Negatives are not nearly as bad as Rombo's to me. Independants don't care about Newt's negatives, they are looking for someone that knows what needs to be done, and knows how to get it done.
National Polls mean nothing until we have a candidate. ANYBODY can beat Obama Except maybe RP.

[Phil]

If it is true that in Michigan, liberal democrats, are being encouraged to cross over and vote for Santorum in the republican primary, you might as well throw that result out because it will not be a true reflection of the republican support in MI. These open primaries are just ripe for democrat meddling in an attempt to vote for someone other than the person that is the one they are most afraid to run against, that being Governor Mitt Romney. Shananigans all the time with the democrats. The crossover voting should be prohibited.

[Bill]

I thought that you could only vote for the party you are registered to and it is too late to register for the Feb. 28th primary. Isn't this a closed primary.