The paltry turnout in the Republican Presidential contests over the last week reflects what we've seen in our recent national polling: Democrats are now more excited about voting this fall than Republicans are, reversing the enthusiasm gap that plagued the party in 2010.
Our last national survey for Daily Kos found that 58% of Democrats were 'very excited' about voting this fall, compared to 54% of Republicans. Six months ago the figures were 48% of Democrats 'very excited' and Republicans at the same 54%. Generally you would expect voters to get more excited as the election gets nearer. That trend is occurring on the Democratic side, but not for the GOP.
Going deeper inside the numbers:
-25% of conservatives are not at all excited to vote this fall, compared to only 16% of liberals.
-The percentage of Tea Party voters 'very excited' about voting in November has declined from 73% to 62% since late July.
-The single group of voters most enthused about turning this year are African Americans, 72% of whom say they're 'very excited' to cast their ballots.
Obviously all this could change once Republicans are settled on a nominee. But for now Barack Obama's prospects in both our state and national polling are looking the best they have in quite a long time.
Even Republican strategists are already admitting that nobody is going to show up in November because of enthusiasm for R-money, the lizard, or the frothy mixture. Anyone claiming to be an enthusiastic Republican voter might as well be admitting "I have no positive feelings in my life, I just want to vote against the guy I've been trained to hate."
Posted by: realnrh | February 08, 2012 at 02:19 AM
Considering the fact that your primary polls have been wildly inaccurate I am not sure why anyone would beleive what you claim to have found now. When you start missing by 15 to 20 points and pick the wrong winner you reinforce most peoples opinion that you are a propoganda poll for a left wing website and not a serious pollster.
Posted by: robtr | February 08, 2012 at 11:36 AM
This is really easy to figure out. Republicans might be staying home from the the primaries cause they are less then thrilled at their choice. But once November comes the choice becomes "whoever it is" or Obama. And they will come out in force to make sure it is not Obama.
Posted by: seawing | February 08, 2012 at 11:46 AM
The fact that I am not "excited" about voting has nothing to do with the cold, unrelenting fact that I WILL vote to put Obama out to pasture.
Pardon me for not being giddy. This task is akin to cleaning the stables.
A necessity for health and well-being.
Posted by: Anon 150 | February 08, 2012 at 12:37 PM
Your results don't surprise me since you oversample Democrat respondents. Also, this is a stupid time to be polling on enthusiasm when the Republican primaries are still going on. How about repoll once a nominee is selected and next time use a more accurate D/R/I sampling.
Posted by: Maddog | February 08, 2012 at 12:47 PM
Obama, due to his hyper liberal policies, has attracted a vast new swath of people into politics on the conservative side. These people, however, are proving to be amateurs when figuring out what "winning" in politics means. They just want to show up to one or two elections, cast their ballot, and fix everything all at once. Nice thoughts, but a total joke in reality. Obama and left have been at war with America and its Constitution for about a hundred years. They have armies of people working against you every hour of every day through ACORN type organizations that YOU pay for, public employee unions, and labor unions. You better check your personal feelings at the door, stop being so hyper sensitive when "your" candidate isn't the nominee. If you don't wake up, and enthusiastically vote for whoever is on the other side of the ballot, you can look forward to the pleasures of Obamacare for the rest of your life, four more years of illegal Executive Orders, four more years of a racist Justice Department, debt so high it won't even matter any more, and that time bomb of new taxes set to go off in 2013 after the election. And, you'll have to deal with the outside chance that the world's biggest narcissist decides sometime in 2015 or so that he'd rather be President for life and that 2012 was actually the last US Presidential election.
Posted by: Frederick | February 08, 2012 at 12:57 PM
We are silent for a purpose but our votes will speak volumes in November.
Posted by: mixplix | February 08, 2012 at 12:59 PM
This trend is probably true. The reason of course is spun. Romney is not backed by non-Mormon conservative voters. The Santorum rise will reinvigorate the Tea Party and probably end Romney's quest. Conservatives have the broadest national appeal. They are the largest voting block bar none. The "moderates" get swept along with the hottest trend. That's what "moderate" really means, sheeple, band wagoners.
Posted by: RCL | February 08, 2012 at 01:00 PM
robtr - like how PPP wildly inaccurately predicted that Santorum was picking up steam in Colorado and right before polls opened that he could possibly win?
Oh wait, HE DID WIN!
PPP aint perfect, but they're better than you give them credit for.
Posted by: RRA | February 08, 2012 at 01:02 PM
The thing that they don't tell you is that democrats are excited about voting the toad currently in office out of office. There has been about a 5% change in voter change from democrat to independent or republican.
Posted by: billc | February 08, 2012 at 01:24 PM
Interestingly, I'm starting to see a surprising amount of resignation on the GOP side. It appears in some of the forums where only Righties post. An increasing number of folks on the Right are saying they believe Obama will be reelected. Oh, they put a brave face on when they think anyone else is looking, but I think they realize that Obama's popularity or lack thereof is tied to the economy, and not any of the 'Kenyan Muslim Communist' nonsense they've tried to peddle.
Posted by: GeneJockey | February 08, 2012 at 03:31 PM
I wish I lived in the same imaginary country Frederick lived in where there was a president in office with "hyper liberal policies." The president in the country I live in is a moderate at best. Just because he doesn't hate homosexuals and believes women should be able to access contraceptives on demand doesn't mean he's a hyper liberal.
Posted by: George Marasco | February 08, 2012 at 04:12 PM
Wow Frederick that is some deep Dark Chocolate Paranoia crazy. President for life? How would he one, pull it off, and two, has he even intimated such a power grab is in his thought process?
Posted by: Todd | February 08, 2012 at 04:24 PM
Todd, it's called projection. They expect the Left to do what they would do.
Posted by: GeneJockey | February 08, 2012 at 09:03 PM
Projection? Mirroring, more like it. I remember many lefties saying the same thing about the "Bush Regime" back in the day... Was it projection then?
Posted by: Eric E. Coe | February 09, 2012 at 07:46 AM
The libtards are going to get creamed this year. Their base has NO energy, whereas the Republicans are so eager to be rid of Barney, they don't care who they nominate! haha
Posted by: Johna Jam | April 08, 2012 at 01:36 AM