Michigan GOP race tightens

The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4. He leads with 37% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 10% for Newt Gingrich.

The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum's favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.

What we're seeing in Michigan is a very different story from Florida where Romney surged by effectively destroying his opponent's image- here Romney's gains have more to do with building himself up.

Groups Santorum has double digit leads with include Protestants (up 47-30), union members (up 43-23), Evangelicals (up 51-24), Tea Partiers (up 55-20), 'very conservative' voters (up 54-23), and men (up 40-28).

Romney is leading the field with women (38-34), seniors (42-34), moderates (35-24), 'somewhat conservative' voters (40-34), and Catholics (43-31).

Newt Gingrich's continued presence in the race is helping Romney a lot. If he dropped 45% of his supporters would go to Santorum, compared to only 29% for Romney and it would push Santorum's lead over Romney up to 42-33. 47% of primary voters think Gingrich should drop out while only 40% believe he should continue on, but he's certainly not showing any indication he'll leave.

Santorum's advantage over Romney seems to be a reflection of voters being more comfortable with where he is ideologically. 48% of voters think Santorum has more similar beliefs to them, compared to only 32% who pick Romney on that question. 63% of primary voters think Santorum's views are 'about right' compared to only 42% who say that for Romney. 37% believe that Romney is 'too liberal.'

Other notes from Michigan:

-Romney's bailout stance isn't hurting him. 34% of voters say they're more likely to vote for someone opposed to the bailout, while only 27% consider that opposition a negative. 35% say it doesn't make a difference to them either way.

-Romney's endorsement by Rick Snyder probably doesn't have much to do with his surge in the last week. Only 13% of primary voters say Snyder's endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Romney, while 28% actually consider it a negative and 57% say it doesn't make a difference either way. Those numbers are similar to what we found on a Nikki Haley endorsement in South Carolina.

-Romney's still not convincing anyone that he's a Michigander- only 29% of voters consider him to be one, while 62% do not. But given that he's risen in the polls over the last week without making any progress on that front, it looks like it doesn't really matter whether or not Michigan Republicans consider him to be one of their own.

This is still an extremely volatile race. 36% of voters say they could change their minds in the next week. 69% of Romney's supporters are strongly committed to him, compared to only 63% of Santorum's backers. With momentum on his side and a more reliable group of supporters there are plenty of reasons to think Romney can continue this comeback and win next week.

Full results here

Comments

[JJ]

Mitt Mitt, hes the man, if he cant do it no one can!!!

[VJ Machiavelli]

It will go down to the wire and the winner will be ?

Since it is not winner take all Romney and Santorum will get about the same amount of delegates and if Ron Paul keeps polling 15% or more he to will pick up a delegate or to.

Newt needs to make an effort so he does not get shutout.

Before there was the "Oracle of Delphi" there was Count Vampire J. Machiavelli

VJ Machiavelli
Power to the People who "VOTE"

[Erlinda]

Between Santorum Social Conservative views and who can put this country together in terms of Fiscal Conservatism, I'll vote for Romney. I trust him to be the next president of the United States. Go Mitt!!

[Erlinda]

Well, I'm glad to know Romney is gaining in the poll. Thanks PPP.

[Allen]

PPP is still having a hard time not COOKING their polls in Michigan, anti-Romney polling.

In this cooked poll:

1. Men were over polled .......53% woman only at 47%

2. Evangelicals were 41% in this poll but only make up 27% of Michigan voters

3. Conservative and Very Conservatives were overpolled at nearly 70% of these respondents.

PPP is showing their a true Democrat Polling firm.

[Obama 2012]

I fully support Operation Hilarity. Here's hoping enough Michigan Democrats vote for Santorum to put Santorum over the top on the 28th even if Romney continues his gains among Republican voters.

[Dustin Ingalls]

Allen, you've gotta be kidding me.

1.) Men always outnumber women in GOP primaries because they also outnumber them in the GOP at large. It's the opposite in the Democratic primary and in the general electorate.

2.) We went over this in the comments for another poll. If evangelicals are 27% of Michigan's electorate, that means they're going to be a higher proportion in the party almost all of them belong to.

3.) This is consistent with every poll we've done anywhere. Nearly all of Republicans identify as conservatives.

[Messy]

how are Roemer and Karger doing? They're on the ballot too....

[Dave]

I live in Michigan and everyone I know is puzzled by this supposed Romney surge. Everyone has been leaving the Romney bandwagon here, not joining it! And Romney gains 11 points in 2 days for no apparent reason? Is this more shenanigans like Maine and Iowa? Something is rotten in Detroit.

[Ssupak]

Good news for Ricky:

Trump will be campaigning in MI for Willard.

Even Operation Hilarity won't have an impact like Trump.

[P R Westbrooke]

I am an elder Independent. I tend to vote Republican in all national elections. I do not like, nor will I ever vote for an extremist such as Santorum. I just do not like Newt as he has too much unpleasant baggage. I like Paul but he is also too extreme in his fiscal beliefs. So, I will continue to endorse Romney to every one I can hope to influence. I will vote for him in the Texas election.

[Ron]

I can't believe republicans in Michigan and Ohio support the garbage coming out of Santorum's mouth. Especially women.

[HDS26234]

The only man that can save America from going to hell, is none other than Ron Paul. He is the voice in the wilderness that of the Founding Fathers!

[susi]

ONLY ROMNEY FAER TO OBAMA ..THATS WHY ALL MEDIA TRYING HARD TO NUKE ROMNEY ...Just like Evangelicals bigots their preacher spread hatred for professional POLITICAL SMEAR all just about money and get power they love to vote SANDUSKY, OBAMA , Jeffrey Dahmer THAN MORMON..

is Santorum God himself now?? Arrogant hypocrite. The biggest thread to this nation is its big fat debt. Mr. Santorum (El Santo) is showing himself as conservative HOAX but he is a BIG government ,was voted for PLANNED PARENTHOOD AND TONS EARMARK

[susi]

UNIONS IN MI VOTE POPE SANTORUM N IN THE FALL VOTE OBAMA because they know the pope zealot and liberal spender.
ONLY BIGOTS VOTE THE WEAKNESS BECAUSE THEY WANT OBAMA.
Santorum is a POS who couldn't even get reelected in his own state! No way this loser are going to beat Obama

[Mike]

I didn't realize the Iron Sheik read this blog.

[susi]

Santorum defends pharmaceutical companies profits over helping children suffering with cancer. Why? Because Santorum has been paid by Big Pharma for years. His warped sense of Christianity is a pick and choose set of principles.
HIS ZEALOT LIBERAL SPENDING WILL BE TURN OFF INDEPENDENT AND MODERATE, Thats why Obama will be WIN SECOND TERM ,EVERY VOTE MADE OUT OF BIGOTRY (Evangelicals) IS VOTE FOR OBAMA ,GOP party not only they will be wipe out and they are deserve it
Santorum is a POS who couldn't even get reelected in his own state!no way this LOSER are going to beat Obama

[Donovan]

Santorum LUNATIC JERK ....
HIS CAMPAIGNE A HOLIER-THAN-THOU he is arrogant and hypocrite very bad way , he is exploiting his contrived religious prowess for politicla gain to cover up his Liberal spender , he is scum of the earth.
This
This guy is making it way too easy for the dems.

i'd say the Dems would love for him to win the nom as he'll be crushed by Obama.
Romney would put up a better fight.

Zealot Santorum IS THE GIFT FROM GOD TO OBAMA

[Ssupak]

Hey, Susi, you won for "strangest comment in the history" of PPP's blog! You should be proud!

And if Santorum is God, then what does that make Dan Savage?

[Dave Pearson]

The problem with what Rick Santorum is trying to do is trying to make the US Presidency ONLY something that a 'traditional Christian' can attain to.

Note how he is dissing Obama as a Christian. (Now, I don't think Obama is a Christian either. But I don't think that since the US Constitution requires a religious test for office, no one else should either)!

Since Mitt Romney is a member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints (yes, it's official name since the 1830's), and yes, popularly (or unpopularly) known as the "Mormon Church" (for their belief in "The Book of Mormon" as a book of scripture at par with the Bible), he is excluded from that club, supposedly. (NOTE: Mormons do believe that Jesus is the Christ. They don't, however, believe that 'Father in Heaven' and 'Jesus Christ' are one person — though they DO believe that since these two with the Holy Ghost work in perfect unity, they ARE ONE GOD). But, since this is one of the main things that 'traditional Christians' (Catholic, Protestant, and Orthodox) claim separates "Mormons" from them; they say that "Mormons" are not Christians; while Mormons declare and affirm, all the same, they are indeed.

Santorum is apparently running as a sanctimonious "Pastor-in-Chief". Will he try to unite the priesthood and the presidency? Will only 'traditional Christians' be suitable for office (despite what the US Constitution prohibits)?

[Janice]

They all make me want to up chuck. I don't like Newt's private life but he just might be able to help the financial end of the issues as well as gaining respect by being a leader in the World.

[Albert N. Milliron]

Politisite Political Projections: Michigan Primary Tuesday February 28, 2012 has the race as a tossup as well. Looks to us that Romney may pull out a slim victory.. but the numbers are right at 36.5% each. We also Have Ron Paul third and Gingrich fourth. http://wp.me/pOe4O-aac

In Arizona, a bit different story, we have Romney with a 15.7 point lead.

[Sophie]

907 is the area code for Alaska. I hope that in your crosstabs, you meant to refer to 906 (area code for the Upper Peninsula.) It would be rather unfortunate if you had accidentally polled the wrong state.