Public Policy Polling

Cantwell in good shape for Senate re-election

Raleigh, N.C. – Senator Maria Cantwell leads her real and potential Republican challengers by double digits, a new poll by Public Policy Polling finds. Cantwell leads State Senator Michael Baumgartner, her only announced challenger, 51%-36%, with 15% undecided. She leads Seattle Port Commissioner Bill Bryant 50%-36%, and she leads perennial loser Dino Rossi 53%-41%.

Cantwell benefits from the extreme lack of name recognition among Baumgartner and Bryant. Just 8% of voters have a favorable opinion of Michael Baumgartner, with 14% unfavorable and a whopping 78% not sure. Bill Bryant is in a similar position, with just a 5% favorable rating, 10% unfavorable and 85% unsure. Dino Rossi naturally has higher name recognition, but voters just don’t like him – 50% view him unfavorably compared to 38% who view him favorably.

Cantwell safe for reelection

Republicans have a lot of Democratic incumbents this year who are pretty good targets, but it doesn't look like Maria Cantwell will be one of them. She has solid approval numbers and weak opposition, and as a result leads all of her potential foes by double digits at this point.

47% of Washington voters approve of the job Cantwell's doing to 38% who disapprove. To put those numbers into some context, our first Washington Senate poll of 2010 found Patty Murray with a 46/45 approval spread. So Cantwell's net approval is 8 points better and Murray of course went on to be reelected by 5 points in what was an otherwise dreadful election year for Democrats.

Cantwell is at 81/10 with Democrats and has a decent amount of crossover popularity with Republicans, 17% of whom approve of her to 65% who disapprove. That support from the GOP helps make up for the fact that she's at 40/43 with independents.

Cantwell leads Michael Baumgartner 51-36 and Bill Bryant 50-36 in hypothetical head to heads. She wins over 90% of the Democratic vote against both of them and takes independents by 9-11 points. She also gets double digit support from Republicans- 10-11%.

Arizona voters split on Jan Brewer’s job performance

Raleigh, N.C. – Arizona voters are divided on whether they approve of Governor Jan Brewer’s job performance, a new poll from Public Policy Polling finds. 46% of voters approve of the Governor’s job performance while 47% disapprove. Democrats strongly  disapprove (15/84), Republicans strongly approve (75/18), and a majority of independent voters disapprove (35/54). Most voters would oppose a recall of Governor Brewer, with just 35% supporting such an idea and 58% opposed.

“Voters generally aren’t thrilled with Jan Brewer’s job performance, but they don’t dislike her enough to recall her,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

Arizona Odds and Ends

-Arizona voters are pretty evenly divided in their feelings about Governor Jan Brewer. 46% approve of her to 47% who disapprove.  Her numbers are up a little bit from November when she was at 42/49. The effort to recall her is a non starter. Only 35% support removing her from office while 58% are opposed. There are a decent number of voters who don't like her but don't favor a recall either.

-John McCain remains unpopular but actually has his best approval numbers in our polling since September of 2009. 41% of voters approve of the job he's doing while 48% disapprove, up from a 34/55 spread in November. He's seen a little bit of improvement with both Democrats and Republicans but the biggest gain is with independents, who he's gone from 23/66 to 37/51 with.

-Jon Kyl's seen his numbers improve over the last few months as well. His approval rating is now back on positive ground at 48/40, after being 41/44 in November. Voters may be softening towards him as he heads for the exits.

-62% of Arizonans have a favorable opinion of Gabrielle Giffords shortly after her retirement from the House to only 16% with a negative one. She is easily the state's most popular politician. Her popularity carries across party lines- she's at 88/6 with Democrats, 62/13 with independents, and 43/25 with Republicans.

Obama has comfortable leads in Washington state

Raleigh, N.C. – Mitt Romney’s fortunes have really been sinking in PPP’s look ahead to the fall campaign, to the point where he routinely now performs worse against President Obama than the surging Rick Santorum does.  Indeed, in Washington state, Romney not only trails Santorum with general election voters, but also Ron Paul.

Romney trails Obama by 15 points (53-38).  That is two points better than McCain did in 2008, but one point worse than poll respondents’ self-reported 2008 vote, and a full three points worse than Santorum, who trails by only 12 points (52-40), and two points worse than Paul, who lags by 13 (51-38).  Only Gingrich would be a worse nominee at this point; he would get blown out by 20 points (55-35).

Obama up big in Washington

PPP's newest Washington numbers find Barack Obama with an approval rating over 50% in the state and double digit leads over all of his potential Republican opponents. 51% of voters think he's doing a good job to 45% who give him poor marks. He's on positive ground largely because there are twice as many Republicans (12%) who approve of him as there are Democrats (6%) who disapprove.

What might be most interesting about the Washington numbers is how Mitt Romney stacks up against Obama compared to the other Republican candidates. Long perceived as the most electable GOP hopeful, Romney fares only the third best in Washington with both Rick Santorum and Ron Paul coming a few points closer to Obama.

Santorum's the strongest of the Republican candidates, trailing Obama 52-40. Paul does next best with a 51-38 deficit. As we frequently find to be the case he does the best of the GOP hopefuls with independents, trailing Obama by only 2 at 43-41. Romney trails by 15 at 53-38, and the weakest of the Republicans is Newt Gingrich who's down 20 at 55-35.

Will debate reveal a new Romney? CNN
Poll: Is Romney's electability argument fading? Wall Street Journal
Americans love to hate California -- poll Reuters
Hawaii has 'favorite state' status UPI
Rick Santorum: The GOP's unelectable soul mate U.S. News & World Report
Romney rallies supporters in Chandler, Arizona C-SPAN
What? Texas unpopular? Say it ain't so Houston Chronicle
Poll: Obama moves to sizeable lead Seattle Post-Intelligencer
Strickland to be co-chair of Obama's re-election campaign Cleveland Plain Dealer
Strickland co-chairing Obama campaign in Ohio Cincinnati Enquirer
N.J. among most unfavorable states in nation, poll shows Newark Star-Ledger
Poll: Obama catches GOP field in Arizona The Hill
Fight over birth-control mandate becomes battle to frame debate The Hill
Poll finds Inslee & McKenna tied Seattle Times
Both sides gear up in N.C. gay marriage fight Religion News Service
Hoekstra tanks in polls after China Super Bowl ad Huffington Post
Even with 'Jersey Shore,' N.J. gets higher marks than Gingrich in national poll NewJerseyNewsroom.com
People like us, they really like us! Helena Independent Record
Inslee draws even with McKenna in new poll Everett (WA) Herald
Brewer watching for one to 'shine' in GOP debate East Valley (AZ) Tribune
Great Lakes Bay Republicans and Tea Party vote divided Saginaw News
Close in latest poll, Santorum pitches candidacy to Arizonans Cronkite News Service
Poll: Obama deadlocked with Santorum, Romney in Arizona Phoenix Business Journal
Poll shows Hawaii is America's favorite state Pacific Business News
Poll finds weak support for Vincent Orange in re-election bid DCist
California most disliked state: says new poll KMPH 26

Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin Question Suggestions

This weekend we'll obviously do a final round of polling in Arizona and Michigan. It will be a Sunday-Monday tracker. Expect Michigan results between 10 and 11 eastern, and Arizona results between Midnight and 1 AM eastern each of those nights.

If you have any question suggestions beyond the obvious stuff for those polls, please send them our way. We'll definitely do an early vote breakdown for Arizona this time and regret not having done it last week.

In Wisconsin we'll look look at the Senate, Presidential, and most importantly Gubernatorial races. That's where we really need your help- what Democrats should we look at to test against Scott Walker? And any other questions you think we should ask in Wisconsin beyond the obvious horse race stuff we'd greatly appreciate.

Thanks as always!

MLB and NFL teams are Michigan’s favorite pro teams

Raleigh, N.C. – Michigan voters list Major League Baseball’s Detroit Tigers and the NFL’s Detroit Lions as their two most favorite pro sports teams in Michigan, a new Public Policy Polling survey surrounding various pro and college sports topics finds. When asked which is their favorite pro sports team, 29% of voters said the Detroit Tigers, 27% said the Lions, 20% choose the NHL’s Red Wings, and just 6% said the NBA’s Pistons were their favorite pro team. 17% said someone else was their favorite or they weren’t sure.

African-American voters preferred the Detroit Lions (54%) and Detroit Pistons (23%) for a total of 77% of African-American voters choosing Michigan’s pro football or basketball team as their favorite.  Conversely, while many white voters also chose the Lions (24%), a majority of 55%  of white voters chose MLB’s Tigers (33%) or the NHL’s Red Wings (22%).

Michigan Sports Poll

-By a narrow margin Michigan voters say the Tigers are their favorite professional sports team in the state. They get 29% to 27% for the Lions, 20% for the Red Wings, and just 6% for the currently moribund Pistons.

There's a significant racial divide in who voters pick as their favorite teams. Among white voters the Tigers win easily with 33% to 24% for the Lions, 22% for the Red Wings, and just 3% for the Pistons. But among black voters the Tigers take up the basement at 5%, trailing the Lions at 54%, Pistons at 23%, and even the Red Wings at 8%. That's just another sign that baseball has a lot of work to do to garner interest from African Americans.

This is tied in with the racial divide but Republicans pick the Tigers over the Lions 36-27, while Democrats pick the Lions over the Tigers 32-24.

-37% of voters in the state say they're Michigan fans to 31% who side with Michigan State and 32% who don't care either way. There is somewhat of an ideological divide on this question. 'Very liberal' Michiganders pick the Wolverines 55-26, while 'very conservative' ones pick the Spartans 37-30. White voters are pretty evenly split, going for Michigan 34-32, but 53-22 support from black voters pushes the Maize and Blue's lead out to 6 points.