Romney lead small in Arizona

The Republican race for President in Arizona looks like a close one, with Mitt Romney leading Rick Santorum only 36-33. Newt Gingrich is third at 16% and Ron Paul fourth at 9%.

Santorum is better liked by Arizona Republicans than Romney, but the gap isn't as wide as we're finding in a lot of other states. Santorum's at +34 (61/27), while Romney's at +24 (58/34).

One thing to keep an eye on over the next week is whether Newt Gingrich can hold his support. 16% is pretty good for him compared to what we're finding other places right now, but only 46% of his voters say they're solidly committed to him. 40% of his supporters say that Santorum is their second choice, compared to only 25% for Romney. If Gingrich's supporters see he's not viable and decide to jump ship the race could get even closer.

Santorum and Romney are both generally winning the same groups we find them winning in Michigan and nationally right now. The reason Romney's leading in Arizona but trailing in those other places is that he's at least staying competitive with the groups he tends to be weaker with. For instance he's only down by 11 points with Tea Party voters, 43-32. He's only down 13 with those describing themselves as 'very conservative,' 44-31. And he's down just 18 with Evangelicals, 45-27. Those are all groups he's losing by more than 25 points in Michigan right now.

Romney's up by good sized margins in Arizona with seniors (41-32), Hispanics (41-30), women (39-31), 'somewhat conservative' voters (43-29), and moderates (39-22).  It's kind of a given at this point that Romney will take moderates and Santorum 'very conservative' voters. The 'somewhat conservative' ones are really the swing voters of the GOP electorate and they're leaning towards Romney in both Arizona and Michigan right now.

John McCain's endorsement isn't doing Romney a whole lot of good in Arizona. Only 15% of voters say they're more likely to vote for a McCain endorsed candidate, compared to 30% who consider it a negative, and 53% who say it doesn't make a difference either way.

There are two endorsements that could have a bigger impact in the final week of the campaign. 32% of voters would be more likely to support a Joe Arpaio endorsed candidate, compared to 24% who would be less likely to. And 25% would be more likely to support a Jan Brewer endorsed candidate, compared to 21% who would be less likely to. If Romney or Santorum could nab either of those endorsements it would be a boost.

Like in Michigan this is still an extremely volatile race, with 44% of voters open to changing their minds between now and the election. GOP voters if anything are becoming even more indecisive as this contest wears on. Romney's supporters are a little more committed with 60% saying they'll definitely vote for him compared to 56% of Santorum's voters who say that.

The Republican Senate race in Arizona doesn't look like it will be much of a race. Jeff Flake's at 56% to 7% for Wil Cardon, 5% for Bryan Hackbarth, 1% each for Douglas McKee and Clair Van Steenwyk, and 0% for John Lyon.

Full results here

Comments

[MSREDMAMA1]

YOUR FULL OF BOLOGNA , again Iam telling you here in arizona half of us sent in our ballets , and voted for NEWT you cann't say that Robama , and santini are up ahead , and get it through your writing fingers AGAIN NEWT WILL NOT BOW OUT HE IS STAYING NO MATTER WHAT THE POLLINGS ARE SAYING , please stop with the crap , we would not go with romney nor santorum nor paul.,,, understand ,, but you not care , you go with what the media tells you , and those numbers are inflated to make others look good , so stop

[Ssupak]

FWIW:

http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=Romney%2CSantorum%2CGingrich&geo=US-AZ&date=2%2F2012%201m&cmpt=q

[Joe M]

"32% of voters would be more likely to support a Joe Arpaio endorsed candidate..."

I weep for Arizona.

[Don Northup]

Looks like more great numbers coming in for Mr. Santorum. The We Pick Rick people are speaking louder-and-louder state-after-state. Rick has taken the lead in basically all of the upcoming swing states, rightfully so, and it looks like he is making serious inroads with Arizona voters as well. Rick speaks from the heart and that's what this country need as a leader...the teleprompter presidency is almost over and Mr. Santorum is just the man to end it.

http://santorumsupporters.com

[wesley]

this makes me ashamed to be an Arizonian

[JPD321]

I don’t think that Flake has it; he is too much like his mentor McCain, a fish out of water flopping all over the place, the people of Arizona are not going to agree with his record. http://patriothq.com/2012/02/11/congressman-jeff-flake-immigrates-to-comprehensive-economic-sanctions-against-iran

As for Cardon, feel sorry for the young man who is trying to do something without his dad’s hand on it – say Agenda21 folks, besides Cardon is becoming transparent with his softball jabs at Flake, the kind that have no merit except for blind followers. Like I said Wil Cardon strawman for Jeff Flake or is that fall-man? http://phoenixteaparty.ning.com/profiles/blogs/wil-cardon-strawman-for-jeff-flake

http://patriothq.com/2012/01/23/az-senate-race-urban-land-institute-wil-cardons-smart-growth-committee-agenda-21-front-part-1

[JPD321]

As for Nuke, too funny, the only way he will get in is if RON PAUL gives him all of his delegates, you know all the ones the whatever you call them won’t admit Paul has. Remember Nuke after Florida – what did he say – time to change gears and campaign for delegates rather than states????? SMART as smart as not qualifying to get on the ballot in five states. REAL SMART, oh I forgot the only way Nuke is getting in is to buy Paul’s delegates by putting Paul on as VP to get his votes – politics at its best!!!! http://patriothq.com/

ANYONE BUT uBAMA