Romney up big in Nevada

Mitt Romney is headed for a dominant victory in Nevada on Saturday.  PPP finds him polling at 50% to 25% for Newt Gingrich, 15% for Ron Paul, and 8% for Rick Santorum.

Certainly in Nevada the Mormon vote will get a lot of attention and Romney leads Paul 78-14 with that group, which we project to account for 20% of the vote. But Romney's dominance in Nevada goes well beyond that. He's winning voters describing as 'very conservative,' a group he's had huge amount of trouble with in other states, by a 43-34 margin over Gingrich. He's also winning men, women, Hispanics, whites, and every age group that we track. This will be a pretty thorough victory for him.

The bad news for Gingrich isn't just that's headed for a distant second place finish. Nevada Republicans actively dislike him, with only 41% holding a favorable opinion of him to 49% with a negative one. That's an indication that GOP voters might be starting to sour on him again, sending his numbers back to pre-South Carolina levels.

Santorum has great favorability numbers, with 64% of voters seeing him positively to only 23% with a negative opinion. That was the case in Florida as well, but it's just not translating into much support for him. He's the most frequent 2nd choice candidate in Nevada with 30% picking him on that question and no one else above 16%.  That's more evidence that in a less crowded field he might be able to get some more traction. But for now it's just not happening.

It looks like Paul will be able to build on his 14% showing in Nevada in 2008, but catching up to Gingrich for 2nd place appears unlikely. His key will be turning out young voters at a higher rate than we're projecting. With voters under 45 he leads Gingrich by a 23-20 margin. But with older ones he lags behind Newt 29-11.

Romney hits the 70% favorability mark in Nevada, something we've seen for him in very few states. Just 25% see him unfavorably. That's partially due to an 89/8 standing with Mormons, but he's at a still very strong 64/30 with non-Mormons as well. One thing that's contributing to Romney's strength in Nevada is a strong advantage on the electability question. 56% think he would be the strongest candidate against Barack Obama this fall with no one else topping 21%.

It looks like the main suspense in Nevada Saturday will be whether Romney can crack that 50% mark.  PPP's next Republican polls will be in Minnesota and Colorado.

Full results here

Comments

[Dave]

You heard it here: Paul will beat Newt.

What was Paul's RCP average in 2008, before he finished with 14%? 7.3%.

[Bazinga !]

Don't you think it's about time for an Indiana poll ?

I know you can only poll the state when you introduce your calls with a human interviewer, but I think now it would be the time for you to invest some of your resources and poll the state.

I have not seen any poll from Indiana in the past 3 years !!!

You should poll it now, ahead of the primary and ahead of the general election.

What do you think ?

[claire]

I have a feeling that Paul will be 2nd though

[Dan Bear]

I would love to see a Virginia poll with just Romney vs Paul

[John Doe]

This is just another Poll that is trying to tell u who will win whithout any true evidence. With the amount of undecided voters and also the amount of young voters unacounted for. Ron Paul should be in 2nd by a huge Margin. This Poll is just like the Main stream media.

Together they are one of the same.

[pauliu]

Nevada billionaire casino’s owner Sheldon Adelson, contributed $5,000,000 to the Super Pac for Gingrich because Gingrich promised him in 1995 that he would move the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem which was what Adelson was then trying to lobby for. How easily our politicians can be bought, except for Ron Paul of course! Stop destroying America, vote for Ron Paul

[Pam Badger]

the ONLY difference between Ovmit and Paul is the color of their skin ..Romney is paying people

[David]

What a big win for Mitt

[realnrh]

If you want to see an Indiana poll, pony up for it (or, heck, make a Kickstarter project to pay for one as a group). Don't just demand one.

[realnrh]

Currently there's 71% reporting, and it's Romney 47.6, Gingrich 22.7, Paul 18.6, and Santorum 11.1. Got it to about three percent on all three calls. Good job on a very difficult race to poll!

[David]

Mitt will best Obama in Nevada.

[realnrh]

Romney hasn't got a prayer in Nevada. In the general election, Mormons won't make up anywhere near 25% of the electorate and Latinos will make up a great deal more than 5%. Romney projected 70k Republican caucus attendees and couldn't get even 33k to actually show up, on a day when his race was the only game in town.

[Dean Berry Ministries]

I'm contacting every Nevada assemblymen and state senator to give us back our WRITE-IN BALLOT by November so we can write in RON PAUL as President. YOU NEED TO DO THE SAME IN YOUR STATE. It's only right. Paul's the only candidate who will save America. A vote for Obama, Romney, Santorum, or Gingrich is a vote for the continued communization of this ONCE-FREE country. All four of these demons belong to the Council On Foreign Relations, America's shadow government. Visit The John Birch Society - the barometer of what's really Conservative (neocons aren't) - to learn more about the quasi-communistic CFR: http://jbs.org/. The CFR is an organization dedicated to bringing America under the control of the United Nations. But they have to eliminate our Constitution first. Which they've already done in part by ramming through the Detainee Security Act (NDAA) which effectively scrapped the Bill Of Rights, THAT PART OF THE CONSTITUTION THAT MADE AMERICA A FREE COUNTRY. Research it if you don't believe me. REAL CHRISTIANS AND REAL AMERICAN CONSERVATIVES WANT ONLY RON PAUL AS AMERICA'S NEXT PRESIDENT.

DEAN BERRY MINISTRIES: "When a government outlaws 'terrorism', they're planning something for which 'terrorism' is the only recourse. Obviously."