Things are looking up for Barack Obama in the crucial swing state of Ohio. His opponents are unpopular, his own numbers are on the rise, and as a result he holds a healthy lead over the entire Republican field of candidates.
Obama has broken even with Ohio voters. 48% now approve of him with an equal 48% disapproving. His net approval has increased 8 points from 41/49 when PPP last polled the state in early November. The most important thing that's happened since then is Obama's base rallying around him. He's gone from a 73% approval rating with Democrats to 82%. And although he remains unpopular with independents he's still seen a 13 point net improvement with them from -26 (30/56) to -13 (40/53).
While Obama's becoming more popular, his opponents are moving backward. Only 28% of Ohioans have a favorable opinion of Mitt Romney to 56% with a negative one. Independents (30/53) and Democrats (14/73) pretty universally dislike him and he's not that hot with Republicans (43/36) either. Ron Paul (27/57) and Newt Gingrich (25/59) are even more unpopular. Rick Santorum actually has the 'best' numbers of the Republicans in Ohio at 35/48.
This is the second consecutive Ohio poll we've found Romney trailing Obama by 7-9 points on. Obama has a 45-40 lead with independents and a more unified party behind him, as he's getting 84% of the Democratic vote to Romney's 80% of the Republicans. The race will definitely tighten since only 4% of Democrats are undecided compared to 11% of Republicans but still, this is a pretty good trend for Obama in the state. An electoral college analysis we did last month found that if Obama could win any one state out of Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina he would probably win reelection.
One caveat: in March of 2008 we polled Ohio when the current situation was reversed- the Republicans knew who their nominee was, while Democrats were still engaged in a bloody fight to determine theirs. We found John McCain leading Obama 49-41 at that point and of course in the end Obama won the state by 4 points in the fall. So while this is a good place for Obama to be it could change quite a bit once Republicans all get on the same page.
Full results here
It has got to be the economy....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-30/u-s-midwest-jobs-return-as-applesauce-joins-cars-to-lift-obama.html
Posted by: George | February 01, 2012 at 12:12 PM
One of the problems Republicans have is that they are getting unrealistically high percentages of the black vote in this and other polls. For example, each Republican candidate gets close to 20% of the black vote in this Ohio poll. How likely is it that the Republicans will get even 10% of the black vote in the Fall? Extremely unlikely.
Posted by: Tom Johnson | February 01, 2012 at 12:15 PM
I think the big difference between 2008 and 2012 is that Obama is someone that people got to like more and more the more they got to know him ... I do not think that is the case with Mitt "I don't care about poor people" Romney.
Posted by: Obama 2012 | February 01, 2012 at 12:58 PM
42% of respondents identify themselves as Democrats, and the President gets only 48-51%
of the votes against a Republican challenger who hasn't even started campaigning in the state. Not such good news for the President.
Posted by: justme | February 01, 2012 at 01:42 PM
justme,
Obama hasn't campaigned in the state yet either.
R-MONEY was in the state the day before the SB-5 repeal vote and he wouldn't take a position. Remember?
Posted by: RonnieAndRush | February 01, 2012 at 03:51 PM
PPP is a democrat polling company out of NC. They generally talk only to democrats because they have the democrat donor and cell phone listings for them donated by the DNC so I wouldn't put much stock into this poll.
The DNC paid for this poll and expected a particular outcome and they got it.
Posted by: Blackman38435c | February 01, 2012 at 05:43 PM
I wouldn't put much faith in this poll. Consider the source: Public Policy Polling. Obama's got a "long row to hoe" to get past his responsibility for the economy. And Romney, whether one agrees with him or not, looks and sounds presidential. He also has his act together in regards to running a campaign. People may read in to this that his campaign organization/success might indicate how he might do running the country.
Posted by: Jeremy | February 02, 2012 at 02:15 AM
Republicans who bash this poll and its pollster need to have their facts straight!
1. Public Policy Polling is the gold standard in polling. It was rated as the second most accurate pollster in America, way ahead of others such as Rasmussen, Gallup, etc.
2. Public Policy Polling was actually found to have a slightly rightward bias in its polling despite the fact that it's a Democratic firm.
3. The 6 point partisan edge that this poll gives to Democrats (42% to 36%) is actually smaller than the partisan edge from the 2008 election (39% to 31%) so this pollster is already showing a narrowed partisan advantage for Democrats among the electorate over what happened in 2008.
Posted by: Tom Johnson | February 02, 2012 at 11:36 AM
Okay so I did some research and now I have figured out why Obama is doing so well in Ohio and why he will win the state easily: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-30/u-s-midwest-jobs-return-as-applesauce-joins-cars-to-lift-obama.html
The jobs are coming back to Ohio and Michigan in droves and that's good news for Obama, bad news for Republicans.
Posted by: Tom Johnson | February 02, 2012 at 11:47 AM
The claims that this poll isn't to be trusted are amusing. Not quite "Ron Paul will win with 127% of the vote!" amusing, but amusing nonetheless.
You can either take the data, digest it, and decide what you can do to change the way things are, or you can just try to drown it out by shouting. Your choice, but I know which one I prefer to do.
Posted by: tbert | February 02, 2012 at 12:21 PM
It's funny how similar the comments from Blackman38435c and Jeremy are. Almost sounds like they're reading from the same script.
PPP is one of the highest rated and most accurate pollsters around. It's not their fault that the GOP presidential candidates are so terrible.
Posted by: Obama 2012 | February 02, 2012 at 12:41 PM
Guys, PPP actually doesn't have a Democratic lean effect on their polls, they actually have a slight Republican tilt per 2010-2011 observations. They are always dead on accurate with their polling here in NC, and I would be these results for Ohio are very close to being realistic.
Posted by: Dustin | February 02, 2012 at 02:11 PM
The final PPP polls before the november elections will be close to reality and the final PPP polls this weak in the Caucus states will also be close to reality.
Posted by: George | February 02, 2012 at 07:05 PM
Why do you never "disclose" just how few voters you "actually poll....a hundred? a thousand? five hundred?
five thousand? Statistical manipulation....If you don't poll "everyone" how can you spout these inaccurate statistics....Belieive me, Obama is NOT "UP IN OHIO".
Posted by: Margie Bowers | February 15, 2012 at 09:46 AM