Romney up in Colorado, close race in Minnesota

Last night's results in Nevada were bad news for Newt Gingrich and PPP's first day of polling in Colorado and Minnesota indicates things may only get worse for him in the coming days.

In Colorado Mitt Romney looks primed for another big Western win to match his  one in Nevada. He leads with 40% there to 26% for Rick Santorum, 18% for Gingrich, and 12% for Ron Paul.

Minnesota looks like a toss up with any of the four candidates having some shot at winning. Santorum holds a small edge there with 29% to 27% for Romney, 22% for Gingrich, and 19% for Paul.

What both states have in common is that Gingrich has fallen precipitously since our last polls in them. In Colorado Gingrich was in first place with a 19 point lead in early December. His support has declined 19 points since then and his net favorability has dropped 33 points from +41 (64/23) to only +8 (49/41). Gingrich has had a similarly large decline in Minnesota, but there it's much more abrupt.  We polled the state only two weeks ago but in that time he's dropped 14 points from 36% to 22%, and his favorability has 26 points from +34 (59/25) to +8 (47/39). That after glow from South Carolina has worn off real fast.

Tuesday has the potential to be a big day for Rick Santorum. In addition to these two polls, a Missouri survey we conducted last weekend found him with 45% to 34% for Romney and 13% for Paul. Given how quickly things have moved in this race I wouldn't assume Santorum still has that lead, especially given the momentum Romney has after big wins in Florida and Nevada. But nevertheless it looks like Santorum has a decent chance at wins in Minnesota and Missouri, and a second place finish in Colorado. 72 hours from now he may have supplanted Gingrich as the top alternative to Romney.

Santorum's personal likability- perhaps driven by the fact that no one has felt the need to attack him- has a lot to do with why he's doing so well in these states. In Colorado 68% of voters see him favorably to 21% with a negative opinion. That +47 spread is far better than that of the second most popular candidate, Romney, who's at +29 (60/31). It's a similar story in Minnesota. Santorum's favorability is even better there at +54 (72/18), with Romney next best at +11 (50/39).

There were 3 key groups of voters that fueled Gingrich's victory in South Carolina and that continued to be strong for him in Florida, but in both Colorado and Minnesota they have shifted toward Santorum. Santorum is winning Tea Party voters (35-34 over Romney in Colorado, 38-29 over Gingrich in Minnesota), Evangelicals (37-30 over Romney in Colorado, 36-27 over Gingrich in Minnesota), and those describing themselves as 'very conservative' (38-29 over Romney in Colorado, 41-25 over Gingrich in Minnesota). Win those groups and you're always going to have a decent chance in a Republican contest.

Minnesota provides Paul's best chance at a victory since Iowa. Independents are allowed to vote there, which should boost his numbers, and in contrast to most states he has a positive favorability rating at 48-41. A big key for him will be the age of the electorate- he's leading the way with voters under 45, but in last place with voters over 45. He'll need to pick that up to have a chance at the upset.

The state of the race is extremely volatile in both states. 33% of voters in Colorado and 37% in Minnesota say they could change their minds between now and Tuesday, a much higher rate than we've seen willing to shift this late in other states. One big advantage Romney has is that his voters are more committed than those of the other candidates. In Colorado among voters whose minds are completely made up he's at 45% to 25% for Santorum, 18% for Gingrich, and 13% for Paul. And in Minnesota although he's in 2nd place overall, he's first with folks whose votes are locked in at 29% to 25% for Santorum, 24% for Gingrich, and 22% for Paul.  People who know definitively how they're going to vote seem more likely to show up so that bodes quite well for Romney.

Romney looks headed for another easy win in Colorado and could pull one out in Minnesota as well. He has a few key things going for him. He remains extremely formidable with seniors, leading Santorum 43-23 with them in Colorado and 42-28 with them in Minnesota. And although he continues to struggle with the furthest right segment of Republican voters he's now firmly established himself as the candidate of choice for those describing themselves as 'somewhat conservative.' He leads Santorum 51-19 with those folks in Colorado and Gingrich 34-23 with then in Minnesota.

Tuesday has the potential to be a huge day for both Romney and Santorum. A sweep for Romney would do much to enhance the feeling that he's unstoppable. Wins for Santorum in Minnesota and Missouri would make it clear he's a more viable alternative to Romney than Gingrich and give him a lot of momentum for the road ahead. And it looks like it will be another dark day for Gingrich, whose campaign it appears peaked two weeks ago in South Carolina.

Full results here

Comments

[Obama 2012]

I'm amazed that these GOP voters are going back to Santorum again.

I just love watching this whole thing play out; the Republicans are clearly in the process of nominating a guy (Mitt Romney) who is the very definition of underwhelming. That he is having so much trouble beating absolutely ridiculous candidates (neither Gingrich or Santorum could ever be President in a 1000 years) is more than telling.

[fDavid]

Co will go for Mitt

[BobAkimbo]

Oops...

"One big advantage Romney has is that his voters are more committed than those of the other candidates."

"Unfortunately for Romney, he comes in last of the 4 candidates among voters who are strongly committed to their candidate."

[David]

Mitt will win both states

[Sean]

If Romney was down 2 in Minnesota before Nevada what are the odds he is now ahead thanks to another bump from winning another state?

[Mark Eberle (@patcnewsnet)]

A few days back I wrote that Rick Santorum is hanging on by a thread. I still believe Santorum is barely surviving, but I also believe this cycle has shown us that a three day period is long enough to turn the primary election upside
down. Santorum isn’t completely out, but he needs some big hitters to come out swinging for him in order to gain some momentum and stay in this thing.
That may start if Michelle Malkin’s endorsement becomes a trend.

Rick Santorum opposed TARP.
He didn’t cave when Chicken Littles in Washington invoked a manufactured crisis in 2008. He didn’t follow the pro-bailout GOP crowd — including Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich — and he didn’t have to obfuscate or
rationalize his position then or now, like Rick Perry and Herman Cain did. He also opposed the auto bailout, Freddie and Fannie bailout, and porkulus bills.
Santorum opposed individual health care mandates — clearly and forcefully — as far back as his 1994 U.S. Senate run. He has launched the most cogent, forceful fusillade against both Romney and Gingrich for their
muddied, pro-individual health care mandate waters.
He voted against cap and trade in 2003, voted yes to drilling in ANWR, and unlike Romney and Gingrich, Santorum has never dabbled with eco-radicals like John Holdren, Al Gore and Nancy Pelosi. He hasn’t written
any “Contracts with the Earth.”
Santorum is strong on border security, national security, and defense. Mitt the Flip-Flopper and Open Borders-Pandering Newt have been far less trustworthy on immigration enforcement.

http://www.patcnews.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=72&Itemid=252

[Disaster for the libertarian wing of the GOP]

This is a disaster for the Paul forces. Santorum is the complete opposite of Ron Paul as he wants to keep the GOP free of libertarian influence (for instance he wants more govt regulation of bedrooms of heterosexuals).

Ron Paul is supposed to be the one Romney has to pacify at the convention, not Santorum. If Romney finds he has to promise evangelicals Supreme Court justice picks or anything else that promotes the social conservative agenda, the youth of the Republican Party will not vote in November or they will vote for Gary Johnson (LP).

Effectively, if Santorum ends up having more influence on the GOP ticket than Paul, Obama will definitely get reelected.

I just hope that the main problem has been that Ron Paul's foreign policy views are seen as extreme/unwise, not that social conservatism still has much life left in its domination of the GOP.

[OleCodger]

Does not appear to me that the Minnesota folks care much for the working people to choose Santorum; a corporate pimp who has access to a Wal-Mart corporate jet. Santorum has also accepted huge contributions from large franchises since he shares their passion to keep worker's wages low and overtime at a very minimum. And let's not discuss Santorum's "dalliances" with a woman not his wife.

[Dagny]

Here we go again. Please, these polls are rigged by the GOP and the MSM that favors their globalist new world order candidates. The GOP is worse than ACORN. Romney will win even if no one votes for him. Romney, Newt and Santorum are anti-constitution. Just look at their liberal voting records. Either Americans have undergone a brain transplant or they are suffering from amnesia if they buy this crap. Perception is everything, and these puppet pollsters lie for their puppet masters. Unfortunately, this crap works. The uninformed buy into this nonsense because they do not know any better. Nothing much will ever change unless folks wake up soon. It may be too late already!

[Rhonda]

Go ahead and keep electing rich politicians and see what you get for President! Mitt is going to be all about taking care of the RICH in this country. Exactly what we need to go bankrupt! We really could use a politician that in the least, has a moral value and a concious about him! Keep electing those with big money to put out the ads that you want to hear, telling you false information on the good people who are trying to sincerely help our country. Santorum is in no way deceptive, he is a man of honor, of his word, and I pray God puts him in office! And some of these folks start eating their words! And Paul is anti-government, just what the other nations need, someone who looks the other way, doesn't care, so they can stab us in the back. A retired gynecologist can't possibly run this country, get real! And for the pot lovers, who think electing Paul will help legalize it, come on, he said he would leave it up to the States! Yeah that is going to work! People hear one thing they like and jump on the dumb wagon! They did the last election too, any man that will turn on his own Pastor of 20 years, is not deceptive huh!

[realnrh]

Wow, that was some vintage conspiracy theory right there. Hope you're all stocked up on beans for when the Mayan calendar runs out and the Men in Black use their stolen alien technology from Area 51 to mind-control everyone via the fluoride in the drinking water!

[Obama 2012]

Dagny - not everything is a conspiracy. The truth is; most people don't think like you do.

[Hello Again]

After reading these posts I have come to the conclusion the paranoia is more widespread that I had thought.

[Charleston Voice]

Romney’s Advisors Are Leftist Elites
http://chasvoice.blogspot.com/2011/10/romneys-advisors-are-leftist-elites.html

[Vanka]

Not only does Mormon theology, scripture, and revelation contain prophecies, predictions, and "commandments" for the Mormon Church to "roll forth" like a stone, cut from the mountain without hands, to "consume the whole earth", but Mitt Romney and his wife have made some disturbing secret oaths in Mormon temples:

In the Mormon temple "Initiatory", Mitt and his wife have been "anointed to become Kings and Queens, Priests and Priestesses unto the most high God, to rule and reign in the House of Israel forever".

When they first went through the Mormon temple "Endowment", Mitt and his wife not only re-enacted ceremonies and motions of "penalties" such as slashing their own throats and disemboweling themselves, if they should fail to keep secret the oaths they made, but they also made oaths such as:

The Law of Obedience, where the women are placed under covenant to obey their husbands. Sexism anyone?

Perhaps Gingrich could have kept a marriage together if he had an oath-based, patriarchal tyranny over his wife, too!

The Law of Sacrifice:

"And as Jesus Christ has laid down his life for the redemption of mankind, so we should covenant to sacrifice all that we possess, even our own lives if necessary, in sustaining and defending the Kingdom of God [the Mormon Church]."

Do we really want a POTUS who will die for the Mormon Church? And who will sacrifice all he possesses for the Mormon Church? I don't think so. The POTUS must have no higher priority and commitment than the United States of America!

The Law of Consecration:

"...you do consecrate yourselves, your time, talents, and everything with which the Lord has blessed you, or with which he may bless you, to the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, for the building up of the Kingdom of God on the earth and for the establishment of Zion."

The POTUS must NOT use the position to build up the Mormon Church! But Mitt has covenanted to do just that!

Our nation cannot be sovereign if our President is not sovereign!

Bringing and end to all nations, including the United States? World domination? Mitt's secret covenants that are anti-American and express fanatic loyalty, with death oaths, to an organization above the supposedly sovereign United States of America and its Constitution?

If it looks like a cult, and Quacks like a cult, It is a cult!

[tbert]

And "Dagny" showing up, tooting the hardcore libertarian horn of "if I can't succeed, it's because other people suck", with just enough of a hint of conspiracy theory to raise a public "lol".

[DEAN BERRY MINISTRIES]

BARRICK GOLD ELKO, NEVADA, IS AIDING AND ABETTING TERRORISM. Why has Elko, Nevada completely dumped its loyalty to America? In patronizing Barrick Gold you’re enriching Adnan Khashoggi who was involved in the Iran/Contra affair and who is a major supporter of Al Qaida?*

Elko rednecks scream the loudest about avenging 9/11 yet prostrate yourselves to its main financier. Do you feel no shame? I’m calling for you all to be rounded up under the Detainee Security Act (that Dean Heller voted for) for aiding and abetting terrorism.

At the very least, why hasn't Barrick been confiscated by the U.S. government for complicity in terrorism?

http://tinyurl.com/BarrickGoldNevadaFinanced911

* Oh, G Wimp Bush, by the way, is on the board of Barrick. Do you see how inbred both the "left" and the "right" are? How much they actually have in common.