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February 01, 2012

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Tom Johnson

One of the problems Republicans have is that they are getting unrealistically high percentages of the black vote in this and other polls. For example, each Republican candidate gets close to 20% of the black vote in this Ohio poll. How likely is it that the Republicans will get even 10% of the black vote in the Fall? Extremely unlikely.

Obama 2012

I think the big difference between 2008 and 2012 is that Obama is someone that people got to like more and more the more they got to know him ... I do not think that is the case with Mitt "I don't care about poor people" Romney.

justme

42% of respondents identify themselves as Democrats, and the President gets only 48-51%
of the votes against a Republican challenger who hasn't even started campaigning in the state. Not such good news for the President.

RonnieAndRush

justme,

Obama hasn't campaigned in the state yet either.

R-MONEY was in the state the day before the SB-5 repeal vote and he wouldn't take a position. Remember?

Blackman38435c

PPP is a democrat polling company out of NC. They generally talk only to democrats because they have the democrat donor and cell phone listings for them donated by the DNC so I wouldn't put much stock into this poll.

The DNC paid for this poll and expected a particular outcome and they got it.

Jeremy

I wouldn't put much faith in this poll. Consider the source: Public Policy Polling. Obama's got a "long row to hoe" to get past his responsibility for the economy. And Romney, whether one agrees with him or not, looks and sounds presidential. He also has his act together in regards to running a campaign. People may read in to this that his campaign organization/success might indicate how he might do running the country.

Tom Johnson

Republicans who bash this poll and its pollster need to have their facts straight!

1. Public Policy Polling is the gold standard in polling. It was rated as the second most accurate pollster in America, way ahead of others such as Rasmussen, Gallup, etc.

2. Public Policy Polling was actually found to have a slightly rightward bias in its polling despite the fact that it's a Democratic firm.

3. The 6 point partisan edge that this poll gives to Democrats (42% to 36%) is actually smaller than the partisan edge from the 2008 election (39% to 31%) so this pollster is already showing a narrowed partisan advantage for Democrats among the electorate over what happened in 2008.

Tom Johnson

Okay so I did some research and now I have figured out why Obama is doing so well in Ohio and why he will win the state easily: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-30/u-s-midwest-jobs-return-as-applesauce-joins-cars-to-lift-obama.html

The jobs are coming back to Ohio and Michigan in droves and that's good news for Obama, bad news for Republicans.

tbert

The claims that this poll isn't to be trusted are amusing. Not quite "Ron Paul will win with 127% of the vote!" amusing, but amusing nonetheless.

You can either take the data, digest it, and decide what you can do to change the way things are, or you can just try to drown it out by shouting. Your choice, but I know which one I prefer to do.

Obama 2012

It's funny how similar the comments from Blackman38435c and Jeremy are. Almost sounds like they're reading from the same script.

PPP is one of the highest rated and most accurate pollsters around. It's not their fault that the GOP presidential candidates are so terrible.

Dustin

Guys, PPP actually doesn't have a Democratic lean effect on their polls, they actually have a slight Republican tilt per 2010-2011 observations. They are always dead on accurate with their polling here in NC, and I would be these results for Ohio are very close to being realistic.

George

The final PPP polls before the november elections will be close to reality and the final PPP polls this weak in the Caucus states will also be close to reality.

Margie Bowers

Why do you never "disclose" just how few voters you "actually poll....a hundred? a thousand? five hundred?
five thousand? Statistical manipulation....If you don't poll "everyone" how can you spout these inaccurate statistics....Belieive me, Obama is NOT "UP IN OHIO".

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