Romney's electability argument weakening?

One thing that has remained constant in the ever changing GOP Presidential race is that Mitt Romney is the strongest candidate against Barack Obama...at least until now.  PPP's newest national poll finds Romney trailing Obama by 7 points at 49-42, while Santorum trails by only 5 points at 49-44.

This is a new development in the flavor of the month game. Over the previous 6 months when Romney first trailed Michele Bachmann, then Rick Perry, then Herman Cain, then Newt Gingrich in our national polling he still did on average 6 points better than them in our general election tests. Santorum's the first insurgent to challenge Romney on that front as well:

Month	Romney vs. Obama	Flavor of the Month vs. Obama	Romney Electability Edge
July	Tied	Bachmann -7	+7
August	Tied	Perry -6	+6
September	Romney -4	Perry -11	+7
October	Tied	Cain -6	+6
November	Romney -3	Gingrich -6	+3
December	Romney +2	Gingrich -5	+7

Santorum's net favorability is 21 points better than Romney's. Santorum's at -7 (39/46), while Romney is at -28 (29/57). That's mostly because Republicans like Santorum a lot better (+40 at 62/22 to Romney's +2 at 43/41). But Santorum also does a good deal better with independents, coming in at -6 (40/46) to Romney's -23 (32/55). In the head to heads Obama leads Romney by 9 with independents, but has only a 4 point advantage on Santorum with that group.

Ron Paul has nearly matched Romney on the electability front, trailing Obama by 8 points at 49-41. Paul does the best of the Republican candidates with independents, with only a 1 point deficit to Obama. Newt Gingrich has firmly established himself as the Republican who would be the biggest general election disaster, trailing 52-40 with a 19 point deficit among independents.

Why is Obama doing so well? It has a lot to do with this finding: 41% of voters think the economy's getting better to only 31% who think it's getting worse with 27% thinking that it's staying about the same. This is the first time since Obama took office that we've asked a question in this vein on a national poll and found more voters feeling optimistic than pessimstic about the way things are heading.

We also looked at how a couple third party candidate scenarios. Roseanne Barr, who wants to be the Green Party candidate for President, is one of the most hated figures we've ever polled. Only 14% of Americans have a favorable opinion of her to 63% with a negative one. In spite of that she still gets 6% in the general, and her presence in the race chops Obama's lead over Romney from 7 points to only 5 points at 47-42. Could Roseanne end up costing Obama reelection? That sounds like good cable fodder for the rest of the week. (It's highly unlikely she would really end up getting anywhere close to 6% of the vote.)

Gary Johnson gets 7% as the Libertarian candidate. His presence doesn't have much impact on the Obama/Romney dynamic though- the President still leads by 7 at 47-40.

Full results here

Comments

[Jay]

If I understand PPP correctly, Obama's fortunes are not tied to any one opponent, but rather to the economy at large. I said that the unemployment figures would decide the election and I stand by that statement but right now, we don't know what the direction it will be going into the election. Gallup correctly forecast that the unemployment rate was going to come down to it's present level several months before it actually happened. Right now, Gallup is saying the unemployment rate is about 9% which means within a few months, the rate will be moving back up at a bad time for the President.

[Mark]

Santorum is polling slightly better than Romney against Obama most likely because of the negative attention that Romney brought on himself in the past month. I find it hard to believe that Santorum would end up performing better in the actual election.

[apetra]

Fine, except that Romney hasn't begun to make his general election case to the public.

Meanwhile, Obama for the sixth straight year continues to dominate mainstream media coverage.

[Oscar]

I think the bigger news here is how Ron Paul is surpassing the other candidates! I saw another poll that had him tied vs. Obama.

But seriously, I think it's important to include a great American like Roseanne Barr to give this poll more credibility.

[Ken]

Unless I'm mistaken, it seems that many Gary Johnson supporters would vote for Paul if he were on the GOP ticket, thus swaying Paul quite a bit against an Obama matchup. (Clearly the Gary Johnson supporters aren't going to vote for B.O., N.G., M.R., or R.S. should one of them become the GOP ticket).

[Obama 2012]

I think this is almost entirely because the average non political junkie hasn't had a full taste of Santorum yet.

When they find out more about him and his far right wing social views I think his favorability ratings will drop through the floor (and Obama's advantage will significantly increase.)

But because of the timing of this Santorum surge I think he may be able to pull off winning the GOP nomination ... I think it's going to be difficult for Romney to take him down in the next couple of weeks and if he doesn't do it by Michigan, it may be too late.

[Lompemann]

@Jay Gallup's unemployment numbers aren't seasonally adjusted. You have to compare this month's numbers to last year's numbers. Today it's down 1,2% from 2011 and the trend is still positive.

[Chris Mountain]

Remember when the MSM (not the other candidates) smeared Bachmann, then Cain, and did a hatchet job on Newt? And have you noticed they've barely laid a glove on Romney?

The polls showing Romney doing well against Obama are rigged (misleading). Romney is the prototypical country club wall street corporate rich Republican - and Bain Capital is his achilles heel.

Romney's electability is a myth perpetuated by the crickets you hear from the MSM on Romney. They're leaving him pretty much alone for now.

It's a good idea to study Bain since it's likely to cost us the 2012 election. Romney will get crushed on Bain.

Here's an interview (link below) with a Reagan conservative venture capitalist about Bain. It's easy to understand and a peek preview of what's to come once the MSM has destroyed anyone but Romney for the nomination...and the Obama MSM Destruction Machine sets its sights on Romney.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmrEUHdwAwQ&feature=youtu.be

[Todd Dugdale]

"PPP surveyed 1,200 American voters"

I dislike being the one who always asks this, but are we talking about a sample of *registered* voters?

Nice sample size on this survey.

I noticed in the methodology for the DKos/SEIU surveys, you use live interviewers for IN and ND. Is this also the case in this national poll here?

Thanks, as always, for the free polling results.

[John Acord]

Ron Paul has not ruled out an independent or third party run. The buzz on the web is a run is highly probable if not likely and with poll numbers in the 40's and growing his supporters are increasing demanding he make an announcement shortly after Super Tuesday. PPP should make an early assessment on how this would affect the outcome and whether a third party run by Paul would kill the GOP's opportunity to prevail in November.

[Dustin Ingalls]

"I dislike being the one who always asks this, but are we talking about a sample of *registered* voters?"

Yes. As always, if it's not labeled as "likely" voters, it's registered.

"I noticed in the methodology for the DKos/SEIU surveys, you use live interviewers for IN and ND. Is this also the case in this national poll here?"

No, we do that at their request, and at additional cost to them.

John Acord: We've polled Paul as a third-party candidate nationally a couple times in the recent past, and he does hurt Romney.