Momentum back toward Santorum in MI?

PPP's final poll in Michigan finds Rick Santorum holding on to the smallest of leads with 38% to 37% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Ron Paul, and 9% for Newt Gingrich.

It's always good to be cautious with one night poll numbers, but momentum seems to be swinging in Santorum's direction. Romney led with those interviewed on Sunday, but Santorum has a 39-34 advantage with folks polled on Monday. The best sign that things have gone back toward Santorum might be that with those polled today who hadn't already voted, Santorum's advantage was 41-31.

Much has been made of Democratic efforts to turn out the vote for Santorum and we see evidence that's actually happening. Romney leads with actual Republican voters, 43-38. But Santorum's up 47-10 with Democratic voters, and even though they're only 8% of the likely electorate that's enough to put him over the top. The big question now is whether those folks will actually bother to show up and vote tomorrow.

Even though things seem to be moving back in Santorum's direction, there's one big reason to think that Romney will still come out as the winner tomorrow night. 18% of the electorate has already cast its ballots and with those voters in the bank Romney has a 56-29 advantage. Santorum's likely to win election day voters, but he''s going to have to do it by a wide margin to erase the lead Romney has stored. We see Santorum with a 40-33 advantage among those who have yet to vote.

Romney hasn't made a good last impression on Michigan voters. His favorability in Sunday interviews was 57/36, but in Monday interviews it was only 47/48. Santorum saw little difference in his reviews between the two days: 54/39 on Sunday and 56/36 on Monday. If Romney does indeed end up losing tomorrow there's not much doubt he will have blown it in the final 48 hours.

We've seen a lot of the Republican contests so far shift dramatically in the final week...this has the potential to be the first one that's shifted twice in the final week. It's going to be interesting.

Full results here

Comments

[Jen]

If Romney does indeed end up losing tomorrow there's not much doubt he will have blown it in the final 48 hours.
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Maybe it's the other way around: Santorum won it in the final 48 hours by doubling down on the crazy (you're a snob if you go to college/no separation btwn church and state).

[Matt Y.]

Question, you said 55% of Santorum Democrats like him, 40% don't. How many of Romney's Democratic voters like him?

[Dewayne]

In 2008, 7% of the Republican primary voters were Democrats.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#MIREP

Page 4 for breakdown by party.

[Paul]

"Romney leads with actual Republican voters, 43-38. But Santorum's up 47-10 with Democratic voters, and even though they're only 8% of the likely electorate that's enough to put him over the top."
This doesn't add up. The above scenario would actually result in a nearly two-point victory for Romney:
Romney:(43 * .92) + (10 * .08) = 40.36
Santorum: (38 * .92) + (47 * .08) = 38.72

[mike g]

Its sad watching Americans vote for these banking elite puppets. Ron Paul is the only one telling people the truth.

[Jenny]

Santorum's appeal is to the "Reagan democrats", who are blue collar workers, who will vote republican when it suits their economic interests.

[vickie tufts]

go Santorum You could't pay me to vote for Romney! The sob who loves to fire people and his wife who has two caddilacs!

[Mr. Derp]

Romney won Michigan by 30,000 votes. Got any more deceptive inacurate polling data to sway voters, or will you start telling the truth?

[claire]

trashy pollster... another egg in your face!!!!!

obviously a biased pro-Obama and anti-Romney pollster which misleads potential voters.

so much for accuracy... you are among the most inaccurate pollster this cycle.