Obama up big in Michigan

Michigan is looking more and more like it won't be in the swing state column this fall.  PPP's newest poll there finds Barack Obama leading the entire Republican field by double digits.

The biggest surprise in the numbers might be how badly Obama is beating Mitt Romney- he leads him by 16 points at 54-38. That's a major departure from PPP's previous 3 Michigan President polls, which found Obama ahead by only 4-7 points. Romney's seen a major decline in his personal favorability in the state over the last 6 months from 39/43 to now 29/58. His numbers have dropped across the board but the most striking shift is with independents. He's gone from a +14 spread with them at 48/34 to a -20 one at 32/52.

52% of Michigan voters support the bailout of the auto industry when they look back on it to 36% opposed. With that majority who support it, Romney's favorability is 19/75 and he trails Obama 81-15. 62% of Republican voters oppose the bailout to only 24% supportive so that issue may not hurt Romney too much in the primary, but his stance could take the state off the board for him in November.

The strongest Republican candidate in Michigan is actually Rick Santorum, who trails Obama by only 11 points at 50-39. Our recent polling has been punching some holes in Romney's electability argument. National numbers we released yesterday showed Santorum a couple points stronger than Romney, and when you average out our last 5 battleground state polls in Michigan, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, and Minnesota there's no difference between Romney and Santorum's strength against Obama.

Obama's up to a 52% approval rating in the state, the best numbers we've found for him there since he took office.  44% of voters disapprove. 53% think the Obama administration has been a good thing for the Michigan economy to only 41% who believe it has not been. Obama's benefiting from a unified Democratic base (89/7) and he's flipped his numbers with independents from negative territory at 41/53 last summer to positive ground at 48/44.

Rounding out the field Obama leads Ron Paul by 18 points at 52-34 and Newt Gingrich by 22 points at 56-34.

On another note we asked voters what they thought about Clint Eastwood's Super Bowl ad. 56% had a favorable impression of it to 13% with a negative one and 27% having no opinion. Only 19% thought the ad was pro-Obama while 62% thought it was not and 20% expressed no opinion.

Full results here

Comments

[AVD911]

You are the best. I am so glad this poll validated what we feel here in Michigan.Half my family tied to the auto industry for decades!

[steve miller]

Color me shocked; another PPP poll giving Obama the edge.

Laughable

[Obama 2012]

I expect Santorum's #s vs. Obama to decrease significantly if he becomes the nominee and non-political junkies find out what a far right wing nut he is on social issues.

I've mentioned this in other comments but I really think this could be the perfect storm for Santorum - he is peaking at the perfect time... this is also perfect for the Obama campaign because most of the things that will turn off independent voters about Santorum won't really work with the right wing voters that vote in GOP primaries.

I know there are some "very serious people" who are pretending like Santorum would be a reasonable candidate for the Republicans this fall but I don't buy it at all for even a second.

[George]

Obama is clearly beating the GOP in Michigan by a solid margin based on other polls as well although the margin is subject to debate. I do not know whether you can consider Minnesota a swing state anymore. Unless there is a total economic meltdown, Obama will win Michigan although things may be different in PA! As of now it is the Obama team that is singing Hail to the Victors!

[C.R.]

The people such as Steve Miller who post derogatory comments about the PPP polls are unbelievable. If you don't like the numbers then go out and talk to your friends and family and try to influence the election to go the way you want but don't blame the poll. There have been many times that I have looked at polls including PPP and seen the Presidents numbers down the tubes and didn't like it, but I don't write in and accuse the polls of trying to pull a fast one. You sound childish sir. Such talk is beneath a grown man. The numbers are what they are.

[Paul]

@ Steve: So laughable that it is confirmed by almost ever other polling firm! How does repeated sampling work!

[pbrower2a]

The only good news for Republicans is that they will have little temptation to put effort into defeating President Obama in Michigan. At this stage it looks like a rerun of 2008.

[George]

@Obama2012..your arguments are valid if and only if the economy continues to recover and unemployment continues to drop. However, one caveat, the oil speculative vultures are circling like sharks smelling blood.

As far as the numbers are concerned, I am not surprised considering the current economic situation in Michigan...

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/02/bail-out-politics-even-michigans-economy-is-improving/

"In fact, it’s been very good news: Tax revenues have jumped so dramatically that Michigan now enjoys a $457 million budget surplus."

And let us not forget that Romney is still railing against the auto bailout.

[Obama 2012]

George - Yes, if the economy goes south before November then things could get dicey for Obama but I think in that scenario he would far rather be facing Santorum than Romney.

And really --- in the other scenario (where the economy continues to improve) it won't really matter who he is facing.

[JNagarya]

And nationally President Obama is winning big on the contraception issue -- even with Republican and Catholic women.

So what does the Party Of No, No, No, and again No, and Always No doing in the face of that? Going after everything related to women's health care in addition to contraception.

AND trying to pass a law that would give employers a veto over aspects of health care to which "morally" opposed.

So they want to get gov't out of our lives -- when it comes to regulating the criminal class back into its cell -- by redirecting gov't to shove it up women's vaginas.

Mark Twain called Congress "that grand old benevolent national asylum for the helpless". That is certainly the nature of the Party of No (etc.), which is currently being led by the nose by the teadupes over a cliff. Better they over the cliff this time, instead of the economy.

[Will Chase]

This is a no-brainer...it would have been easy for President Obama to bail on the auto industry, but he didn't. He believed in the American auto worker and now he can (and should) revel in their recent successes..Thank you President Obama!

Trust me, once the greater public gets to know Santorum, they will dislike him more than Romney...just as his home state does. I think I read yesterday in the 2006 Pennsylvania senate race, Santorum was defeated by the largest margin for a sitting senator for something like 50 years! (?)

All Republicans have is hate for Obama, and that's not going to get it done in November...4 more years!!

[Chris Demarco]

Things sure do change in just a few months. Looks like this article had it wrong, and this is a battleground state. That double digit lead is down to 5 points in Obama's favor now. If that trend continues, Romney will take it!